Raybon's Rollout: Wild Card Round
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
Although the Wild Card slate is a bit messy at QB, with two backups and one QB that got recently benched all starting, there are actually a lot of playable options at the other positions. Due to the limited slate, correlated stacks become even more important because a few teams may dominate from a fantasy standpoint over all the rest. Below I’ll highlight some core stacks to build around and a couple of situations to exploit that may be overlooked by the masses.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Ben Roethlisberger + RB Le’Veon Bell + WR Antonio Brown
Bell led all RBs in fantasy PPG, Brown led all WRs in fantasy PPG, and Big Ben has averaged 340 yards and 2.9 TDs passing at home since 2014. The Dolphins defense, meanwhile, is ranked 30th in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses. Over its last five games, Miami has allowed three QBs to throw for 3+ TDs while letting RBs average 5.24 yards per carry. It’s no surprise the Steelers have the highest implied total of the slate (28). I want these three in as many lineups as possible.
QB Russell Wilson + WR Doug Baldwin + WR Anquan Boldin
We know the Seahawks can’t run the ball (47.0 yards per game and 2.61 yards per carry by RBs over their last three games). We also know the Lions cannot defend the pass (72.7% completion rate allowed, the highest in NFL history). Therefore, this game sets up for the Seahawks to throw. Perhaps because he can’t travel with his miraculous nanobubble water, Wilson has been far better at home this season, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and 1.62:0.38 TD-INT ratio, compared to 7.3 yards per attempt and a 1:1 TD-INT ratio on the road. Baldwin is Wilson’s primary target, with 9.2 targets per game over the last six weeks ranking 10th in the league during that span. Because Baldwin runs the majority of his routes from the slot, he will mostly avoid Lions’ top corner Darius Slay. Oh, and the Lions’ top two slot corners (Quandre Diggs, Asa Jackson) are both on injured reserve.
Opposing passing games are correlated, and the Lions will throw when they have to — Matthew Stafford is averaging 39 attempts per game as an underdog, compared to 34.9 as a favorite. Boldin has the best matchup (and price tag) among Lions WRs against Jeremy Lane, PFF’s 85th-ranked corner out of 120 qualifiers. Boldin quietly finished the season third the league in red zone targets (22) and tied for ninth in targets inside the 10-yard line (9).
RB Latavius Murray + D/ST Raiders
With an over/under hovering around 37, a close spread, and two bottom-tier starting QBs, the Raiders-Texans game should feature a lot of fantasy production from each team’s RBs and defense rather than from the passing game. I suspect more users will go with Texans D/ST-Lamar Miller than Murray-Raiders, but the correlation between the Texans and Miller is only 0.01, compared to 0.20 for Murray and the Raiders, per FantasyLabs. The Raiders have arguably the best offensive line in the league besides the Cowboys, and it’s time to be greedy with Murray while others are fearful due to his five-carry game last week. Head coach Jack Del Rio flat out came out and said “Latavius ends up with five carries. How does that happen? It wasn’t a great job of executing by the Oakland Raiders.” The Raiders are likely to feature their backfield with rookie Connor Cook making his first career start, and Murray has a chance to eat against a Texans defense ranked 25th in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Only five players in the league scored more TDs than Murray (12) this season.
The case for the Raiders defense beyond the correlation play with Murray is simple: Brock Osweiler. Osweiler had the fifth-highest interception rate (3.1%) and the fourth-lowest completion rate (59.0%) among qualified QBs, which caused the Texans to average just 17.0 points per game, fourth-fewest in the league.
K Nick Novak + D/ST Houston Texans
I mentioned above that Texans-Raiders sets up to have a lot of defensive fantasy production and that Lamar Miller and the Texans defense have not been correlated this season. On the other hand, the Texans defense has been correlated with is Nick Novak (0.46), per FantasyLabs. Novak led all kickers on the Wild Card slate in FanDuel PPG during the regular season (9.4) and checks the box of being a home favorite. The Texans defense was fifth in the league in points per game allowed at home (16.6) and will benefit from the inevitable mistakes rookie third-string QB Connor Cook is bound to make in his first NFL start.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Dolphins’ Tendency to Feed Jarvis Landry in Negative Game Script
When the Dolphins have been favorites this season, Jarvis Landry averages a modest 6.2 targets per game. But when they’re underdogs? That figure spikes all the way up to 9.4. Since Matt Moore has taken over at QB, Landry is averaging a healthy 27% target market share, which is higher than the full-season market share of any other WR on the slate except Odell Beckham. Despite his team being a 10-point underdog, Landry is in a good spot this week in the game with the highest over/under on the slate.
Injury Situation to Exploit
The Packers’ Injury-Ravaged Cornerbacks
The Packers have already put corners Sam Shields, Demetri Goodson, and Makinton Dorleant on IR this season. Starter Damarious Randall is questionable for this week with a knee injury, while another starter, Quinten Rollins, is doubtful after leaving last week’s game on a stretcher with a concussion. The Packers ended last week’s game playing two safeties, Micah Hyde and Morgan Burnett, at corner. This week, the team activated undrafted corner Herb Waters, who played WR in the preseason and in college, from the practice squad. Eli Manning has mostly had a horrible season, but he and all of the Giants WRs are squarely in play — not just Odell Beckham. The Packers are ranked 29th and 31st in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and WRs, respectively.