Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 6th
A really good night to start the DSBC, as we have a ton of aces on the mound, some very good matchups but it will be hard to roster all of the good ones because in my opinion Draftstreet always puts out the best prices in the market. Good luck to everyone playing, and remember, this final is one of the best ones out there as it tests skill over a long period of time and not just one night.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Martinez | 0.749 | 0.286 | 0.316 | 1.02 | Masterson – R | 3.33 | 0.28 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.53 | 0.289 | 0.291 | 1.06 | Jackson – R | 4.65 | 0.259 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.661 | 0.29 | 0.338 | 0.89 | Alvarez – R | 2.61 | 0.248 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.652 | 0.337 | 0.388 | 1.03 | Straily – R | 4.41 | 0.332 |
| Billy Butler | 0.387 | 0.314 | 0.339 | 0.93 | Albers – L | 0 | 0.29 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.565 | 0.312 | 0.349 | 1.01 | Kelly – R | 3.1 | 0.302 |
| Jason Kubel | 0.25 | 0.304 | 0.281 | 0.99 | Hellickson – R | 4.6 | 0.237 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.651 | 0.273 | 0.336 | 1.02 | Richards – R | 4.18 | 0.255 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.092 | 0.324 | 0.37 | 0.95 | Johnson – R | 6.6 | 0.33 |
| Wil Myers | 1.02 | 0.378 | 0.39 | 0.98 | Miley – L | 3.68 | 0.302 |
- Victor Martinez had a solid game last night against the Indians and looks primed for another one tonight. Martinez is hitting right handers very well this year, and Masterson is a right hander who struggles against lefties. Masterson has been really good except for against the Tigers. In his 2 games against the Tigers he has given up 4 ER and 6 ER and Martinez has a nice 9 for 19 BVP with a 1.215 OPS against Masterson in their history.
- Jimmy Rollins is a cheap shortstop punt that I like for tonight. Even though Edwin Jackson has been solid lately, he is known for his blowups and Rollins is cheap everywhere. Rollins did go 4 for 6 off Jackson previously with 2 homers showing a bit of pop that he usually does not have. Rollins is also a threat to steal bases boosting his value.
- We have an Alvarez on Alvarez matchup as Pedro Alvarez meets Henderson. Pedro loves hitting against right handers and 24 of his 27 homers are against them. Pedro has not been great, but can be found at a good discount for great home run power. Henderson Alvarez has allowed lefties to hit him at a .819 OPS and does not have the strikeout rate so far in the majors to worry Alvarez owners.
- It has been a while since I have been really high on Shin-Soo Choo, but tonight looks like a good opportunity to use him. His salary is a bit lower due to his recent struggles and he gets to face a right hander in Great American. Choo hits righties at a 1.051 clip and hits at a .973 OPS clip at home. To get maximum value out of Choo, you want today’s situation.
- Billy Butler has really been struggling lately, bringing his salary down to a nice usable level. The Royals broke out in a big way last night against the Twins and should be able to keep rolling against Andrew Albers who is fresh up from AAA and does not have the most dominant stuff. Billy Butler has hit left handers very well in his career and he is hitting them well again this year so he is primed for a nice game.
- Adrian Gonzalez had a decent game last night against Wainwright, so he must be salivating for a chance to hit against Kelly tonight. Kelly has been decent this year, but Gonzalez has the history against him last time they met and Kelly is no Wainwright. Gonzalez is a very good hitter on a hot Dodgers team and can certainly make his value tonight.
- If Jason Kubel is in the lineup tonight, I would definitely consider using him. He has always hit right handers well and has all 5 of his homers against right handers this year. Kubel has not completely forgotten how to hit and although he has been struggling lately, his min price salary can easily make value and provide you with the ability to upgrade at other positions.
- Ian Kinsler has been putting up some decent fantasy numbers recently with the Rangers recent hot streak and should play well tonight against Richards. Richards is not a good pitcher and Kinsler has had some power this year against right handers.
- This has been absolutely a season to forget for Josh Johnson. It is incredible that a guy who was so good for Miami can be so bad anywhere else. He has 4 straight games with at least 7 hits and 5 ER and the Mariners have been killing RHP lately. I am going to roster Seager everywhere as I love his matchup tonight against Johnson even in Safeco.
- Wil Myers is still hot, and is still hitting most of what he sees. Myers should again be hitting in the middle of the Rays lineup and should have a great chance to produce again against the lefty Miley in a hitters park in Chase. I would rather roster Choo tonight but Myers should also have a solid game against a lefty.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.368 | 0.301 | 0.306 | 1.02 | Verlander – R | 3.88 | 0.347 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.969 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 0.97 | Gonzalez – L | 3.57 | 0.235 |
| Carlos Beltran | 0.967 | 0.324 | 0.367 | 0.9 | Kershaw – L | 1.87 | 0.279 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.767 | 0.28 | 0.335 | 1.02 | Darvish – R | 2.66 | 0.251 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 0.881 | 0.259 | 0.392 | 0.95 | Hernandez – R | 2.3 | 0.28 |
| Carlos Gomez | 0.364 | 0.36 | 0.374 | 0.94 | Cain – R | 4.57 | 0.29 |
| Buster Posey | 0.777 | 0.323 | 0.38 | 0.94 | Peralta – R | 4.57 | 0.305 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.938 | 0.286 | 0.351 | 0.99 | Sale – L | 2.92 | 0.143 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.602 | 0.263 | 0.291 | 0.9 | Kuroda – R | 2.38 | 0.216 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 0.812 | 0.369 | 0.409 | 0.98 | Mejia – R | 2.08 | 0.353 |
- Asdrubal Cabrera last year looked like he was having a breakout season, but this year his walk rate has dropped and his wOBA has dropped as well. He has had no success off of Verlander going 10 for 49 with 19 strikeouts and a .563 OPS which is a pretty significant sample. Cabrera is not doing much recently or this season and I am wary of using him.
- The one major guy who escaped the Biogenesis fate is Gio Gonzalez and he gets to take the mound today against the Braves. The Nationals desperately need a win and I think that Gonzalez can provide that, assuming he has gotten over his beating at the hands of the Tigers last time out. Jason Heyward usually does not like hitting against lefties as he has a much lower career OPS against them than right handers and many less homers as well.
- This matchup is the one I am most looking forward to tonight. We have the best lefty in the game in Kershaw against possibly the best lefty killing lineup in the majoys in the Cardinals. I think Kershaw gets the preliminary edge especially with the nice BVP numbers he has on the Cards most specifically Carlos Beltran who is 4 for 19 with 7 strikeouts against Kershaw. The Cardinals are a bit cold right now and could fall victim to the red hot Dodgers.
- Mark Trumbo has been homering a bunch lately, but on the negative side he is also striking out at an alarming rate. In his last 42 ABs he has struck out 19 times, which is almost 2 times per game. He faces one of the highest K/9 pitchers tonight in Darvish who just got finished mowing down Arizona and Cleveland for 25 combined strikeouts. I could see an 0/4 4k game for Trumbo tonight.
- It is really hard to recommend not using Edwin Encarnacion at this point, however I think you need to seriously think about sitting him tonight. He has to face Felix Hernandez who has been dominant in his last 7 outings only giving up a .609 OPS to right handers all year. Encarnacion hits a lot of homers against righties but he is at Safeco which is not a hitter’s park even with the fences moved in. I think this game is more likely to go Seattle’s way than Toronto’s.
- I recommended sitting Carlos Gomez last night, and he was a pretty big disappointment for all who used him going 0 for 4. I will recommend avoiding him again tonight, as it does not look like a good matchup for him either. He again has to hit in AT&T park again Cain who was dominant last time out. Cain should have another nice outing and Gomez appears to struggle as the best hitter in the lineup.
- The Giants are a mess right now, and they are hardly ever scoring over 4 runs. They struggled immensely with Thornburg last night, and if it was not for the Brewers pen, they would have most likely lost the game. Buster Posey has not exactly been the greatest lately, and he has not homered since the middle of July. Peralta has been very good at keeping right handers in the park and should be able to do that tonight. I have a feeling Posey will be decently owned in the DSBC, but if you want an upside catcher I would say look somewhere else.
- Curtis Granderson price is low, and Cano’s is lower on Draftstreet and it is very tempting to take them however I would say avoid. Sale has held left handed batters to a .341 average and 0 homers, and the Yankees cannot hit lefties as a team. Sale has a really nice shot at mowing through this lineup unscathed.
- I liked Paul Konerko and the rest of the White Sox for value last night, but Paulie did not participate as much as I would have liked in the thrashing of the Yankees. Tonight is a completely different story as they get the Yankees ace at this point in the season. Kuroda has been very very good only giving up 2 ER in the last 5 games. He is holding right handers to a .529 OPS and just being generally dominating. The White Sox had one nice game against the wrinkly Pettitte but Kuroda will shut them down.
- Michael Cuddyer has been doing OK during the Rockies struggles recently, but his price is still high and the Rockies are not producing on the road. Cuddyer naturally is hitting much better at Coors as with the rest of the team, and they have to face Mejia in Citi Field tonight. Citi has not been the easiest park to hit in this year and Mejia has only given up a 1.08 WHIP in his 2 starts. I would look elsewhere for production than the Rockies.