RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 7

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner. Thoughts from other RotoGrinders Premium contributors are also included.

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Saints at Packers

Vegas-Implied Total: Saints 26.5, Packers 21.0

KEY MATCHUPS:

Packers Run D – 18th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 4th DVOA / 8th Yards per carry

Packers Pass D – 19th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 8th DVOA / 14th Yards per pass attempt

Saints Run D – 24th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 8th DVOA / 22nd Yards per carry

Saints Pass D – 11th DVOA / 28th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 17th DVOA / 21st Yards per pass attempt

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One of the most interesting values this week comes at the quarterback position, where Brett Hundley is taking over for Aaron Rodgers on the Packers.

Let’s start with Hundley:

He’s a mobile quarterback with a good arm. He averaged nearly a rushing touchdown per game in college, and he has enough speed to break a big play on the ground if the field opens up. He’s also big enough to withstand a beating…which is good, because he took 125 sacks through three years of college. This last Sunday, Hundley continued to show slow progression through his reads and an inability to read coverages (his interception to Harrison Smith came against Cover 3, but Hundley seemed to think it was Man) – problems that plagued him in college. And Dennis Allen is creative enough to disguise coverages and create issues for Hundley. Between Cameron Jordan bringing the heat from the edge and the Saints’ potential to take advantage of Hundley’s weaknesses as a passer, this is actually a strong week to consider rostering the Saints’ defense.

On the other hand, Mike McCarthy is not going to hang Hundley out to dry this week. We should expect the Packers to install a creative game plan that is different from what the Saints have seen or would be able to anticipate, likely with plenty of movement, misdirection, and option-style run plays. Although Hundley showed poor accuracy in college on the run, I also expect McCarthy to move the pocket for Hundley a decent amount, in order to give him fewer reads (to less-clogged areas of the field), with more opportunities to take off. Between Hundley’s rushing upside, his weapons, the creative offensive mind on the sideline, and his price tag, I love him in tourneys this week. I’m undecided on him in cash games, but the rushing upside should raise his floor high enough that he is viable there as well.

The best way to attack the Saints right now remains on the ground, as Ken Crawley and Marshon Lattimore are playing excellent defense on the perimeter, while teams continue to have their way with the Saints on the ground (while also having their way with running backs through the air; the Saints have faced the fifth most targets, and allowed the sixth most catches, to running backs).

It’s too early to say that Aaron jones cannot catch the football, but in his solo start in Week 5, the Packers elected to throw to him only one time after using the running back position heavily through the air – with Ty Montgomery – the first four weeks. Then last week, Jones caught only one of four targets. Jones saw 43 snaps last week while Ty Montgomery saw only 20, so while that may have just been because the Packers were easing Montgomery back in, it’s reasonable to assume that this will be the workload split moving forward. Jones maintains upside in tourneys in this matchup, though his floor is something like 13 carries for 40 yards, so be careful in cash games. Montgomery also has long-shot tourney appeal, as there is a chance he becomes the primary back if the Packers fall behind and have to catch up through the air.

No individual Packers wide receiver jumps out, with Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson so heavily reliant on touchdowns for their fantasy production this year (and each dealing with a tough matchup on the outside), while Randall Cobb has seen his usage chipped away each week – while showing nothing in the way of big-play upside. If going here, Adams is the best bang-for-your-buck option, though I also do not mind the idea of rolling Hundley naked.

The Saints give us Drew Brees on the road, on a team that has ranked in the bottom eight in passing play percentage across their last three games. While it should be noted that the Saints were playing with a big lead for much of those games, it should also be noted that the Saints are expected to be playing with a lead in this one as well. Brees has gone three straight games without topping 300 yards – a rarity for him; but even in a great matchup, it won’t surprise me if Brees falls short of 300 yards once again. I like him in tourneys for the upside against a thoroughly attackable Green Bay pass defense, but there are too many avenues by which Brees could have a low-volume, disappointing game, as the Packers will look to slow down the game on their side, while the Saints will be happy to turn to the run if they are playing with a lead. Brees is off the table for me in cash games.

On the ground, Mark Ingram jumps off the page again this week after seeing 25 carries and five targets last week. Ingram has exactly five targets in three of five games this year (seeing eight and four targets in the remaining two games), which gives him a great floor. And even if usage dips a bit this week, his absolute floor is around 15 carries (with goal line work), giving him plenty of opportunity for another big game. I like him even at his elevated price.

Alvin Kamara also soaked up 10 carries last week, while seeing only three targets (his lowest target count of the season). With Adrian Peterson gone and this offense loving to use multiple backs, Kamara’s usage is locked in – with at least five targets and five carries all but guaranteed. He has upside for more work than that, and has huge upside when he touches the ball – which makes him a decent bet in large-field tourneys, on the off chance he breaks one of his runs or catches for a long touchdown. (If Kamara sees 13+ touches – as he has the last two games – his chances of paying off rise even higher.)

I expect the Saints to get Michael Thomas involved this week after he had the quietest game of his career in Week 6. Last week represented the first time in his career Thomas has had fewer than four catches, and the first time he has had fewer than 40 yards. In PPR scoring, the worst game of Thomas’ career before last week was 8.0 points (6.0 in half-PPR), so I’m comfortable keeping his floor in that range even after he dropped lower than that in Week 6. Thomas has seen double-digit targets in 60% of his career games and is Brees’ preferred target in the red zone (he ranked third in the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard-line last year), which is enough to justify him as one of the top plays on the weekend.

The rest of the Saints’ skill position players are fighting for scraps. Willie Snead played only 21 snaps last week, while Coby Fleener has six targets in his last three games. Ted Ginn has big-play upside, but his floor is too low to pull me toward him, and Brandon Coleman is favored in the red zone, but he’s not doing enough outside that area to create much ceiling.

With the injury to Aaron Rodgers, the shootout potential for this game drops a bit – but there is still plenty to like in this spot, and this is a game we should be targeting this weekend.

Players I like in cash games: Brett Hundley, Michael Thomas, Mark Ingram

Players I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

Davis Mattek’s Automatek Absolutes Article Image

Brett Hundley

Playing a home game against the New Orleans Saints is about the easiest situation that Hundley could have ever asked for in his first starter as a Packer. Sure, it is not optimal to fill in for the greatest QB to ever do it, but this is how you adjust yourself. Despite going from Rodgers to Hundley, the Packers team total is hovering around 21. The Saints defense actually looks decent from DVOA perspective, ranking right about league average but they are allowing the 8th most net adjusted yards per attempt and the 7th highest completion percentage. This does not project as a “Hoyer In Week 5” sort of spot where Hundley can win you your games by himself but I certainly feel more confident in Hundley as a player than I do about Kevin Hogan who grinded out 10 points for us last week.

Hundley as a college player should give us a little insight to why he is a play this week; with value quarterbacks if they can add meaningful rushing upside, it makes their floor so much better than 2x their salary is almost a lock. In college, Hundley had 479 rushing attempts (!!!!) for 1747 yards and 30 touchdowns to go along with 75 passing TD’s to only 25 interceptions. In limited preseason game time, Hundley has 10 passing TD’s to 2 interceptions and 2 rushing touchdowns. I have seen a baseline of competency from Hundley at the previous levels he has played at, he has an All Pro wide receiver and two excellent complimentary pieces, a former pro bowl tight end and two well above average talented running back against a mediocre at best defense while playing at one of the best home field advantage stadiums. I think Hundley is a relatively easy cash game play to make on DraftKings.

Mark Ingram

Ingram was an absolute stone lock must play last week and he absolutely came through as the chalk. He also received a commiserate price hike on both sites as a result of his heroics against the Lions. When something like this happens, i.e a super chalk cheap running back ends up being the highest scorer of the week, it is often hard to tell if the public will chase the high score or be turned off by the massive price increase. In Ingram’s case, I am expecting that his ownership will be similar to last week, hovering around 40% because there are enough concerns about volume, Brees’ on the road and price hike. The Saints are favored by 5.5 points on the road, which is honestly insane given the dynamics of how NFL betting works. Even if the Packers cover, it seems unlikely that the Saints offense would be so bad that Ingram has a total floor game here.

Ingram, outside of the results, showed me everything that I wanted to see with the departure of Adrian Peterson. If you actually take a second to think about this current Saints team, this is the least congested the offense has ever been with Ingram on the team. The Saints had only two running backs with touches on Sunday against the Lions. Last year it was Ingram, Tim Hightower and Travis Cadet. The year before it was Khiry Robinson and CJ Spiller in the mix as well. In 2014, Pierre Thomas was taking away meaningful work from Robinson and Ingram. In 2013, Ingram was behind Thomas and Darren Sproles in the backfield hierarchy. The same holds true for 2012 and 2011, when Chris Ivory was also thrown in this mix. I really don’t think that fantasy analysts are talking about this enough. 7 years into his career, Ingram is really going to have a chance to be a bellcow for the rest of the season. He played 66% of the snaps on Sunday against the Lions, had more targets than Kamara and doubled him up in carries as well.

Notorious Expert Insight on Davante Adams Article Image

I’ve never really considered Davante Adams to be a cash game play when the rest of the Packers’ receivers are healthy, but I’m encouraged by what I saw last week. Despite being shadowed by Xavier Rhodes (one of the best corners in the NFL), Brett Hundley still threw the ball Adams’ way ten times. He caught five of them for 54 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Packers are playing at home against the Saints. While I’m buying into the “Saints have an improved defense” narrative, I still think this is a below-average pass defense. The Packers will be playing from behind and they will be forced to air it out. Adams could smash value if he sees 10+ targets again.

TheSeige’s Expert Survey Article Image

Which player will you be most overweight on compared to the field and why? Saints defense – Apparently people think last week was a total fluke, but this defense is really talented and everyone wants to ignore it. Brett Hundley is not good at throwing footballs, so I like the Saints chances at sacks, INTs and TDs this week.

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