Thursday Night Football: Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds & NFL Betting Picks
Week 9 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers. Don’t expect this NFC Championship rematch to look anything like the game played 10 months ago. Both teams will be without key players due to a combination of injuries and coronavirus protocols. However, it’s the 49ers who get the shortest end of the stick, leaving the defending NFC champs as 7.5-point underdogs Thursday morning.
Thursday Night Football Betting Odds
Green Bay Packers
A few weeks ago the Packers were thought to be conference favorites. They started the season 4-0, covering the spread in each game and winning twice as underdogs. They have since lost two of their last three games — first, in a 10-38 blowout in Tampa Bay and most recently in a 22-28 loss at home against a 1-5 Vikings squad.
Now the Packers (+1400) sit below the Bucs (+700) and the Seahawks (+850) in terms of Super Bowl odds and NFC teams, and the Saints (+1500) aren’t far behind.
After opening as a decent longshot with +2500 odds to win his third NFL MVP, Rodgers’ odds have shortened to +1000 across the online sports betting industry. The 36-year-old soared up the MVP board by leading one of the league’s most proficient offenses. The Packers rank 6th in Yards Per Play and 1st in Points Per Drive despite being relatively stagnant against both the Bucs and Vikings. Rodgers’ offense performs particularly well in early-down situations, ranking 2nd Early Down Success Rate, per GridironIQ.
The Packers have indeed been the beneficiaries of a weak early-season schedule that included a handful of porous defenses. The Vikings, Texans, Lions and Falcons haven’t been able to stop anyone much less one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. The Vikings defense had a bit more success in the rivals’ second meeting of the season last week, but it’s not the Packers’ recent offensive performance that I’m concerned about. The windy weather conditions, coupled with an injury to Aaron Jones and the return of Dalvin Cook, did not play to the Packers’ strengths.
However, a defense that has allowed 28+ points in more than half of their games is a reason for disconcertment in Title Town. The Packers’ defensive line, one that was explosive in 2019, continues to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but this year the pressure isn’t translating to sacks. Led by the “Smith Bros,” Green Bay is 3rd in Pressure% but only 23rd and Sack%. Expect Za’darius and Preston to start taking down the quarterback soon.
But even if they do, defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has to find a way to slow down opposing running backs if this team wants to make another deep playoff run. Pettine will emphasize run-stopping tonight against an offense that is without their starting quarterback, tight end, left tackle and three of their top wide receivers
Note: RB Aaron Jones is listed as questionable and WR Allen Lazard did make the team flight to San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers
The 2020 season has been a bloodbath for the San Francisco 49ers’ roster, and things don’t get any prettier for them in Week 9. On short rest, the 49ers and head coach Kyle Shanahan have to adjust after placing four key players on reserved Covid list following their Week 8 loss to the Seahawks.
That means backup quarterback Nick Mullens will be without wide receivers Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Ayuik on top of already missing tight end George Kittle due to an ankle injury. So to whom will Mullens be throwing? Trent Taylor, Richie James and Kevin White at wideout. At tight end, it’ll be Ross Dwelley and possibly Jordan Reed. Reed has returned from the IR and was limited in practice on Tuesday.
I expect Reed to suit up. If he does, the veteran tight end makes an interesting DFS pick in tonight’s showdown contests. When Kittle was missing earlier this season, Reed filled in by gaining 50 yards on seven receptions and reaching paydirt twice against the Giants. The following week, Reed was targeted six times against the Jets.
Don’t let Reed distract you from the 49ers’ running game, though. Shanahan will be calling an excessively run-heavy script, which means Mullens will be handing it off to JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon more often than not.
As I mentioned earlier, the Packers have been awful stopping the run, and one of the best offensive play-callers in the league will look to take advantage of them while even adding some creativity with runs to the full back and receivers. Whether a run or a pass play, all things will be a bit more difficult for the 49ers without LT Trent Williams.
Packers vs. 49ers NFL Betting Pick
We were on the right side of the line movement getting in early on this game with our Week 9 Betting Picks. By betting on it early, we grabbed the Packers -3.5. That line has widened to Packers -7.5 at most sportsbooks on Thursday.
Regardless of the 49ers’ injury concerns, that’s a lot of points. If you grabbed the Packers -3.5, then here’s an opportunity for you to try to middle the game. If you’re late to the party and still want to bet the Packers, then sign up at FanDuel where they’re still -7 rather than -7.5 elsewhere.
Among all current options, I think this is a great spot to PointsBet the Packers. By PointsBetting, you can take the Packers -8.5 and win more money for every point the Packers score above the PointsBetting spread. Even better, you get a $250 risk-free PointsBet by signing up here! And of course, be sure to read our “PointsBet review” for more information about the new U.S. sportsbook.
I like PointsBetting this game because I think this game definitely has a chance of getting out of hand. While the 49ers could cover in a 7-point game, I don’t see them pulling off the upset, so I think we have a much better chance at a large reward rather than punishment.
Thursday Night Football Pick: Packers -8.5 (PointsBetting)
Packers vs. 49ers Props
Davante Adams Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (via PointsBet) – Adams has three games under 61 yards. One of those games he was injured in the first quarter, another was his first game back from injury, and the third game was in windy weather conditions. Aside from those, Adams has racked up 196 and 156 yards, making this a good prop to again PointsBet (Over 91 yards) if you have the itch for a big payout. If Aaron Jones is out, the Packers are left with only two running backs, which could keep Aaron Rodgers passing even with a big lead. You can also PointsBet Over 22 fantasy points for Adams, which I don’t hate. Of course, an early injury that knocks Adams out of the game would be brutal.
Robert Tonyan Over 36.5 Receiving Yards – Tonyan caught five passes for 79 yards against the Vikings. He was in on 68% of plays and saw an 18% target share. He’s turning into Rodgers’ second-favorite option, and he might be relied upon even more this game with Jamaal Williams placed on the covid reserve list.
More NFL Week 9 Lines
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