Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 3rd
Friday’s in Daily Fantasy are the crown jewel, as there are some huge tournaments and huge qualifiers everywhere. In my option there are some really nice value plays out there and some pitching matchups that are going to be hard to pass up. Lets look at some of the hitters who are primed for big games.
Park Factor stats are for this year, but are still a small sample. They should trend toward the long term park factors as the season rolls on, so if something looks a bit off they will correct themselves.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morse | 1.081 | 0.254 | 0.359 | 1.09 | Romero – L | 0 | 0.25 |
| Jason Bay | 1.178 | 0.35 | 0.352 | 1.09 | Romero – L | 0 | 0.37 |
| Robinson Cano | 0.927 | 0.326 | 0.417 | 1.04 | Griffin – R | 4.65 | 0.387 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.683 | 0.25 | 0.303 | 0.95 | Detwiler – L | 2.03 | 0.174 |
| Carlos Beltran | 1.266 | 0.313 | 0.387 | 1.13 | Lohse – R | 2.53 | 0.319 |
| Desmond Jennings | 0.6 | 0.271 | 0.291 | 1.09 | Francis – L | 7.29 | 0.233 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.685 | 0.342 | 0.284 | 0.86 | Zito – L | 3.29 | 0.343 |
| Russell Martin | 1.454 | 0.25 | 0.387 | 0.95 | Detwiler – L | 2.03 | 0.158 |
| Ryan Raburn | 1.773 | 0.457 | 0.452 | 0.91 | Hernandez – L | 2.35 | 0.4 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.195 | 0.347 | 0.396 | 1.09 | Francis – L | 7.29 | 0.367 |
- Last year Ricky Romero was one of my favorite pitchers to pick on as he was terrible most times out finishing with a ERA over 5. You can imagine my joy when he got called up, and now we get to choose hitters against him. Michael Morse is back on the hit train and gets a very favorable matchup here against a guy in Romero who had a garbage spring which led to him getting demoted and now has been called up due to injury.
- Jason Bay is the same reasoning as Morse, and he is cheap. I imagine that one of the lefties like Chavez and Ibanez will get the day off so that Bay, who has been raking against left handers, can play. He is sure to be cheap enough to take him and he gets to face Romero.
- Whenever I can take Robinson Cano against at right hander in Yankee stadium, I have to seriously consider it every time. He has 2 HR power every time that happens, and with some good value plays today, there should be enough salary to pay for a guy like Cano.
- I think it is finally time for the Andrew McCutchen show to begin. He has been so bad recently, I have seen his price drop to insanely low levels for such a good hitter as himself. He is notably better against left handers, and even though Detwiler has been solid this year, McCutchen still has a chance to break out here.
- Carlos Beltran has had a dream start to the season. Here he faces Lohse in a hitter’s park, which is good in itsself. Add in his nice BVP in a decent sample against Lohse (23-42 4hr 11bb) and he becomes a really sweet option for today.
- I keep hearing how people are waiting for Desmond Jennings to live up to his hype. He has a good shot at doing something good today against Francis in Coors field. I think the Rays are a good option for a mini-stack and we could be looking at a leadoff homer from Jennings today.
- Matt Kemp is still struggling to hit right handers, but in true Kemp fasion, is still destroying lefties. He’s up against Barry Zito, and these two have a long history against each other which Kemp has gotten the best of going 24 for 55 and 3 home runs. He’s still pretty cheap for the upside he brings to the table.
- Russell Martin is taking the same path as AJ Burnett, sucking it up with the Yankees and moving to the Pirates where he looks rejuvenated. He was even batting in the 2 hole previously this week. If he is batting near McCutchen again, they could become a dangerous combo for the Nationals to deal with.
- I cannot believe I am writing this, but Ryan Raburn has been hitting well. Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland thought he could still be a major league hitter, but in his time playing with the Tigers he would have terrible game after terrible game. When they finally cut Rugburn, I was ecstatic and now he has surfaced with Cleveland and actually performing. He is known for his hot Spring season, so while his price is near minimum salary he brings a nice power upside while he is hot.
- Sticking with the Rays theme, Evan Longoria looks like the best option at 3rd base today. He has had a nice start and hasn’t really been talked about. He is pretty expensive, but you can afford him if you are playing guys like Bay and Raburn.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Dunn | 1.112 | 0.132 | 0.262 | 0.86 | Guthrie – R | 3.06 | 0.149 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.443 | 0.377 | 0.377 | 0.91 | Marquis – R | 4.2 | 0.32 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.779 | 0.313 | 0.332 | 0.96 | Kershaw – L | 1.73 | 0.2 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.946 | 0.277 | 0.294 | 0.95 | Kershaw – L | 1.73 | 0.294 |
| Nick Markakis | 0.66 | 0.286 | 0.309 | 1.07 | Vargas – L | 4.85 | 0.227 |
| Yonder Alonso | 1.012 | 0.313 | 0.331 | 1.1 | Miley – L | 2.37 | 0.25 |
| Josh Willingham | 1.046 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.91 | Masterson – R | 3.12 | 0.214 |
| Josh Reddick | 0.438 | 0.183 | 0.236 | 1.04 | Sabathia – L | 3.35 | 0.158 |
| Jose Bautista | 1.007 | 0.176 | 0.358 | 1.09 | Hernandez – R | 1.9 | 0.179 |
| Jason Kipnis | 0.714 | 0.255 | 0.238 | 1.14 | Hernandez – L | 2.35 | 0.176 |
- Adam Dunn has hit a few home runs recently, but like I said in an earlier article, he is useless if he doesn’t homer. Dunn has 19 at bats against Guthrie, and Guthrie hasn’t allowed Dunn to take him deep yet. In fact, 10 of those were strikeouts, so I would not expect much from Dunn in Kauffman tonight.
- Paul Goldschmidt has been cold recently, posting a .443 OPS in the last 7 days. Now he has to face Jason Marquis in Petco which isn’t the slump busting situation that I want.
- Hunter Pence has had a nice start for the Giants but has cooled off a bit. Now he faces Kershaw in AT&T which is not a good hitting situation. Compounding that with the face he is 1 for 26 off Kershaw in his career, I’m looking elsewhere.
- Brandon Belt is also a bad option, even if you are trying to save money at 1st base. He is 3 for 24 against Kershaw with 11 strikeouts and has a garbage OPS. Even Buster Posey who usually dominates lefties hasn’t had success against Kershaw, so I’m looking to avoid SF tonight.
- Nick Markakis is another BVP play as he is 3 for 18 off of Vargas. The beginning of the Orioles lineup is usually stacked with left handers, so against the left handed Vargas they could struggle a bit tonight.
- Yonder Alonso has been lacking power all of this year and now has to face miley in Petco. Miley has only given up 1 home run this year, even pitching at Chase field, so I would expect at the very least Miley to keep Alonso in the park.
- I am beating this to death, but Josh Willingham has a bad matchup tonight. He can’t hit right handers, and now gets Justin Masterson who is noted for having a weird arm slot that really causes right handers to struggle. This could be an ugly day for Josh.
- Josh Reddick has been garbage to start the season, and CC Sabathia isn’t who you want to see when breaking out of a slump. Sabathia hasn’t been that dominant to start, but should be able to tame the powerless Reddick right now.
- Jose Bautista gets the unpleasant chore of facing King Felix tonight. I am not ready to foot the bill for Bautista’s salary as the only thing keeping his wOBA in a decent place is his extra-base power. I think Hernandez can keep Bautista in the park tonight so I am going to avoid.
- The one glaring hole in Jason Kipnis game is that he cannot hit left handers. Late in games, teams will just bring in a lefty reliever against Kipnis to get him out, so he needs to figure out how to fix that or he could end up being a platoon player. He did his his first home run of the season, but he has been bad and is against the left handed Pedro Hernandez today.