RotoTalk: Dissecting a Winner
Some of the most popular advice given to new players is to look at other players’ winning rosters. Take a good objective look at them and try to decipher the strategy. Were the successful picks made with a foundation of sound logic or was the some fluky stuff? Chances are that it was some combination of the two, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn a thing or two. Let’s take a look at the winning lineup in Saturday’s $500 Camelot No Stack Tournament on DailyJoust.. You might recognize the creator of said team.
Position by Position
Adam Dunn – He sucked on this night, but the logic was that he was up against Yankee starter Hiroki Kuroda who just so happens to be a guy that Dunn has taken deep a time or two. For the price, it was worth a shot, but didn’t pan out.
Jason Kipnis – He is sandwiched between the next two players in the lineup. I wasn’t thrilled about the lefty/lefty matchup, but I expected success above and below in the lineup, so he was a logical fit here. I wound up going hitless, but got on base a couple of times, drove in a run and stole a base.
Asdrubal Cabrera – The Indians were facing southpaw Dana Eveland who was making his first start after a few relief outings. Cabrera mashes lefties and had been swingning a hot bat. Those trends held as he gathered 3 hits.
Jose Lopez – There were a couple of things to like about Lopez. First, he had success in previous encounters with Eveland. Secondly, he was hitting cleanup in a lineup that figured to score a few runs. Third, he was available for the minimum price. Sold. Now, I certainly didn’t expect a career high 5 hits, but the logic underlying the selection was sound yielding fluky results.
Jose Bautista – I had a feeling the Blue Jays would get to Garret Richards and his underwhelming stuff in this game, which suggested to me that Bautista would be in line for some decent numbers. I was right – the Jays scored 11 times – and wrong – Bautista managed just 6 points.
Carlos Beltran – I also had a feeling that the Cards would rough up Jeff Karstens. I was wrong and Beltran did little.
Lucas Duda – The price fit and a date with Nathan Eovaldi didn’t seem overly threatening. He did little.
Yasmani Grandal – Let’s talk a bit about how fluky this result was. He became the first player in Major League history to record switch-hit homers in one game as his first two big league hits. That pretty much defines fluky. Anytime you can accomplish something that hasn’t been done in the 150ish year history of the game, you’ve done something fluky. Here was the logic on this one: 1) He was destroying the ball in AAA and definitely deserved the call up to the show. 2) The game was in Coors where hitting is easy. 3) Christian Freidrich was on the hill. 4) Minimum price. The was no concrete data that pointed toward Grandal as a sure thing, but for the price, there was no downside. Of course, the next night he went oh-fer with 2 Ks.
Johan Santana – He was facing the Dodgers and their horrendously depleted lineup. Everyone is a good start against the Dodgers until Kemp and Ethier return.
Those are the thoughts that went into making that lineup. Finding solid-to-spectacular production at the low salary levels were the key to propelling this team to a tidy 21-point victory in a competitive contest. It also shows that sometimes, no matter how sound the logic, some picks just don’t pan out as expected. It also shows that you can win even with a couple of flops on the team.
And now, a lineup…
Tonight is the first of 4 free rolls on Daily Joust for players that earned enough reward badges in June. I’m going to try to score a piece of that bonus buck pie with this lineup:
| Pos | Player | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP | Trevor Bauer | 240k | The phenom draws San Diego in his home debut. It should be a gem. |
| 1B | Paul Konerko | 83k | I love this price. He’s on a 4-game hitting streak and 2-3 with a double and homer against Oswalt. |
| 2B | Robinson Cano | 140k | This is a tall price, but he’s crushing the ball, is 27-65 against James Shields and, well, Shields hasn’t been good lately. |
| 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 121k | 14 for 31 lifetime against Blackburn. That, and it’s Nick Blackburn. |
| SS | Starlin Castro | 72k | I don’t believe in Jair Jurrjens. Castro’s salary is a good fit. |
| OF | Austin Jackson | 113k | He has really emerged as a star-caliber player in this league. He’s 8-17 against Blackburn. |
| OF | Mark Trumbo | 100k | All he does is hit homers. Zach McAllister is in trouble. |
| OF | Michael Cuddyer | 71k | Because Joe Kelly scares no one. |
| C | Jesus Montero | 50k | He is ice cold, but has had considerable success over his career against lefties. No risk at 50k |
If you’re new to Daily Fantasy, you could try a lineup similar to this out in the new $1 contest, the Page Thomas Daily MLB Tournament. It’s low-cost to join, and the winner also gets a seat in the “Summer Joust” where you will have a shot to win your share of $5,000 in prizes. Click any of the Joust links to join!. There’s also a 40% Deposit Bonus on your first deposit.
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