United States vs. Japan: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
United States vs. Japan Odds
| United States ML | -135 |
| Japan ML | +115 |
| Over/Under | 10.5 |
| Date | Tue, Mar. 21 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
On Tuesday, the United States and Japan will meet in the World Baseball Classic final at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. EST on FS1.
Following last night’s come-from-behind victory over Mexico, Japan will hand the ball to Shota Imanaga to start this evening’s contest. The United States will counter with Merrill Kelly.
Oddsmakers are expecting a win for the United States in this matchup, pricing them as -135 favorites on the moneyline. The over/under on the total set at 10.5 runs.
United States
Imanaga gets the start for Japan
Shota Imanaga pitched for two teams in 2022, posting a 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 24.7% strikeout percentage, and a 5.2% walk rate across 158.2 innings of work. In 970.2 innings during his career in Japan, he owns a 3.01 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Though many people expected (and hoped) that Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish would toe the rubber for Japan to start tonight’s game, Imanaga is a reliable option for his team.
What to expect from Japan’s offense
Last night, Japan scored six runs against Mexico, but the damage could have been far more expensive if not for the heroic defense of Randy Arozarena in left field. Overall, Japan had a .333 xBA in yesterday’s victory. The offense registered 12 of the 15 hardest-hit balls of the game and 13 total batted-ball events with an exit velocity of at least 97.9 mph.
Entering play, Japan is averaging 5.9 runs per game for the tournament. They have walked 56 times in six games, which is twice as many walks as the United States, which rank second in this year’s Classic with 28 base-on-balls. Japan also has the best on-base percentage, highest OPS, and most stolen bases of any team in this year’s event.
Japan was 2-for-7 with runners-in-scoring-position on Monday and left 11 men on base. Expect them to be more efficient with their scoring opportunities on Tuesday.
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United States
Kelly gets the ball for the United States
During pool play, Merrill Kelly made one start, lasting three innings, surrendering two earned runs on four hits and issuing two walks. Tonight, he has a far more difficult task against an elite Japan lineup that will likely feature at least seven left-handed bats.
In 2022, Kelly was dominant against right-handed hitters, with a 2.91 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 24.5% strikeout percentage, and a 5.3% walk rate. However, he struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, with a 4.61 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 19.1% strikeout percentage, and a 10.2% walk rate.
Kelly could be on a short leash tonight for the United States in a winner-take-all atmosphere.
What to expect from the United States offense
Trea Turner has been the star of the show for the United States in this tournament, hitting four home runs and driving in 10 runs. Yet, he is only one of 10 players for this offense to have an .868 OPS or better in this year’s Classic.
Overall, the United States ranks second to Japan as a team in OPS. Entering play, the United States is averaging 8.2 runs per game in six contests, primarily driven by a tournament-best 10 home runs.
United States vs. Japan – Picks & Predictions
Japan’s offense is elite top-to-bottom, with no easy outs anywhere in the lineup. On Monday, Japan sent seven left-handed hitters to the plate in their starting lineup, despite facing southpaw Patrick Sandoval on the bump for Mexico. Tonight, it is likely that Japan will have seven left-handed bats in the lineup against right-hander Merrill Kelly, who is far less effective against left-handed hitters than Sandoval.
Though it may feel unpatriotic for Americans, Japan’s team total is an extremely strong play in this spot.
PICK: Japan Team Total o4.5 runs (-110, FanDuel)
Image Credit: Getty Images