Playing NFL DFS on Rosters: Week 7
Let’s talk about “chalk.” No, not the sedimentary carbonate rock used to write on chalkboards. I’m talking about the DFS term. The term “chalk” is used in various forms of wagering. When the general public agrees on which side will win, that side is considered the chalk option. In DFS, the term chalk gets overused. If a player isn’t going to be greater than 50% owned you shouldn’t call that a chalk option because the majority of that contest doesn’t agree.
A lot of new players struggle with how to treat chalk DFS options. We are now six weeks into the NFL season. The DFS industry as a whole is very good at identifying the best plays on a weekly basis. For some reason, people think they need to avoid the best plays each week simply because they are good plays. Let’s do a quick math problem. In a 100-player contest I’m playing Cameron Meredith and he is 75% owned. Based only on that information how many people can have the same lineup as me? The answer is obviously 75. What if that same lineup has Jacquizz Rodgers at 5% owned? Now how many people can have the same lineup as me? The answer is 5.
Think about that for a minute. If you are playing on Rosters this week and you expect Cameron Meredith to be 75% owned, should you fade him? If we are talking about a 50/50 contest where half the field wins, you absolutely should not fade Meredith. If he has even a decent game 75% of the field has a massive advantage over you. In a tournament, you can’t expect Meredith to be 75% owned but he still might be over 50%. If you have identified Meredith as a strong play, you shouldn’t automatically avoid him just because “he’s too obvious.” Instead you need to determine if a similar-priced play has the same upside.
If you’ve identified a play that checks off every box and is way underpriced you play that person every single time. You can still win with a 95% owned player if the rest of your lineup is strong. Again, it doesn’t matter how many players you have over 50% owned. The number of people who can possibly have the same lineup as you is always equal to the ownership of your lowest-owned player.
The way I handle chalk options is probably different than others. Before I read or listen to anyone else in the industry I try to identify the best plays on my own. Then I’ll listen to a few podcasts or read a few articles and see if I missed anyone obvious. If an option I like keeps getting mentioned, I know that others saw what I saw. If an option I missed is being mentioned a lot, I try to figure out why I missed that play. Am I right or is the field right? With that in mind, let’s run through some chalk options and see if we can make that case to use that player this week.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan ($14,600) – Quarterback is the position I worry the least about what everyone else is doing. The ownership is always spread out since you only get to play one QB. Also, unless your QB gets hurt, you know he’s getting 100% of his team’s offensive snaps. If you are looking to pay up at QB this week the two chalk options are Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. We’ll cover them both here.
The case for Ryan is simple. The Falcons/Chargers game has this week’s highest over/under. The Falcons are projected to win this game while scoring somewhere around 29 points. Ryan will face a Chargers defense that is without Jason Verett, Brandon Flowers and Jahleel Addae. Even in tough matchups the past two weeks (Denver and Seattle) Ryan has scored 14.98 and 23.6 Rosters points. If I’m not playing Matt Ryan this week, there are two reasons why: 1.) I end up liking Tom Brady better or 2.) I think that the Falcons have enough success against San Diego’s porous run defense to limit Ryan’s upside. Other than those two reasons, I don’t see anything else in this matchup that scares me off Ryan.
Tom Brady ($15,500) – There are enough value options this week that you don’t need to save money at QB. Instead, you may simply want to pivot off Matt Ryan for similarly-priced Tom Brady. In his two games since returning from suspension, Brady has attempted 35 and 40 passes. He draws a matchup with the Steelers this week who have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. It is entirely reasonable to expect 300 yards and a couple touchdowns for Brady this week. That’s certainly enough for us even at $15,500.
Running Back
DeMarco Murray ($14,800) – Remember last week when LeSean McCoy was a chalk play? Hopefully you didn’t do enough research to realize McCoy made sense but then go a different direction because he was too obvious. DeMarco Murray is in a similarly-obvious spot this week. If you watched Sunday Night football last week, you saw Lamar Miller absolutely destroy this Colts run defense. Murray trails only Ezekiel Elliott in touches the last four weeks. The Colts run defense is worst in the league using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Murray checks off every box this week. He has 18 or more touches in every game this season. I’m not fading the chalk here.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($8,700) – One of my favorite things to do on sites that don’t have late swap is to lock in guys on Thursday who are sure to see their ownership rise on Sunday. LeSean McCoy was really the only other RB I liked this week and he pulled his hamstring on Wednesday. That leaves me looking for a cheap RB2. The Buccaneers announced yesterday that Doug Martin will miss this week. In the Bucs’ last game against Carolina, Jacquizz Rodgers carried the ball 30 times. The 49ers allow the most rushing attempts in the league and the second most fantasy points to RB. I’m using Rodgers this week as my RB2 which will let me get more high-end WRs.
Wide Receiver
Cameron Meredith ($4,000) – If you are reading this article after Thursday lock I feel bad for you. You missed out on playing a guy that has 27 targets and has played 91% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks. If you play the THU-SUN contests this week you do not want to miss out on Cameron Meredith. At $4,000 he lets you have anyone you want at every other position. Even if he finishes with 4 catches for 50 yards, you aren’t going to be upset with 9 points at this price. Meredith will face a Packers defense that is missing Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. Meredith is an absolute must-play at this price.
Ty Montgomery ($5,800) – As you are probably aware, Eddie Lacy will miss the next few weeks. Due to Lacy’s absence the Packers traded for RB Knile Davis this week. Obviously, Davis hasn’t learned the offense yet and the Packers only other RB is Don Jackson. The Packers don’t trust Jackson at RB though and they have already announced that TY Montgomery will see the majority of RB snaps this week. In the same role last week, Montgomery saw 16 touches and scored 19.4 rosters points. If you play the Thursday contests, you can absolutely load your lineup if you use both Meredith and Montgomery.
Tight End
Jordan Reed ($10,700) – How much risk are you willing to take this week? Jordan Reed sat out last week with a concussion. He’s on track to return this week but hasn’t been officially cleared to play. If you play him in a Thursday contest you are taking on some risk here. In my opinion, it’s worth the risk though. The Lions are a dream matchup for any Tight End and Reed isn’t just any TE. They have allowed seven TDs in just six games this season. Assuming Reed plays this week, he’s a very strong play on Rosters because of the value at other positions. If you don’t want the risk (and don’t want Walker below) you can always pay just a little bit more to get Rob Gronkowski.
Delanie Walker ($6,900) – If you don’t want to take a chance on Reed you can save a few thousand and just drop down to Delanie Walker. On the season the Browns have allowed 47 catches, 562 yards and 6 TDs to Tight Ends. That averages to 7.83 catches, 93.67 yards, and 1 TD per game. Plenty of people were burned by Walker last week when he saw just two targets but I’m willing to go back to him again this week. The only people that can possibly stop Walker from having a good game this week are the Titans’ play callers. I’m trusting that last week’s two target effort was an anomaly and expecting Walker to 8-10 targets this week.
Defense, Kickers, and Closing Thoughts
As I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m not the guy to go to for Defense and Kicker picks. Here are at RotoGrinders we have people who specialize in that. Stewburtx8 did a great job in his Defense and Special Teams article. I’m interested in Denver, New England and the Ravens for the same reasons mentioned in that article.
As far as kicker goes, if you are using my picks above you have plenty of salary left at kicker. Sportsgrinder covered six options in his Kicking Study. I think you can play any of those guys and any other kicker that isn’t kicking in a bad weather game.
Before we get out of here, I need to mention that Rosters has an incredibly generous offer for new depositors. If you use the RotoGrinders Link (Promo Code: Grinders) and make a $10 deposit Rosters will give you an extra $40. If you are struggling to win on the bigger sites, I’d recommend giving Rosters a try. With the picks I’ve mentioned above you’ll easily be able to field a competitive lineup. Also, you’ll be able to turn $10 into $50 before you’ve even played a single contest. You really can’t beat that!