Vanek's Views: DraftKings NFL DFS Tips for Week 14 WRs
Using his experience as a former scout and staff member at Central Florida under Josh Heupel, Jordan Vanek takes an in-depth look at the upcoming NFL DFS main slate on DraftKings. Formerly of The 33rd Team and 4for4 Fantasy Football, Jordan will do a deep dive into the best ways to attack the wide receiver position to help you climb the leaderboards.
The slate this week features several less competitive matchups on paper, including one of the largest spreads of the year between the Panthers and Eagles. Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop is set at 113.5 yards this week, which isn’t surprising given the Panthers’ weak run defense. However, a $9,000 Barkley with high pOWN% makes for an intriguing slate. There are plenty of ways for him to fail, whether it’s by simply aiding Jalen Hurts with a few tush pushes or if the Eagles ease off, knowing they have the advantage and a tough stretch of games ahead against the Steelers and Commanders.
This season has largely been dominated by running backs week after week. However, with wide receiver pricing dropping to some of its lowest points, I believe this trend is set to even out. I’m particularly excited about a few wide receivers this weekend who are priced at some of their season lows. As always, be sure to check out our NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS optimizer LineupHQ to keep up with the ownership changes and projections on the slate.
Now, let’s dive into my thoughts on the slate.
Vanek’s Views: DraftKings NFL DFS Tips for Week 14 WRs
Stacks
Josh Allen ($8,000, QB, Buffalo Bills)
Amari Cooper ($5,000, WR, Buffalo Bills)
Kyren Williams ($7,300, RB, Los Angeles Rams)
This week sets up to be a big one for Amari Cooper for several compelling reasons. First, the Rams have allowed the highest yards per attempt when targeting wide receivers out wide, which is where Cooper has received the majority of his targets. Additionally, the Rams have struggled mightily defending horizontal routes, allowing 9.75 yards per attempt against them. Given that Cooper’s targets largely come on these route types, he’s positioned for a strong performance.
On top of that, we have a low-pOWN% Josh Allen in play. Allen has the potential to explode in this matchup, with the ability to throw for over 300 yards, rush for 50 or more, and score multiple touchdowns, either through the air or on the ground, as he demonstrated last weekend.
For Allen to reach that monster ceiling, the Rams need to have success on the ground to keep the game competitive. The Bills run defense has proven vulnerable, with players like Breece Hall, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor all putting up big performances. Sean McVay is adept at identifying and emulating successful run concepts, and this is where Kyren Williams comes into play. Kyren is one of the NFL’s best zone-blocking scheme runners, and the Bills have struggled against zone runs this season.
All of this points to a game environment where Cooper and Allen could shine, with Kyren acting as the key piece to keeping the pace high and the scoring opportunities plentiful.
Aidan O’Connell ($4,800, QB, Las Vegas Raiders)
Jakobi Meyers ($5,600, WR, Las Vegas Raiders)
Brock Bowers ($6,500, TE, Las Vegas Raiders)
Mike Evans ($7,200, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
If they’re going to keep offering sub-$5,000 quarterbacks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I’ll gladly take advantage. The Bucs secondary is arguably the worst in the NFL. Additionally, Aidan O’Connell played exceptionally well last weekend, showing comfort in throwing the ball downfield. In that game, Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers accounted for a whopping 65% of the target share. While the sample size is small, O’Connell has averaged over 9 yards per attempt against the blitz. This is a key stat, as it demonstrates his ability to get the ball to his playmakers when under pressure—an essential skill against Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy defensive scheme.
There are several injuries to monitor for the Buccaneers, particularly with Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. Both are critical playmakers for this team. Irving exited last week’s game with a hip injury that had him limping to the locker room afterward. If Irving is out, I’m all-in on Rachaad White as part of this construction, thanks to his appealing value at a cheap price point and I think he gets it done as a pass catcher here instead of a runner. The Raiders run defense since Week 7 has been one of the best in football.
Regardless of Irving’s status, Mike Evans will be the main bring-back for my lineup. Evans leads the team in target share against man coverage despite missing significant time this season. He’s also been one of the NFL’s most effective players against man coverage, making him a great bring-back.
Mini Stacks
Rome Odunze ($5,000, WR, Chicago Bears) OR Keenan Allen ($5,600, WR, Chicago Bears)
Isaac Guerendo ($5,400, RB, San Francisco 49ers)
The Bears offense has shown improvement since firing Shane Waldron, but this week presents an intriguing dynamic against the 49ers defense. Over the past 2 weeks, the 49ers have leaned heavily on zone coverage, employing it at over an 85% rate. This plays into the hands of receivers like Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, who have been more productive against zone than DJ Moore. Both Odunze and Allen are targeted at higher rates in these situations, making them more appealing options. Between the two, Allen stands out as the better play overall, but the $600 salary difference can be significant when constructing lineups, making Odunze a viable value alternative.
On the other side, the Bears have fielded the league’s 3rd-worst run defense since Week 7, setting the stage for a potentially big day for Isaac Guerendo. Guerendo fits well in Kyle Shanahan’s rushing scheme, with the talent to break off explosive runs. In games where he’s had 10 or more rushing attempts, he’s surpassed 80 yards on the ground. While he may not see the workload Jordan Mason received during Christian McCaffrey‘s absence, it’s reasonable to project him for at least 15-18 touches. At his price point, Guerendo is a safe and cost-effective play with the upside to deliver significant value.
Ceiling Play
Justin Jefferson ($7,800, WR, Minnesota Vikings)
Justin Jefferson’s splits between outdoor and dome games are significant. Outdoors, he averages 77 yards, while indoors, it’s 109—a 32-yard difference. This game is in a dome. The Falcons play more zone coverage against strong offenses, and Jefferson is the primary target against zone.
Value Play
Calvin Ridley ($5,700, WR, Tennessee Titans)
Calvin Ridley has been a focal point of the Titans passing attack, tying for or leading the team in targets in seven of the last eight games. This week, he’s set up for a strong performance against a Jaguars defense that has played man coverage on over 45% of dropbacks in the past two weeks.
The Titans faced a similarly high rate of man coverage earlier this season against the Detroit Lions, which resulted in Ridley’s most productive game of the year—over 10 targets and 100 yards. Ridley was highly effective in that matchup, taking advantage of the coverage to create explosive plays.
For more NFL DFS content and access to all of our data and tools, head to the NFL Content Schedule. To sweat your lineups and bets with us, go to our RotoGrinders Discord and find the NFL channel!
Image Credit: Getty Images