Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Like a fine wine, Tom Brady continues to age well in his new Florida home. Tampa Bay rests atop the NFC South at 3-1 behind a top-ten scoring offense and defense. Coincidentally, the Chicago Bears also rest 3-1 through four games but the narrative is quite different. After making the switch to Nick Foles, the Bears took their first loss to the Colts in Week 4. Here are Thursday Night Football betting picks for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears.
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Buccaneers at Bears NFL Betting Odds
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
76% of bets backing New York, per ScoresandOdds.com.
Over/Under: 44.5
63% of bets on the over.
Buccaneers at Bears TNF Betting Preview
Despite the success, the Buccaneers limp into Thursday night with a crowded injury report. Chris Godwin, Justin Watson, and LeSean McCoy are all ruled out for Week 5, while Leonard Fournette is doubtful. O.J. Howard was placed season-ending IR while Mike Evans will test out his ankle in pre-game warmups. The Buccaneers could start the contest with Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, and Rob Gronkowski the most targeted skill players at Brady’s disposal. The Chicago defense leads the NFL with an opposing completion percentage of 56.38%. Tom Brady, already struggling with completion percentage (65.16%) and yards per attempt (7.1) could be in for a long night on the road. Look for the Buccaneers to attempt — keyword: attempt — to attack the Bears on the ground. Despite a strong pass defense and a 3-1 record, the Bears ceded 115 rushing yards per game in through the first four games. Ronald Jones might be a strong captain play for your DFS single-game contests on Thursday evening.
The Bears allayed the aggravation of fans tired of watching Patrick Mahomes light up the NFL by benching Mitchell Trubisky during their Week 3 game against the Falcons. Further pouring dirt on the career of Trubisky was Nick Foles — entering in relief only to overcome a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter with 20 points. Foles always seemed likely to start for the Bears, especially after a hot start to the season. Foles did not excel in the Week 4 loss in Indianapolis — finishing 26/42 with one touchdown and one pick.
Allen Robinson seemed to benefit from the shift to Foles and should be a popular play in DFS contests this evening. Robinson saw 23 targets over the last two weeks converting 17 for 224 yards. Rumors and innuendo suggest Robinson wants to feature for a contending team; Nick Foles seems willing to feed his star receiver. David Montgomery holds full control of the backfield with Tarik Cohen out. Montgomery has nary a rushing touchdown to his name and could find scoring difficult this evening against a Buccaneers rushing defense holding backfields to a league-best 2.7 yards per attempt.
The Bears will need to move the ball through the air, so, Foles and Robinson could be in for productive nights. Ronald Jones could carry a larger workload given the injuries to the Tampa Bay offense. Keep an eye on the pre-game injury news because the loss of Mike Evans eliminates 17.3% of the Buccaneers’ target share through four weeks. Dinking and dunking could be the theme for the road team this evening but Tom Brady has a long track record of successful employment of that approach.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks
Given the cloudy nature of the Buccaneers available offensive weapons, I cannot say I am confident in laying points on the road in Chicago — especially north of 3 points. While I can, I want to back a Chicago team that still has plenty to play for at home. The Bears could exploit a Tampa Bay defense that continues to funnel offense through the air — a perpetually befuddling strategy to use in today’s NFL.
I am not confident that the ex-Patriot veterans can dial the clock back far enough to overcome a strong defense on the road without more talented and athletic teammates in the starting lineup. While the money-line tempts me, I will take the 3.5 points. Give me the points in Chicago.
TNF Betting Pick: Chicago Bears +3.5 (FanDuel)
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Buccaneers and Bears Player Props
Here are my first touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Allen Robinson +900
Ronald Jones +450
Rob Gronkowski +1050
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Here are my picks for one of the “More or Less” games at Monkey Knife Fight for tonight’s matchup.
Tom Brady Less Than 265.5 Passing Yards
Nick Foles More Than 248.5 Passing Yards
Allen Robinson More Than 6.5 Receptions
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