Raybon's Rollout: Week 9
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Cam Newton + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Devin Funchess
The Kelvin Benjamin trade probably has us paying more attention than we should to an offense that has scored 20 points combined over its past two games, so rather than sprinkle in McCaffrey and Funchess in a bunch of different lineups — my GPP leverage scores indicate that both McCaffrey and Funchess are independently two of the lowest-leverage plays on the slate when taking projected ownership into account—I’d rather leverage the underrated QB-RB-WR1 correlation against a Falcons defense ranked 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to offenses collectively.
There’s more touchdown equity than meets the eye with the pairing of McCaffrey and Funchess, as McCaffrey owns a 26% red zone target share while Funchess owns a 22% share—the same as Benjamin’s while he was here. Without Benjamin in the fold, it sets up to essentially be a two-man show in scoring position when Cam takes to the air. Even with Benjamin, McCaffrey (24%) and Funchess (22%) ranked 1-2 on the team in overall target share.
I’m hoping the reverse line move against the Panthers (they’re 1-point underdogs as of this writing after opening as 1-point favorites) dissuades people from going with an all-out team stack like this, and it just might after Cam failed to post good numbers against an exploitable Bucs defense last week. It’s also worth noting that Panthers-Falcons was the only game chosen by multiple experts in the DraftKings Expert Survey (available to RotoGrinders Premium users) as the game that has sneaky shootout potential, an idea which I can certainly buy into. I’m also buying into the idea of exchanging the lumbering Benjamin’s snaps for a field-stretcher like Curtis Samuel (4.31 forty) will open things up for the other receivers and make life easier for Cam.
QB Drew Brees + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Michael Thomas
One of the ripple effects of Deshaun Watson going down was it essentially made the Saints offense more valuable, as it now has the highest implied total on the slate (29 points as of this writing). Only the Colts have allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to collective offenses than the Buccaneers, so it’s a good time to stack the quarterback going against ir with his top two pass-catchers by target share in Thomas (25%) and Kamara (17%)—especially since Kamara has also been good for 9.0 carries per game since Adrian Peterson was traded (which could be increasing if you believe the Ingram fumble narrative). Cornerback Brent Grimes (shoulder) looks like he is going to miss another game, but Thomas would be in a great spot either way, as his 6-foot-3, 212-pound frame will pose problems for a Tampa Bay defense whose biggest cornerback, 6-foot, 204-pound Vernon Hargreaves, has also been its biggest coverage liability.
This is another group of players I would rather leverage correlations with by playing them together instead of sprinkling each player in across my tournament portfolio, as all three players have high ownership projections that pull down their GPP leverage scores.
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Kareem Hunt: 63% on FanDuel, 56% on DraftKings
(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)
Pour one out for Watson, who was set to be the first non-running back to appear in this space. Instead we’re left with Hunt, who would likely cost another $500–700 on DraftKings and FanDuel if not for some unlucky touchdown variance that has left him scoreless since Week 3. Don’t let that negative variance cloud the fact that Hunt has been an utter problem for opposing defenses all season long, leading the league in yards created (327), evaded tackles (74), and breakaway runs (10), per PlayerProfiler.com.
Hunt, who averages 5.2 yards per carry and 11.0 yards per reception, has a plus-matchup in both the running and receiving game against a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and 31st in defensive success rate on targets to running backs (60%; the league average is 44%, per SharpFootballStats.com).
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Ben McAdoo’s Tendency to Suspend His Best Cornerbacks
Maybe the old, unkempt-haired version of Ben McAdoo let his cornerbacks get away with whatever they wanted, but the new, slick-back-haired version of McAdoo … he’s not taking nothing from nobody. First it was Dominique Rodgers Cromartie earning a one-week suspension in Week 6 for lashing out at Slick Back, and now Janoris Jenkins will ride the pine “indefinitely” after an unexcused absence from practice.
Without the threat of Jenkins’ shadow coverage, Sammy Watkins should finally be able to get loose for the first time since his six-catch, 106-yard, two-touchdown explosion in Week 3 at San Francisco. Watkins’ to-date production (2.6 catches, 37.7 yards, and 0.29 touchdowns per game) has been lagging way behind his career averages, but these things have a way of regressing to the mean, especially with Sean McVay as the head coach (see: Gurley, Todd and Goff, Jared). With defensive end Olivier Vernon (ankle) looking unlikely to play as well, a defense already ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA will be without its best pass rusher in addition to its top cornerback.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Deshaun Watson’s Torn ACL
Warren Buffett was once quoted as saying “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” and I don’t know about you, but if I’m going to take advice from anybody it’s going to be the guy that earns the equivalent of 37 first-place finishes in the Milly Maker every single day. Before Watson tore his ACL Wednesday afternoon, we were all greedy, looking for ways to jam him in against a Colts defense ranked dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Stay greedy, my friends.
The Colts defense is still bad, the Texans’ implied team total (26.5 as of this writing) is still tied for the second-highest on the slate even after the line was revised, and DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are still two of the best wide receivers in the game. In fact, for all the talk about how impressive Watson is, Hopkins and Fuller rank third and 18th, respectively, among 111 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades, while Watson’s passing grade ranks just 28th among 34 qualifiers (his rushing grade ranks first). That’s not to slight Watson, who was having one of the most impressive starts to a career we’ve ever seen, but what those grades tell me is that the skill of Hopkins and Fuller played a large role in Watson’s success through the air.
Now going up against one of the worst secondaries in the league, Hopkins and Fuller aren’t going to magically stop getting open. We have to be careful not to conflate Savage with Brock Osweiler — the truth is, Savage is mostly an unknown. He got benched in Week 1 against Jacksonville after taking an egregious seven sacks on 20 dropbacks against the Jaguars, but we now know that’s pretty much par for the course for the Jaguars—they rank first in the league in both sacks (33) and adjusted sack rate (11.1%) while the Colts don’t even have half as many sacks (16) and rank 23rd in adjusted sack rate (5.8%). We could all probably agree that DeShone Kizer has been the worst quarterback in the league this season, and he won someone a million dollars in Week 3 going against the Colts defense. What’s that you say? Brian Hoyer was actually the worst quarterback in the league this season? He won someone a million dollars in Week 5 going against the Colts defense. (You might have heard of the guy who won it in Week 5.)