Seige's Slate Strategy: Monday, February 27th
There are massive tournaments industry wide ahead of this seven-game slate.
As I always do here, I’m going to look at the slate through the lens of the Value and Mid-Tier plays to help see how you want to approach building your lineups, using DraftKings pricing.
Let’s get to it.
Value Tier
Boy, there isn’t a ton of value on this slate, and what little value there is will be super popular since the DraftKings’ algorithm has tight pricing on every game other than the one with a 232 total. Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Monta Ellis and C.J. Miles are in that game and will be chalky value options.
The guy I probably like the most (most being a relative term) is Jaylen Brown, who is playing 26-28 minutes a game, is both SG/SF eligible, and has been shooting the ball much better since being inserted into the starting lineup again. For the last week we’ve been rostering the Kings for value, but with Arron Afflalo probable for this game, it kind of knocks all the guards out of play, given we have no idea what the rotation will be.
The Kings’ bigs were in a slightly better situation, but the play of Skal Labissiere has earned him minutes in the low 20s over the last couple games. Those minutes have been coming from Kosta Koufos and Anthony Tolliver, and until there is some clarity there, it’s tough to play any of them. I want to play Skal since he has the most talent of the three, but I’m probably stuck to doing that on a turbo or a late slate. Lance Thomas should be chalk at the stone minimum, but he has such a low usage rate that it’s tough to get excited.
Mid-Tier
The mid-tier is slightly better than the value tier, but there isn’t anyone I’m rushing to roster.
Jeff Teague is an interesting pivot off chalk options, Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas (both whom have their potential issues), but he draws Patrick Beverley defense. Dennis Schroder and Isaiah Thomas actually hate each other, and against IT2 defense, Schroder has a ceiling in this pace up spot. That said, we know how volatile he can be, and an ejection against Boston (in Boston, whose fans I can promise you haven’t forgotten) is completely possible. He was rattled the entire playoff series last year in Boston. If Kyle Lowry is out, Serge Ibaka should get a usage bump, which makes him interesting versus Lance Thomas or Hernangomez.
Cory Joseph has been chalk in these situations in which Lowry sits, but with PJ Tucker and Serge Ibaka now in Toronto, I’m not convinced Joseph keeps the usage he had earlier in the year. Jahlil Okafor is in a good spot against Golden State if he can manage to stay on the floor. Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder are a tad underpriced if you think Thabo can shut down IT2 again, but I’m not rushing to roster either.
The favorite mid-tier play for me is Nerlens Noel at $5,300. Noel should play 30-32 minutes, which should be plenty to pay off this cheap price tag. When he was in Philly and playing minutes, we would pay closer to $6,300 for him. Michael Beasley is an option with Middleton out for rest, but that of course is a wild roller coaster ride every time.
The conclusion is that the mid-tier is mostly underpriced and the value tier doesn’t have a lot of contrarian options, so if you go stars and scrubs you are going to have a very chalky lineup build. Hopefully we get some more news before lock, making this slate slightly easier to read, but for now it’s going to be a tough grind today.
Good luck everyone!