THE BAT X Opening Day Slate Breakdown
Opening Day is finally here! And THE BAT X is here to help you win. If you’re not familiar with THE BAT X, you can read all about why it will take your DFS game to the next level, but the SparkNotes version is that it’s the industry-leading system that has made many, many users very, very happy.
Today, I’m here to break down the Opening Day slate using the projections and tools from THE BAT X and hopefully make you some money.
Best Chalk Pitcher
Shane Bieber ($8,300 DK | $10,400 FD) — Regardless of where you’re playing, Shane Bieber is the guy you MUST play in cash games. He’s the top raw points play by a lot. On DraftKings, he’s even tied as the top Point/$ play.
In addition to industry-leading projections, THE BAT also lets you look at some of the factors driving each projection. For Bieber, we can see that he’s the most talented pitcher on the DraftKings slate (cnERA = THE BAT’s underlying context-neutral ERA projection, i.e. the player’s underlying talent… ignore Corbin Burnes above him, he’s not on the DK slate). And on top of being really good, he also has one of the game’s best pitch-framing catchers in Austin Hedges. That “++” next to his name is a pitch-framing grade, where ++ is the best and “- -” is the worst.
KC is one of the worst and most strikeout-prone offenses on the slate (I’ll show you how we know that in a minute), and Kauffman Stadium is a big park upgrade. Don’t overthink it, just play Bieber in cash (and with a contrarian stack in GPPs).
Best GPP Pitcher
Zack Greinke ($5,700 DK | $7,800) — Greinke is far and away the best GPP pitcher on the slate if his current ownership projection (8%) holds. (Oh, by the way… you get Ownership Projections with THE BAT this year!) That’s more of a DK-specific recommendation, but it works for FD too. With two games already rained out, this pitching slate has become really gross. Only two pitchers project for over 15 DK points, and the rest all fall within a 4-point range. In other words, there’s not a lot separating pitchers today, even though the field will surely glom onto a couple guys. Take advantage of that and play the ones the field doesn’t want.
Greinke appears to be one of those guys, which is great because he’s also tied with Bieber as THE BAT’s top Point/$ option at an absurd $5.7k price tag—the lowest on the slate. I’ve never been a big Greinke believer, but given the price, ownership, and projection, I am today.
One of the cool features of THE BAT is seeing how each team’s lineup projects in terms of overall offensive quality and in terms of strikeout-appeal (based on THE BAT’s underlying projection for each player in the lineup). The Cleveland Indians project as both the worst offense on the slate and the most strikeout-prone. This play is a no-brainer.
Best Contrarian Stacks
Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks — While teams like the Padres and Mets are sure to be popular on this slate (and for good reason), you wouldn’t want to play them in a lineup with a chalky Bieber (although with Greinke, go right ahead). If you want to play Bieber, you’ll need to get different on offense, and these two offer some strong appeal.
If you look at THE BAT Stacks page, you’ll see that these two project among the top three teams in terms of Ceiling.
They’re facing good pitchers in Shohei Ohtani and Yu Darvish, though, and so they’ll likely go overlooked. Adding to the appeal is the leverage you get from Ohtani and Darvish projecting as the 2nd- and 3rd-highest owned pitchers on the slate. Strong projection and strong leverage? Sign me up.
Ohtani is a great pitcher, but the Astros are one of the better offenses in baseball, and Angel Stadium has become a sneaky-great home run park (and has the potential to become greater this year with the new humidor).
The D-backs are, ummm, let’s say “less great”, but they will be playing with an open roof and the best weather of the night. Darvish is a bit overrated as far as aces go and is easy to steal against, concealing some extra upside. Plus, they’re prices are very affordable.
This is just a brief glimpse into some of the tools and ways THE BAT X can make you a better DFS player. If you’re interested in joining up for the 2022 season, subscriptions are available now!
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