Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Game 1 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | +175 |
| Braves Odds | -210 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 6:00 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
After sweeping the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card round, the Philadelphia Phillies have earned a trip to the NL Division Series against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves were an MLB-best 104-58 during the regular season, finishing with the most runs scored and the best run differential of any team in the league. In Game 1, Philadelphia will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez, who will be opposed by Spencer Strider for Atlanta. First pitch is set for 6:00 p.m. ET from Truist Park.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Braves as -210 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Philadelphia Phillies
Ranger Suarez toes the rubber for Phillies in Game 1
Forced to play in the Wild Card round, the Phillies have neither Zack Wheeler nor Aaron Nola ready to start Game 1 of their Division Series matchup against the Braves. Instead, they will turn to Ranger Suarez, who finished the regular season with a 4.18 ERA, 4.36 xERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. Suarez was particularly poor down the stretch in September, posting a 5.20 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP in his last five turns through the rotation. Though Suarez gets ahead in the count frequently, his inability to miss bats on a regular basis coupled with a mediocre chase rate leads to more walks than the league average hurler. Philadelphia has a day off between Game 1 and Game 2 in this series, plus the benefit of a deep, rested bullpen. Expect manager Rob Thompson to be extremely quick to go to his arm barn on Saturday if needed.
Philadelphia bats look to stay hot
In two games against the Marlins earlier this week, the Phillies scored four runs in the series opener and seven runs in Game 2 to punch their ticket to the Division Series. The damage could have been even more significant if they were better able to convert baserunners into runs scored. In those two games, Philadelphia went only 5-for-23 (.217 batting average) with runners-in-scoring position. There is no discernable weakness in this lineup from top-to-bottom at this point in the season – which is saying a lot, considering the fact that Rhys Hoskins has missed the entire year to date with a torn ACL suffered during Spring Training. The Phillies were a top-10 offense against right-handed pitching in September. Expect them to have another productive day at the dish in Game 1 against Spencer Strider.
Can the Phillies’ bullpen get back on track?
Heading into October, there was little doubt as to whether the Phillies’ bullpen had enough talent to win the World Series. The larger question was whether or not that talent was going to show up on the field. In their opening round matchup against the Marlins, the relief corps allowed only one earned run across 4.1 innings of work, which should be viewed as a success. However, it is worth noting that Gregory Soto, Craig Kimbrel, and Seranthony Dominguez all struggled to a 4.11 FIP or worse across the final two months of the regular season. There is not another bullpen in the playoffs with as much firepower as Philadelphia, but with great firepower comes little consistency, evidently. This will be an area to watch over the next week of action.
Atlanta Braves
Is Spencer Strider capable of performing on the big stage?
Spencer Strider was in contention for the National League Cy Young award for the majority of the summer but flamed out down the stretch, struggling to a 5.67 ERA across his last six turns in the rotation. Though his 3.20 FIP during that stretch suggests he was more unlucky than bad, it is worth noting that Strider was not getting as many swings at pitches outside of the zone as he was earlier in the year, and he was allowing far more contact on pitches that were swung at inside the strike zone. Strider, primarily a two-pitch unicorn, is more vulnerable than his reputation suggests.
Will Atlanta’s juggernaut offense make an appearance in October?
Collectively, the Braves had one of the most impressive offensive seasons in the history of baseball. Ronald Acuna Jr. had the first 40-homer, 70-stolen base season in MLB history – oh, and he also batted .337 with 35 doubles. Matt Olson had 54 home runs and was one of five different players in Atlanta’s offense to collect at least 97 runs-batted-in. Seven different starters for the Braves posted an OPS of at least .808 this summer, which has not been talked about enough by pundits. Atlanta finished the regular season ranked 1st in OPS and 1st in ISO against southpaws. This group should have no trouble putting pressure on Ranger Suarez in the early going on Saturday.
Is Atlanta’s bullpen a concern?
From September 1 to the end of the regular season, only the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels (both non-playoff teams) had a worse bullpen FIP than Atlanta. During that time period, the Braves ranked 28th in FIP, 24th in WHIP, 14th in strikeout rate, and 11th in walk percentage. When Atlanta won the World Series in 2021, manager Brian Snitker abused his top relievers on a nightly basis to get outs in the latter stages of ball games. He does not have the same level of elite backend talent that he did two years ago in October.
Phillies vs. Braves – Picks & Predictions
Spencer Strider has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the game of baseball, but when he doesn’t get swings and misses, it often results in a lot of damage. Strider allowed more barreled-balls than the league average pitcher in 2023, and his 13th percentile ground ball rate makes him susceptible to the long ball against a Philadelphia offense that finished 10th in flyball rate against right-handed pitching across the last two months of the regular season. It would be shocking to see Ranger Suarez pitch deep into this ballgame regardless of his effectiveness. If this ends up being a battle between the Phillies and the Braves bullpen in the latter innings, there is simply no reason for Philadelphia to be this significant of an underdog on the moneyline.
PICK: Phillies Moneyline (+175, Fanatics Sportsbook)