Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | +128 |
| Braves Odds | -138 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 12 |
| Time | 4:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Wednesday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will battle in Game 2 of the National League Division Series at Truist Park. In Game 1, the Phillies’ offense tagged Max Fried for six runs in the first four innings en route to a 7-6 victory. In Game 2, Philadelphia will send their ace, Zack Wheeler, to the mound. He will be opposed by Kyle Wright. Oddsmakers expect Atlanta to bounce-back in this spot, pricing them as -138 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the National League Divisions Series.
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler put together another excellent campaign in 2022, delivering a 2.82 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 2.89 FIP, and a 1.04 WHIP in 153.0 innings of work. A late-season trip to the injured list eliminated any hope that the veteran right-hander had in the National League Cy Young award race, but there is still little doubt that Wheeler was one of the best pitchers in the league this summer when healthy. His return to the mound in September allowed Phillies’ fans to breathe a sigh of relief – knowing that their best pitcher would likely be available for the postseason. Even more promising, Wheeler had a 0.60 ERA, 2.18 ERA, 28.8 strikeout percentage, 1.9 percent walk rate, and a 0.67 WHIP in 15.0 innings across his final three turns through the rotation. Wheeler is lethal against both right- and left-handed batters, meaning that he is matchup-proof regardless of how the opposing lineup is constructed. In the Wild Card round, Wheeler held the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless for 6.1 innings before handing things over to the bullpen. During the regular season, Wheeler delivered a quality start in all three outings that he had against the Braves. Expect him to be strong again on Wednesday.
Philadelphia hit right-handed pitching better than almost any other team in the league during the month of September. Across the last 30 days heading into the playoffs, the Phillies’ offense ranked 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 12th in walk rate, and 8th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. In that stretch, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, Bryston Stott, and Rhys Hoskins each posted a .722 OPS or better against right-handed pitching. Schwarber and Realmuto combined for 16 home runs in only 167 such plate appearances. In two games against the Cardinals in the opening round, Philadelphia scored all eight of their runs against right-handers. This group should have no shortage of quality at-bats in this matchup.
Yesterday, the Phillies appeared on their way to a comfortable victory, but ended up having to use six different relievers – who combined to allow five earned runs in 5.2 innings. Connor Brogdon, Seranthony Dominguez, Zach Eflin, and Andrew Bellatti each tossed at least 17 pitches. Eflin struggled mightily in the 9th inning for the second time in three appearances this fall, which may prompt Manager Rob Thomson to consider other options if Philadelphia finds themselves in a save situation in Game 2. Following the All-Star break, the Phillies’ arm barn ranked 11th in FIP, 29th in WHIP, 10th in strikeout percentage, 23rd in walk rate, and 28th in left-on-base percentage. The late innings will continue to be a concern for this team going forward.
Atlanta Braves
Prior to 2022, Kyle Wright owned a 6.56 ERA, 6.56 FIP, and a 1.69 WHIP in 70.0 innings at the Major League level. Heading into 2022, he elevated his curveball usage from 14.3 percentage to 34.1 percent, which radically changed the course of his career. Wright finished the regular season with a 3.19 ERA, 3.89 xERA, 3.58 FIP, and a 1.16 WHIP – establishing himself as one of the better young talents in the league. He was at his best when pitching in the comfort of his home ballpark this year, with a 3.19 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP at Truist Park. If there is any concern for Wright in this matchup, it is his continued struggles against left-handed batters – against which, he had a 4.08 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP this season. Wright will need to find a way to limit the damage done by Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh in this one if he wants to be successful. In three regular season outings against Philadelphia, Wright allowed only six earned runs across 19.0 innings, and never allowed more than three earned runs in any of his trips to the hill.
The Braves struggled mightily down the stretch against southpaws, which bled over into Game 1, during which they managed only one run off of Ranger Suarez in the early portion of the contest. Atlanta’s offensive outlook is more promising in Game 2, despite facing a more talented starter for the Phillies. Across the final month of the regular season, Atlanta’s offense ranked 5th in OPS, 1st in ISO, and 5th in HardHit percentage against right-handed pitching. Even if this lineup does not do much damage against Wheeler in the early frames, they should have plenty of scoring opportunities in the late innings against a weak Phillies’ relief corps – as bettors witnessed on Tuesday.
Atlanta has, arguably, the best bullpen of any team left playing baseball this October. The depth of this unit was on full display in Game 1, with Jesse Chavez, Dylan Lee, Collin McHugh, and Jackson Stephens combining to allow only one earned run in 5.2 innings of work. The high-leverage options at Manager Brian Snitker’s disposal never even made their way into the contest. In last fall’s 16-game run to a World Series title, Manager Brian Snitker used Tyler Matzek in 13 games, Luke Jackson in 11 games, and Will Smith in 11 games out of the arm barn. In 2022, Snitker has even more talent at his disposal, with Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, McHugh, and Lee each offering plus-talent in the latter frames. Atlanta’s relief corps ranked 5th in FIP, 4th in WHIP, and 5th in strikeout percentage during the second-half of the season. If they get ahead early, expect Snitker to be extremely aggressive with this talented group in Game 2.
Phillies vs. Braves Pick
From September 1st until the end of the regular season, the Phillies and Braves had two of the worst first inning offenses in all of baseball. In that span, the Phillies ranked 24th in OPS and 13th in ISO. The Braves ranked 29th in OPS and 25th in ISO. According to props.cash, Zack Wheeler was 11-2 in his road starts during 2022, in terms of keeping the opponent off of the scoreboard in the opening frame. Kyle Wright delivered a scoreless first inning in 15 of his 17 home starts. At playable odds, this is a good spot for bettors to attack the first six outs of the game.
PICKS: No Run First Inning (-136)
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