Tuttle's Take: Week 5

by Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05) Last Updated 2018-10-06 12:41:08 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

Having qualified for countless live finals, Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05) knows what it takes to win in DFS. In this space each week, he’ll guide you through the lineup building process for both cash games and tournaments by going in-depth and giving out his “Tuttle’s Take” for every game on the main slate.

Week 5

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5) 47

Notes:

• Baltimore Ravens target totals (market share air yards) through four weeks: Michael Crabtree 33 (21%), John Brown 30 (43%), Willie Snead 24 (15%),
  Javorius Allen 18 (3%), Nick Boyle 16 (6%), Mark Andrews 13 (9%), Maxx Williams 12 (3%), Alex Collins 10 (1%)
• Jimmy Smith is expected back after a four-week suspension
• Cleveland Browns target totals (market share air yards) through four weeks: Jarvis Landry 48 (33%), Antonio Callaway 24 (27%), David Njoku 23
  (15%), Rashard Higgins 18 (13%), Duke Johnson 16 (5%), Carlos Hyde 7 (-1%)
• Cleveland Browns Week 4 target totals (market share air yards) with Baker Mayfield starting: Jarvis Landry 11 (14%), Antonio Callaway 9 (35%), David Njoku 7 (13%), Duke Johnson 6 (16%), Rashard Higgins 5 (15%), Carlos Hyde 1 (-1%)

Tuttle’s Take:

Baker Mayfield’s first NFL start was a bit shaky as the Browns lost to the Raiders 42-45 in overtime. Mayfield’s brutal end of regulation interception sticks in my mind the most but the reality is he is who we thought he was: a gunslinger who is going to look to stretch the field. Mayfield had a 9.4 aDOT and the only receivers without an aDOT in the double-digits were Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. The two most notable differences in the Browns’ passing game usage in Week 4 were Landry’s measly 4.9 aDOT and Duke Johnson’s spiked 10.8 aDOT. Landry still lead the team in targets but he saw his average depth of target shrink to Dolphin level proportions. Johnson, on the other hand, was used less like a running back and more like a receiver. Overall I’m not interested in attacking a Baltimore defense that is expected to get their top cornerback Jimmy Smith back and already ranks fifth on the season in pass DVOA. Still, the Browns usage trends will be something to keep an eye on with Baker under center.