Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 4th
I love September baseball. The teams fighting for the pennant are trying to play the best baseball of the season and the teams who have no chance are bringing up prospects who are trying to prove themselves so you still get a decent product out there. Part of the daily fantasy aspect is knowing these guys who might start in solid matchups for cheap; and although there are not any in this edition, I will be looking for these spots profusely in the next month.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Presley | 0.607 | 0.351 | 0.306 | 1.08 | Lyles – R | 5.12 | 0.25 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.745 | 0.33 | 0.4 | 0.99 | Buehrle – L | 3.92 | 0.315 |
| Buster Posey | 0.683 | 0.322 | 0.368 | 0.91 | Stults – L | 3.81 | 0.338 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.886 | 0.343 | 0.34 | 1.05 | Porcello – R | 4.44 | 0.326 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.733 | 0.363 | 0.474 | 1.07 | Dempster – R | 4.75 | 0.348 |
| Gordon Beckham | 0.364 | 0.306 | 0.313 | 0.97 | Sabathia – L | 4.91 | 0.179 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.99 | 0.31 | 0.387 | 1.04 | Halladay – R | 7.94 | 0.314 |
| Carlos Beltran | 0.616 | 0.329 | 0.373 | 1.03 | Arroyo – R | 3.66 | 0.328 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.683 | 0.31 | 0.299 | 0.97 | Sabathia – L | 4.91 | 0.289 |
| Yasiel Puig | 1.071 | 0.425 | 0.416 | 1.09 | De La Rosa – L | 3.33 | 0.381 |
- I have watched Alex Presley for a couple of years now, not only on TV but at Victory Field in Indianapolis, and even though his stats do not show it this year, he hits right handers very well. He was traded to the Twins and hit at the top of the order last night so I would expect the same tonight against Lyles who just is not very good and has allowed lefties to own him this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt is a budding superstar and will be for years to come. He is hitting like an MVP this year and I try to roster him every time against a lefty. Tonight he gets to face the lefty Buehrle in Chase and even though Buerhle is on fire right now he has allowed a .751 OPS against right handers and Goldy has the eye to crush the lefty pitcher.
- Buster Posey destroys lefties as you know so if he is in the lineup tonight he is definitely in play against the lefty Stults. Stults has been pretty consistent in giving up at least 3 ER in his last 5 starts and has given up a .761 OPs against right handers which are his weakness. As long as Posey is in the lineup (his hand was hit by a pitch last night) and his price is affordable, I would use him.
- I love Jacoby Ellsbury tonight and I think his price is well worth it as his upside is sky high. He faces Porcello who he is 6 for 7 off and he is facing a pitcher who is known to implode especially against lefties surrendering a .801 OPS against lefties this year. Ellsbury destroys right handed pitching, steals at will, and has some power when he wants to and I would definitely pay for him tonight.
- Hardly do I recommend Miguel Cabrera but I think tonight is a good time to use him. His price has dropped a bit due to his injury and a couple struggles recently, and while I wish the Tigers would put him on the 15 day DL, that does not appear to be in the plans. Cabrera destroys any pitcher he is facing and Dumpster is homer prone and has allowed 16 homers against right handed batters this year giving up an even worse OPS than Porcello at .865. Spend!
- I know that Gordon Beckham really does not hit left handers all that well, but he has a nice history against Sabathia going 8 for 20 with a homer. Beckham is better this year and Sabathia is worse, so looking at this situation it should appear Beckham could do some damage. Sabathia has allowed 23 home runs to right handed hitters so I think someone random on the White Sox hits one out as I have given up on Sabathia.
- Bryce Harper gets to hit against the right handed Halladay today and I think that is all you need to know. Halladay is not himself as evidenced by a 5 ER outing against the Cubs. He should get owned against the young Harper tonight who loves mashing right handed pitching.
- I am loving Carlos Beltran tonight against Arroyo not only because of his 14 for 35 with 2 homer history against Arroyo but also because from the left side is where Beltran loves to hit from. Arroyo is also struggling as well against lefties this year giving up 15 homers and was terrible last time out, so do not overthink this one too much.
- To put Alexei Ramirez here there must be a good reason as I am completely against using him as a fantasy option. The thing is that the shortstop pool is so small and unless you are taking a top tier guy you need to catch lightning in a bottle which Alexei can do tonight. Alexei is 11 for 26 against Sabathia and has hit a homer against him and has only struck out once, so he definitely has the history, he just has to make it happen.
- Yasiel Puig was held out as a precaution last game, but I am thinking he plays tonight. Puig has mashed left handed pitching all day long this year and I bet he is pressing to hit in Coors Field. I am looking for him to get up there and hit one out as I am sure he knows about Coors’ reputation.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Donaldson | 0.825 | 0.322 | 0.368 | 0.9 | Darvish – R | 2.73 | 0.275 |
| Will Venable | 0.75 | 0.314 | 0.35 | 1.01 | Lincecum – R | 4.38 | 0.253 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.259 | 0.272 | 0.341 | 1.04 | Sabathia – L | 4.91 | 0.204 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.652 | 0.279 | 0.287 | 1.04 | Zimmermann – R | 3.33 | 0.25 |
| David Freese | 0.498 | 0.321 | 0.316 | 0.96 | Arroyo – R | 3.66 | 0.257 |
| Andre Ethier | 1.377 | 0.321 | 0.343 | 0.99 | De La Rosa – L | 3.33 | 0.226 |
| David DeJesus | 0.582 | 0.295 | 0.324 | 0.99 | Weaver – R | 3.3 | 0.269 |
| Michael Bourn | 0.398 | 0.34 | 0.296 | 1 | Britton – L | 4.76 | 0.287 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.986 | 0.31 | 0.356 | 0.99 | Santana – R | 3.19 | 0.296 |
| Prince Fielder | 1.169 | 0.297 | 0.35 | 1.05 | Dempster – R | 4.75 | 0.256 |
- Josh Donaldson had a nice game last night but that was against the lefty Perez and the pen. Tonight he has to face Darvish who is dominant and has owned the A’s since coming into the league. The Rangers need a huge game from Darvish and I bet he shuts down Donaldson, Cespedes and co.
- Tim Lincecum has had a great history against the Padres as he has dominated most of them including Will Venable with a 10 for 45 mark with 0 homers. I am not sure what Venable is on, but he has cooled a little recently and has no real big split differentials. You cannot be quite sure what you will get from Timmy but I think he shuts down Venable today.
- Adam Dunn is considering retiring after this year? So he finally got tired of hitting under the Mendoza line and only hitting for power. I would not use Dunn with a gun pointed at my head tonight against Sabathia as even though Sabathia has been bad this year he has still been effective against left handers along with Dunn being absolutely terrible recently and especially bad against left handers.
- The Phillies put up a pretty pathetic lineup last time out which did not include Jimmy Rollins however even if it did, he would not have made it much better. He is hitting both sides at a meager .647 OPS and faces Zimmermann today who he is 4 for 18 off of. He may be cheap but I can find better options easily.
- I was never too big of a fan of David Freese, however if he does get to play tonight I would recommend sitting him. After his magical world series run, he has showed what kind of player he really is as a solid hitting not spectacular player. The problem tonight is that he is only 2 for 17 lifetime against Arroyo and I am not banking on him changing it tonight.
- Andre Ethier could be a chic pick tonight especially because of how hot he has been, but I would say avoid him. He does not hit left handers very well and most of his hot streak has been against right handed pitchers. Ethier has struggled against De La Rosa in the past going 3 for 19 and De La Rosa is better at Coors and against lefties, so bad spot for Andre.
- Well, David DeJesus is against a right hander so we all know he will be leading off for the Rays, I just say do not use him. I think Weaver is very under the radar as a pitcher right now even thought he has been struggling and DeJesus has been terrible in the last week. David has a pretty normal BVP against Weaver with nothing special about it going 11 for 39 with 10 strikeouts so nothing to be too excited about.
- Michael Bourn will play today against Zach Britton and potentially have some problems. In their history Bourn has struck out twice in 3 at bats. In Bourn’s history he is not very good at hitting left handed pitching and should struggle tonight even against Britton who is getting another chance in the majors.
- Kyle Seager has really been struggling against right handed pitching as he has dropped below .300 against them and is looking to rebound. Tough luck tonight against Ervin Santana who has really held left handers in check this year at the same OPS as right handers. I imainge Seager will be a popular play but I am going to fade him especially in Kauffman.
- Prince Fielder is a very interesting case. Prince has long been known for his ability to hit right handed pitching, but with work with the Tigers hitting coach this year his numbers are saying he is better at hitting left handers than right. When we are looking at daily fantasy these are the things I want to look at, so Fielder is struggling against righties, and he has a bad BVP against Dumpster as well going 11 for 43 with 14 strikeouts. Dempster also has been better against lefties than righties which makes Fielder a marginal play tonight.