Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 5th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-07-05 18:16:17

I hope everyone enjoyed their Independence Day holiday, and maybe the entire weekend if you are off again today. It is becoming crunch time for the qualifiers before the All-Star game so it is time to get the right guys tonight and put in a solid lineup. There are a lot of games, and not a ton of worthwhile pitchers, so we could see some monster scores.

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Today’s Hitters to Target

• For everyone that has been taking Adrian Beltre at a lower price, he finally paid off yesterday with his 2 homers. I love him again tonight as he faces the right handed Harrell who just is not that great. If you pay attention to Beltre’s splits, you know he likes to face right handers and his right handed stats are a tick above left handed. Like yesterday shows, Beltre has 2 homer potential and is playing in a nice hitters park.

• Porcello has been suspended 6 games but the report is that he will appeal so he may not begin serving his “1 start” suspension against Cleveland. This should be great news for Jason Kipnis who has just been on a tear lately, crushing pitchers like Porcello. Kipnis loves facing right handers, steals bases against them and has a ridiculous hitting streak going, so he should make value.

• If you can’t beat them, join them. Last few times that Nick Markakis has had bad matchups, he has produced, so what can he do with a good matchup? Ivan Nova gets the start for the injured Kuroda and one thing that Nova has not been is consistently good. Markakis should get some great chances here and he also now has homer potential in Yankee Stadium.

• One thing Trevor Plouffe does is consistently mash left handed pitching. He does not have the home run record against them, but his OPS is still over 1 showing he still has the power. In the Rogers Centre tonight he definitely has the chance to go yard especially against Buehrle who is not the same pitcher as before.

• Ryan Howard used to be a top tier first base option, but his recent struggles have made him a really cheap option at first. I would never take him against a left hander, but when he plays a right handers especially Hudson, he is in play. His BVP against Hudson is a decent sample and he has posted a 22 for 67 mark with 7 homers, so he homers about once in every 10 at bats against Hudson. Some of these numbers are a little old but I still believe they hold a bit of importance.

• Here we have another lefty who mashes against right handers, and his average against lefties keeps his price down. Shin-Soo Choo has been struggling a little recently, lowering his price to usable levels on most places. He has a high ceiling today against Harang who loves getting beat up in these kinds of situations.

• We all know about Paul Goldschmidt and his huge power and why he makes a good play today at Chase, but if you are looking for a cheaper option, go ahead and look for Cody Ross. Ross’ skill against lefties is well known, and although De La Rosa has a solid ERA, Chase Field is regarded as a pretty nice hitters park. Ross has a decent history against him as well, with some success hitting 2 homers in 30 at bats.

• Jed Lowrie has struggled a bit in his last couple of games, but he still is in play today against Wade Davis along with all of the other Oakland players. Davis has really struggled this season, and especially last game when he only went 1 inning before getting pulled. He also struggles against those who bat left handed giving up a .933 OPS against them. Use Lowrie freely today.

• If you have salary room for Jose Bautista, do not hesitate to plug him in. He is red hot right now with 4 multi-hit games in his last 6 and the only game he did not have a hit was against Verlander. He is scoring runs and hitting for power, and faces Correia today who can give up home runs in droves, especially against right handers who he has given up 10 to this year. Call it the Dickey pants, or maybe Bautista is wearing the pants for Toronto right now, but I think he hits one out tonight.

• A really cheap filler today with home run power could be Alex Avila at the catcher position. Avila has been total garbage this entire year but has shown life since he has came off the DL with a few hits and a homer. His power all comes off of right handers and Masterson’s struggles against lefties are well documented. Avila is dirt cheap everywhere and could give you the sleeper that you need to get a better pitcher.

Today’s Hitters to Avoid

• Jake Westbrook is a daily fantasy nightmare. When he is pitching well, he takes half the game out of play. He does not strike anyone out so I would not use him as a pitcher, and he gets a ton of groundouts and limits the entire opposing offense. With Stanton’s return and Morrison’s return, the Miami offense appears watchable at this point, but I would stay away from them and Ozuna today as Westbrook could be in for a trademarked 7 IP 1 SO game.

• Joe Mauer recent past looks like he has completely forgotten how to swing. He does have 3 hits in his last 3 games but is really struggling to make contact as he is striking out over once per game in his last 7 games which is really not Mauer. Buehrle is not good but he has held Mauer to a .567 OPS in 56 at bats, so I would be very careful about plugging Joe in today.

• This pick has less to do with Freddie Freeman history and more about the opposing starting pitcher. Cliff Lee has been good this year, and goes very deep into games almost every single game. Lee gives up 2-3 runs per game but hardly gets lit up and if you are going to win a BVP you need that offense to go nuts. Freeman’s homer potential is limited tonight as Lee does not allow homers to lefties and Freeman does not hit them off of lefties. He has also struggled against lee in their 22 at bats with a .606 OPS.

• Hellickson’s ERA is a bit misleading as he had one horrible game where he gave up 8 ER, but has been totally dominant in his last 2 starts. The White Sox give him another team to dominate as they really struggle to score runs. Alex Rios has really struggled lately and it does not look like a good spot for him against Hellboy.

• Jarrod Saltalamaccia may not play tonight and he generally gets days off against lefties to allow Ross to play, but if he does do not use him. Wilson was dominant last game, granted it was against Houston, but Salalamacchia cannot hit left handers at all. I actually think he should just use his left handed approach because if you look at his history against him, he is just really bad with no power, around a .500 to .600 OPS career mark.

• If you are going to avoid Freeman today, you need to avoid Jason Heyward as well. Cliff Lee is just really solid and Heyward cannot hit left handers, especially this year. He is a bad GPP play as his upside is limited against a guy who always has a chance to go 9, and he is not even a safe play as he can go 0 for 4 with 2 K’s.

• I would not be excited to use Jhonny Peralta at all today. He has somewhat ruined his all-star campaign due to his horrible last couple of weeks. Peralta is not producing right now and now he has to face Masterson who is totally dominant against righties giving up only a .494 OPS against them this year. Not only that, but Peralta only has 1 single in 15 at bats against Masterson.

• Pablo Sandoval has just been one big pile of trash since coming off the DL. In fact, the entire Giants team has been horrible, not scoring runs and losing 9 of 10, scoring a total of 18 runs in those 10 games. Cleveland scored 19 in one game in that double header, so that gives some perspective on how terrible the San Francisco offense is. I would not touch Sandoval for any reason today.

• I am conflicted today, as you get a team who is really struggling in Milwaukee against a prospect in Wheeler who has been bad for 2 games after 1 good start. I am going to side with Wheeler on this one against Jonathan Lucroy, as Lucroy does most of his damage against left handers. They are in Miller park, but Lucroy has been pretty bad in his last 7 games only posting an OPS of .478. I think I can find a better catcher option today.

• Sit the hottest hitter in the game? I must be crazy. Well, yes, I am going to fade Hanley today because of a couple of reasons. in the last week he has put up some gaudy numbers, but did it in hitter’s parks against some below average pitching. Almost every one of those days he was a good play. Today he has to face Matt Cain who has turned around his season and now looks like the dominant force he was for most of last year. Hanley’s salary is out of control right now and he would really have to do something special tonight to make value.