Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 1
Welcome to Raybon’s Rollout, where I’ll highlight the stacks and players I’m rolling out in DFS each week.
Everyone knows about QB-WR stacks, and almost every GPP lineup is built around one. But you have to be somewhat contrarian to take down a GPP. Each week, I will be highlighting unconventional stacks to use in GPPs, based on an in-depth offseason study I did on stacking. I essentially found that while QB + WR1 is the stack with the highest hit rate, an RB1 tends to be the second most viable option to pair with a QB. I also found a strong correlation between opposing passing games, and between D/ST and kicker. Here are the specifics:
QB + RB1 + WR1: From 2013-15, my research has shown that the most likely three-man stack to combine for 75 FanDuel points is QB + RB1 + WR1 (2.6% of the time). The same is true on DraftKings in terms of hitting 75 or more points (7.8% of the time). The aforementioned trio is also the most likely to combine for 105 or more DraftKings points (0.4% of the time). When a QB scores 25 or more, WR1 + RB1 is the most likely pairing in a three-man stack to combine for 50 or more on DraftKings (20.9% of the time), and the second most likely on FanDuel (6.2% of the time, behind WR1-WR2 at 8.1%).
QB + RB1: When a QB scores 25 or more, the RB1 is the second most likely player to also hit 25, at a rate of 7.7%. On DraftKings, RB1 is the fourth most likely to do so, but the hit rate (13.1%) is right there with WR2 (14.9%) and TE1 (13.8%).
Opposing passing game stacks, i.e. QB + WR1 + Opp.WR1: When a QB scores 25 or more on either site, the opposing WR1 and the opposing QB are both more likely to score 25 than any member of the QB’s own team except his WR1.
D/ST + Kicker: The correlation coefficient for D/ST-K on FanDuel is .29, which is only a few points below QB-WR2 and QB-TE1, and higher than QB-WR3.
RB1 + D/ST: The correlation coefficient for RB1+D/ST is mild on both sites (.12 on FanDuel, .11 on DraftKings), but can still be viable in the right situation.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Brock Osweiler + RB Lamar Miller + WR DeAndre Hopkins
The Texans offense is in a good spot against a Bears defense that ranked 28th in defensive DVOA last season. Houston is a six-point home favorite with a healthy implied point total of 25, nearly four points higher than the 21.2 points per game the team averaged in 2015. Miller benefits from being a large home favorite, and from the fact head coach Bill O’Brien has fed a back 20 or more touches in 59% of his games as Houston’s head coach. Free agent linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan should improve the Bears run defense, but after finishing dead last in run defense DVOA, the Bears could substantially improve in that area and still be below average. Hopkins has a plus-matchup against cornerback Kyle Fuller: Hopkins ranked fourth in PFF’s WR grades in 2015, while Fuller ranked 39th in their CB grades. Hopkins also averages 0.69 TDs at home over the past two seasons, compared to 0.38 on the road. In the Bears regular season dress rehearsal, Alex Smith was able to attempt 30 passes in the first half because the Bears struggled to stay on the field on offense. Houston’s defense is good enough to force the Bears into a similar fate. We should see a high-volume game from the Osweiler-Miller-Hopkins trio. The stack is viable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, although I like it on FanDuel more because Hopkins is cheaper there despite FanDuel having a larger salary cap.
QB Russell Wilson + RB Christine Michael
On both FanDuel and DraftKings, QB-RB1 stacks had the second highest hit rate after QB-WR1. QBs tend to have the biggest games at home, as favorites, with an implied team total of 24, and when they actually win. The Seahawks check the first three boxes, and are very likely to check the fourth as well once all is said and done. But with the Seahawks owning the highest team total on the slate (it’s currently over 27), they could conceivably score 4-6 TDs. Wilson is a rushing QB, so many DFS players like to go naked Russ in GPPs. But why go Naked Russ (Ciara just started doing that, after all) when you could stack Russ with his RB and potentially get exposure to 100% of Seattle’s offensive TDs? Thomas Rawls is off the injury report, which will likely drive down Michael’s ownership, but Pete Carroll said Rawls will be limited this week, and it’s hard to envision them letting Rawls grind away in the second half if the team has a lead. Meanwhile, Michael has been a monster all August, and should be able to take advantage of the Dolphins’ wide nine scheme, which leaves gaps on the defensive line that defenders likely won’t be able to adequately plug since they’ll also have to worry about Wilson’s rushing ability. At $4,800 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DraftKings, Michael is worth the risk, and balances out Wilson’s expensive price tag in the stack.
QB Drew Brees + WR Brandin Cooks + WR Amari Cooper
Quarterbacks are highly correlated with opposing quarterbacks. Derek Carr is going to be the chalk, so why not leverage the correlation and go with Brees? But not just any Brees…Home Brees. Home Brees is a totally different monster than Road Brees. Over the last three seasons, Home Brees has averaged 341 passing yards and 2.75 passing TDs per game. Road Brees, on the other hand, has averaged “just” 295 yards and 1.65 TDs. Cooks’ ownership will likely be kept low by the fact he’s going against Sean Smith, PFF’s No. 13 cornerback in 2015. But Home Cooks is nothing to mess with, either. In his career, Home Cooks has averaged a 5.9-77-0.62 receiving line, compared to Road Cooks, whose line is just 4.6-53-0.31. Cooks doesn’t need to win every route against Smith, he just needs to be able to run by him once or twice — you know that’s all Home Brees needs to make this work. There’s also the fact that Cooks is 190 pounds soaking wet and runs a 4.33 40-yard dash, while Smith is 214 pounds and runs a 4.5 40. And then there’s Cooper, whose matchup is also perceived as difficult going against CFL transplant Delvin Breaux. Breaux is a boom-or-bust corner — he makes a lot of big plays, but also gets beat for big plays, and gave up a league-leading eight TDs last season. This game has a total above 50 with New Orleans installed as a one-point favorite, so Vegas obviously isn’t concerned with the matchup. And if Carr goes off, you can bet Home Brees will too, and this stack gives you leverage on all of the Carr lineups and Carr-Cooper lineups. This stack also gives you exposure to two WRs in the second-tier of pricing in a week when a ton of lineups will likely deploy 2-3 stud WRs since there is so much value to be had at QB, RB, and TE on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
K Steven Hauschka + D/ST Seattle Seahawks
Both of Hauschka and the Seahawks are chalk plays (or should be, at least). Despite the narrative that kicker scoring is unpredictable, it is actually the most consistent position outside of QB. Kicker scoring is strongly correlated with Vegas implied totals, and Seattle’s is over 27. D/ST scoring has a strong positive correlation with the point spread and a strong negative correlation with the opponent’s implied total. The Seahawks are double-digit favorites and the Dolphins have a team total under 17. However, I’m not sure everyone is privy to the fact that kicker and defense have a .29 correlation with each other, which, as I mentioned earlier, is only a few points below QB-WR2 and QB-TE1, and higher than QB-WR3. In other words, kicker and defense is correlated at the level of QB and receiver. Playing Hauschka and the Seahawks D/ST separately would be chalky, as both will likely have high ownership, but playing them together gives you more leverage. In Dolphins head coach Adam Gase’s last three meetings with Seattle as a head coach or offensive coordinator, his teams have averaged nine points and two turnovers per game. Two of those games came with Peyton Manning under center, and the other with Jimmy Clausen. Two Peyton Mannings and one Jimmy Clausen averages out to about the same as one Ryan Tannehill, no?
RB David Johnson + D/ST Arizona Cardinals
Look, I like the Spencer Ware-Chiefs D/ST stack as much as the next cool cat, but if you frequent this site, you were probably all over that stack already. Everyone else will be, too. I’m a proponent of saving cash at RB, but I make exceptions for guys who can literally be the highest scoring player in a week, especially when said player is going to be low owned. If you’re going to go cheap elsewhere, why not deploy Johnson instead of another stud WR? Remember that time when Johnson became the starter and averaged 21.7 touches for 123.4 yards and 0.85 TDs over a seven game stretch (including playoffs)? Well, those were his most recent seven games. Jimmy Garoppolo struggles against pressure, and Arizona is one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the league. With a team total currently under 21, this is not Tom Brady’s Patriots, and the Cardinals defense should be able to keep the Pats off the field and ensure positive game script for Johnson. The stack has a bit more value on DraftKings, where Johnson is priced third and the Cardinals sixth at their respective position, than on FanDuel, where Johnson and the Cards are both priced second at their respective position.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Allen Robinson vs. Dom Capers’ Blitzing
Capers loves to send an extra blitzer, particularly a defensive back, which can create single coverage downfield. The Packers had the third-highest rate of five-man blitzes and the sixth-highest rate of DB blitzes in 2015, per Football Outsiders. Under Capers, the Packers have seen an above-average percentage of deep balls (defined as more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage) thrown on them for five years in a row. The Jaguars were third in deep attempt percentage (24.1%) in 2015, and Allen Robinson led the NFL with 67 deep targets. Robinson may go overlooked with the other stud WRs being easy to fit in lineups, but being an underdog in a relatively high scoring game is exactly the kind of game Robinson and the Jaguars offense thrive in from a fantasy perspective. It’s also worth noting Robinson posted 100 yards and/or a TD in each of his last 12 regular season games.
Injury Situations to Exploit
This offseason, I completed research that quantified the effects of injuries on fantasy production. Many people don’t pay enough attention to the injury report, but since 2008, WRs have seen a 10% drop in production when playing in a game after being on the injury report that week. (RB, WR, and TE all saw a 9-10% dip, on average.)
In Week 1, keep a close eye on these injuries:
Julio Jones, ankle
Jones is going to be one of the highest owned plays of the week, but since 2008, ankle injuries have caused roughly a 12 percent dip in production. If Jones is still on the injury report Sunday, there’s leverage to be had in fading him in GPPs.
Golden Tate, ankle
Matthew Stafford will likely be a popular play, and while Marvin Jones will be more popular, I’m sure there are many planning to use Tate as well. But Tate also popped up as questionable with an ankle, and could suffer a dip in production that DFS players may fail to account for.