Risers and Fallers: Volume 18
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers.
Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
RISING… BUT COULD QUICKLY BECOME OVERPRICED
Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
It’s getting to be that time of year when we start seeing top prospects getting called up by teams out of contention, and no prospect has made a bigger impact this year than Sanchez. With the Yankees throwing in the towel, trading away Carlos Beltran and releasing Alex Rodriguez, they’ve decided to give some young guys a chance to impress. Sanchez has been considered one of the top catching prospects in baseball for a couple years, although he’s far exceeded any expectation thus far. Sanchez has 6 home runs and a .495 wOBA in just 62 plate appearances, which is obviously unsustainable. In Triple-A this year, he had just 10 homers and a .361 wOBA in 313 plate appearances.
On the scouting side, Sanchez is considered to have plus-plus raw power, but it hasn’t translated into monster in-game power in the minors. That pretty-good-but-not-great total from Triple-A this year is pretty indicative of his entire minor league career, which leaves us asking ourselves what we’re seeing: some good luck, or a player making good on his underlying skills. Sanchez is certainly hitting the ball hard (41% hard contact rate) and far (five of his six HRs have gone over 400 feet, with his furthest at 437 to dead center), and it’s worth noting that he played in a park at Triple-A the past couple years that depresses home runs and played in the more pitcher-friendly International League.
So what do we expect of Sanchez going forward? THE BAT looks at him as an above-average hitter and a well above-average hitting catcher, even without buying into his crazy start in the majors. And now that he’s hitting third in the Yankees order, his upside has skyrocketed. When he was in the $2,500 range on DraftKings he was constantly in play, but the great performance and the very high ownership rates he’s seen have driven that price up to $4,400 on Sunday in Angel Stadium. This price is simply too high for Sanchez. (Although a $2,700 tag on FanDuel is still quite reasonable.) I’d wait for it to drop back down into the $3,500 range and for the Bombers to return to Yankee Stadium. Chasing hot streaks is never a sound decision, but there is a lot to like about Sanchez if you can get him at a value. Hopefully he’ll cool off in Seattle to start this week before the Yankees welcome the Orioles to town next weekend.
JUST CALLED UP… AND UNDERPRICED
Yulieski Gurriel, 3B, Houston Astros
If you’re looking for the next Gary Sanchez, you won’t find him at catcher, but I think there’s a good chance we see the same sharp rise in price for Gurriel over the next couple weeks. Gurriel is not a prospect in the traditional sense; he’s 32 years old and came over from Cuba this year.
Since so few Cubans have made the transition to the majors, it can be difficult to project what they’ll do in Major League Baseball. For every Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Abreu, there is a Hector Olivera and Rusney Castillo. However, scouts rave about Gurriel’s ability. He doesn’t offer immense power, but he does have a little. What he does best is generate great bat speed with good plate coverage, and he has solid plate discipline. He won’t draw a lot of walks, but he won’t strike out much either. Playing in his final season in the Cuban National Series, he struck out just three times in 212 plate appearances. Yes, three times. Total.
Taking his Cuban stats (and his year in Japan) into account, THE BAT views Gurriel as a well above-average hitter right now. Plop him into a stacked Astros lineup and hit him sixth, as they did on Sunday in his debut, and you have the makings of an intriguing DFS play. More than that, he costs just $2,400 on DraftKings on Monday. FanDuel starts him off at $3,000, which is on the high side, but he could be an excellent DK punt for the next couple of weeks. The Astros go into Pittsburgh to start this week, which means Gurriel may not even have a spot to play, but then they’ll return home for two series against the Rays and A’s, who have some exploitable lefties. After that, the ‘Stros go to Texas and Cleveland, where Gurriel could really thrive.
Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
You may recognize Swanson’s name as the prize piece in the Shelby Miller deal this offseason. The one that was obviously a terrible move for Arizona even back then. That’s because Swanson is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. (Also because Miller was being ridiculously overrated by the D-Backs). That being said, I’m not as high on Swanson at present as I am about Sanchez or Gurriel. He plays above-average defense but doesn’t do any one thing especially well offensively. He has the ability to steal some bases despite not having exceptional speed, he has solid but not great plate discipline, and he has just modest power. Again, there’s no one thing to excite you, but the combination makes him only a slightly below-average hitter at present, which as a shortstop is perfectly fine.
Swanson hit eighth in his first three games, but the Braves moved him up to leadoff on Sunday, which is where he’d need to stay to be fantasy relevant; playing for the Braves and calling Turner Field home will do him no favors. Still, he was priced at just $2,400 on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Sunday, and a price tag like that would put him in play as a leadoff-hitting shortstop with solid skills, particularly on DraftKings. The Braves will play a four-game series in Arizona this week, which will lead to a few of the best matchups they’ll have the whole rest of the way.
CHEAP… BUT NOT A GOOD OPTION
Chad Pinder, SS, Oakland A’s
The A’s also called up a well-priced shortstop prospect this week, but the outlook on Pinder isn’t as rosy. The most likely long-term outcome for Pinder is as a utility-man, since he doesn’t quite have the glove for shortstop or the bat for second or third. For now he’s a shortstop, though, which help his DFS value, but his bat still leaves a lot to be desired. While he dominated Double-A last year with a .380 wOBA and won the MVP award, the Texas League is a very hitter-friendly environment, and he’s come down quite a bit in Triple-A despite playing in the Pacific Coast League, which is also very hitter-friendly (albeit in a bit of a pitchers’ park). Overall, he projects to be well below-average with plenty of strikeouts and no stand-out power or speed tool to compensate. If he happens to hit towards the top of the order he could be a punt in a good matchup, but as of now he just isn’t as a member of the A’s while playing half of his games in O.co.
BUMPILY RISING… AND UNDERPRICED
Joe Musgrove, SP, Houston Astros
Musgrove made his major league debut at the start of August and rattled off three excellent starts in a row, posting a 1.47 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, and 10.3 K/9 in 18.1 innings. This led to a huge ownership percentage in his own recent start in Baltimore, where he promptly got shelled. This is a classic case of recency bias. I was a big fan of Musgrove in a couple of his early starts, but the one against Toronto was simply a bad matchup. It’ll be interesting to see where his price and ownership lies in his next couple starts, because I’m likely to want to play him.
Musgrove doesn’t have dominating stuff or big minor league strikeout numbers, but what he does have is excellent control and a quality arsenal. His fastball sits at 92 with good spin, and his breaking ball is a plus pitch that can generate swings and misses. THE BAT views him as an above-average pitcher that will easily be usable in the right matchups.
This week, Musgrove goes into the National League and PNC Park on Tuesday. The following Monday, he’ll face the Oakland A’s at home in Minute Maid. Both starts, especially if Jason Castro is catching, will almost certainly put him into play. He’s priced at $7,600 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel on Monday, so something like that on Tuesday seems likely, which would make him very affordable as an SP2 or GPP play.
RISING… BUT ONLY USABLE IN PERFECT MATCHUPS
Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
Tyler Austin, OF, New York Yankees
As part of the Yankees’ youth movement, they recalled two outfielders in Judge and Austin. While they haven’t gotten off to quite the start Sanchez has, Judge has been great with a .404 wOBA in 29 PA. Still, both he and Austin remain relegated to the bottom of the order.
Judge is definitely the better prospect both now and long-term of the two. He’s your typical big raw power, big strikeout, big walk type of guy and is about an average offensive contributor at present. Think Jabari Blash from a statistical perspective, but with a bit less power and a bit less swing-and-miss. That can certainly have value in the right matchups, especially when calling Yankee Stadium home, but it also means that Judge is a high-variance guy. You’ll need the right combination of matchup and price to make him worthwhile, especially since he doesn’t come with the wide platoon split a lot of big-power guys do. This split generally makes a high upside power hitter appealing against opposite-handed pitchers and irrelevant against same-handed hitters. This is a good thing for DFS because there can be some very useful scenarios, but a guy who is closer to ‘meh’ against both sides is less useful.
Tyler Austin is a lesser prospect than Judge, and he’s dealt with some hand injuries in his minor league career. He has a shorter swing and projects for less power and fewer strikeouts than Judge, although he still does swing-and-miss plenty, making him a below-average hitter overall. Worse still, his platoon split is smaller than Judge’s and very small in general for a right-handed hitter, which means he’s less effective against left-handed pitchers than your typical below-average righty is.
Judge’s price tag is over $3,000 on FanDuel and maxed out at $3,900 on DraftKings this weekend, which is just too high for what he brings to the table. Austin is more affordable—in the $2,500 range on both sites—but less appealing. I don’t foresee myself recommending these guys as anything other than GPP plays for the foreseeable future.