Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles - Game 1 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Orioles Odds
| Rangers Odds | +120 |
| Orioles Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sat, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 1:08 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Saturday, the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles will begin their AL Division Series matchup at Camden Yards. Texas made quick work of the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round, winning two games on the road at Tropicana Field. The 101-win Orioles were the only team in the American League to win more games than Tampa Bay during the regular season. First pitch for Game 1 between these two clubs is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Orioles as -140 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
Dunning likely to get the nod for Texas
According to Evan Grant, Jordan Montgomery threw a bullpen session on Friday afternoon at Camden Yards, which all but guarantees that it will be someone other than him on the bump Saturday. The most likely scenario that we will see is Dane Dunning to begin the game, followed by either Martin Perez or Andrew Heaney – perhaps both. Dunning is not an ideal candidate for a piggyback approach given his lack of true time-through-the-order (TTO) splits. In 2023, Dunning had a 4.24 FIP and a 1.30 WHIP his first TTO, compared to a 3.51 FIP and a 1.26 WHIP his second TTO. If nothing else, a hybrid approach could leave the Orioles with an interesting decision on whether or not to stack left-handed hitters against Dunning to begin the contest. Dunning struggled to a 5.00 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, and allowed a .270 batting average across the platoon in 2023, but was much better against right-handed batters.
Rangers’ offense likely to put pressure on Baltimore in ALDS
Including the final weekend of the regular season, the Texas offense entered Game 2 of the Wild Card round in a 3-for-23 (.130 batting average) slump with runners-in-scoring-position. The Rangers busted out of that drought in a big way on Wednesday afternoon, going 4-for-13 (.308 batting average) and scoring seven runs in a winning effort. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the Texas offense in recent weeks is their relentlessness. Even when the Rangers are not plating an abundance of runs, they are putting a lot of stress on opposing pitchers and defenses by consistently getting men into scoring position. Over the course of an entire series, the Rangers’ impressive depth one-through-nine in the batting order is, at minimum, going to make them a tough team to beat.
Will the Texas arm barn hold up over an entire series?
Against Tampa Bay, Texas’ biggest vulnerability was their lack of reliable arms in the late innings. Fortunately for the Rangers, Jordan Montgomery delivered seven scoreless frames in Game 1 and Nathan Eovaldi allowed only one earned run across 6.2 innings in Game 2. The length they obtained from their starters completely eliminated the bridge needed to get to their few high-leverage, reliable arms in the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning. The larger question for this relief unit is how they will fare over the course of, potentially, five games – knowing that Aroldis Chapman is rarely used on back-to-back days and Jose Leclerc cannot pitch every day. Other than Chapman and Leclerc, no other permanent member of the bullpen had a FIP below 4.05 from July 1 to the end of the regular season. Manager Bruce Bochy is likely to have a tremendous impact in this series with how he chooses to deploy his middle relievers.
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Bradish gets the ball in Game 1
Kyle Bradish struggled mightily as a rookie in 2022, but was one of the most-improved pitchers in baseball this past summer as a sophomore. Bradish ended the regular season with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.79 xERA. His 3.24 FIP was 22% better than the league average hurler. In 2023, Bradish increased his slider usage and nearly completely scrapped his 4-seam fastball in favor of a much more effective sinker against right-handed batters. Against lefties, it was less of the fastball and more of everything else – his curveball, slider, and changeup. The change in pitch mix turned him from a backend starter to a potential ace of a staff.
If there is any concern for Bradish in the series opener, it is his inability to generate much weak contact. This season, he ranked in only the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 27th percentile in hard-hit rate. Facing an impressive Texas lineup, the floor for Bradish is lower than is desirable.
What to expect from the Orioles offense
Baltimore’s offense scuffled down the stretch in the regular season, finishing September ranked 19th in OPS, 20th in ISO, 24th in walk percentage, and 23rd in strikeout rate. In Game 1, they could benefit early from a left-handed stacked lineup against Dane Dunning, who struggles across the platoon. However, that could leave their bench thin in the late innings if Dunning is sent to the showers early in favor of Andrew Heaney or Martin Perez – both of whom are left-handed.
Baltimore bullpen missing their anchor
Heading into October, Baltimore is without Felix Bautista, who had 33 saves prior to being shut down due to injury on August 25. However, from August 26 to the end of the regular season, the Orioles relief unit still performed at a high level – ranking 4th in FIP, 8th in WHIP, 25th in strikeout rate, and 4th in walk percentage. During that stretch, DL Hall, Shintaro Fujinami, Cionel Perez, Danny Coulombe, Jacob Webb, and Yennier Cano each tossed at least 10 innings of relief for Baltimore while posting a 3.78 FIP or better. Despite the lack of recognizable names, this is a deep unit that is more than capable of holding their own during these playoffs. The biggest concern for this group against Texas is a lack of strikeouts, which can lead to high-variance outcomes if men are on base.
Rangers vs. Orioles – Picks & Predictions
Until we know for certain what the Texas pitching plan is for tomorrow’s series opener, it is best to proceed cautiously from a betting perspective. Nonetheless, we know that both of these teams are strong defensively and both bullpens will be extremely rested heading into Game 1. It is likely that both starting pitchers are on an extremely short leash in this one, which makes life more difficult on hitters, who will not have the benefit of seeing the same pitcher for multiple plate appearances. Camden Yards played as a relatively pitcher-friendly park in 2023 – the under is likely a good place to start if taking early action here.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-130, Fanatics Sportsbook)