Seige's Slate Strategy: Monday, March 6th
Welcome to a massive 12-game slate to kick off the week. March is finally here, which means the NBA injury bug that normally sweeps the league has arrived.
I’m going to take yet another different approach today, because I don’t think there is any doubt at this point that the slate is going to revolve around a stars-and-scrubs approach. I want to talk about a few scrubs, who might not be on your radar, that I think make for interesting GPP pivots.
Cheap Chalk
Bismack Biyombo (if Nikola Vucevic is out)
Mason Plumlee (if Nikola Jokic is out)
Cheap Pivots
Terrence Jones – $4,000 – Milwaukee Bucks
Trusting anyone that is in a Jason Kidd rotation is tough, but the spot against Philly for Terrence Jones is one of the best he could get. There’s no Jahlil Okafor inside, so Jones should be able to exploit Dario Saric on both ends of the floor (or even Richaun Holmes if he draws a surprise start at the five). Jones should have no trouble making GPP value in only 25 minutes, and the upside for 30+ exists.
Jaylen Brown – $4,200 – Boston Celtics
With Avery Bradley missing Sunday’s game with hamstring soreness, Jaylen Brown continued to show why Brad Stevens can’t cut his minutes, putting up a well rounded 14-6-3 performance (and that was with five missed free throws). We know that the Clippers have historically struggled with aggressive wings, and lately Brown has been just that. Another benefit of picking Brown is his rebounding numbers have been quite good, as he’s gotten 5+ per game in each of the last four. If we don’t have word on Avery Bradley, it will be tough to play him, but I might do it anyways.
Amir Johnson – $3,800 – Boston Celtics
With Al Horford listed as doubtful, there really is no way that Amir Johnson doesn’t play 25-28 minutes in order to “attempt” to contain DeAndre Jordan. The usage with him is going to be quite small given how good a rebounder DeAndre is, but if we can get eight points, eight rebounds and a couple blocks or steals, we are at value, and he has the upside of a double double. Sure there is foul risk here, but Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk or Jonas Jerebko are not going to stop DeAndre. Jaylen Brown would actually have the most “success”.
Memphis Wings – There are a bunch of them in James Ennis, Tony Allen, Chandler Parsons, Vince Carter and Troy Daniels, so normally you would ask me why they are included here. Well, Memphis draws the Brooklyn Nets, which means it’s a great spot for one or more of these guys to rest. Tony Allen rested last time they played the Nets, while Parsons and Carter have been rested multiple times this year; if one of them sits, the rest become interesting value plays while playing 24-28 minutes against the Nets. (In addition: Toney Douglas at $3,500 is also interesting in blowouts, as he already typically plays 20-23 minutes).
Golden State Wings – This is one situation that I can’t imagine we’ll get some clarity on before lock. It’s between Matt Barnes, Patrick McCaw and Ian Clark, but they are all $3,700 or less. If we get word that one of them will play 25+ minutes, they would become interesting value options as well.
Chicago Guards – Dwyane Wade has already been ruled out of this game against the Pistons, and Rajon Rondo is a pure game-time decision. If he sits, Cameron Payne and Jerian Grant would become good value plays at $3,000 each, projecting to play 24-26 minutes. This could be get disrupted by MCW minutes, but I would suspect MCW would play more shooting guard than point. The Bulls traded Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson for Payne, so you’d think at some point soon the Bulls would, you know, actually play him.
Thanks for reading everyone, and as always, comments/questions are appreciated in the comments section.
Good luck everyone!