Week 10 NFL DFS Snap Counts, Air Yards, and Usage Facts
In this space, we’re gonna look at NFL snap counts and usage facts, including wide receiver air yards, to consider as you make NFL DFS picks and Week 10 predictions.
Check out RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS Usage tool to view NFL air yards and snap counts for every player ahead NFL Week 10 — a free app for DFS players or sports bettors specializing in NFL props.
NFL SNAP COUNTS, AIR YARDS, AND USAGE FACTS – NFL DFS TIPS WEEK 10
QB: Pass Happy Mahomes Returns to Main Slate
Patrick Mahomes vs. Jaguars
Patrick Mahomes has not been in our main slate lives very much, but he is this week. And, boy, is he in our lives.
Mahomes’ 46.3 dropbacks per game is third-most in the NFL, among QBs with at least four starts, behind only Matt Ryan (46.7) and Justin Herbert (46.5).
The Chiefs have — by far — the highest implied total on the slate (30.0).
Justin Fields vs. Lions
There’s a big gap between the Giants’ 25th-ranked defense DVOA (7.7%) and the Lions’ 26th-ranked defense DVOA (9.9%).
Justin Fields is coming off of an otherworldly Week 9, where he ran for 178 yards, but also dropped back 38 times, which was only the second time this season he’s dropped back more than 35 times.
Fields is tied for 20th in dropbacks (266), but is 10th in pass attempts of 20-plus yards (33).
The Bears are only -3 favorites, despite being at home, so we should expect a hotly contested game where Fields tries to will them to a win with his arm and his legs.
RB: Etienne Turns Into Bell Cow for NFL DFS
Alvin Kamara at Steelers
Alvin Kamara has averaged a 74% snap share since Week 3. And his 23.3 opportunities per game are third-most in the NFL — behind only Derrick Henry (27.8) and Dameon Pierce (24.8). This includes 7.5 targets per game (2nd to Austin Ekeler), where he had nine, nine, and 10 from Week 6 through Week 8.
The Saints-Steelers game only has a 40.5 total and the Saints implied total is only 21.5, but Kamara is showing himself to be more gamescript-proof than ever. He’s carrying the entire load of the offense.
Aaron Jones vs. Cowboys
On one hand, this isn’t a timeshare. Aaron Jones (ankle) got a little dinged up in Week 9, and played 68% of snaps from Weeks 5 through Week 8. I repeat, this is not a timeshare.
On the other hand, the Cowboys rank 1st in defense DVOA, so they should matter here.
But, overall, the Packers are hot garbage. Their inability to pass the ball downfield, so Jones’ can get a ton of volume and that’s all he needs.
Travis Etienne at Chiefs
Travis Etienne has had bell cow volume since Week 7:
Week 7 – 80% snap share
Week 8 – 79%
Week 9 – 81%
And with being on the field has come getting the ball in his hands:
Week 7 – 20 opportunities
Week 8 – 27
Week 9 – 30
His 25.7 opportunities per game over the last weeks ranks third, behind Derrick Henry (27.7) and Saquon Barkley (26.5).
WR: Adams’ Air Yards Make Him an NFL DFS Pick for GPPs
Tyreek Hill vs. Browns
The first NFL receiver to 100 targets in 2022 is Tyreek Hill. His 11.1 targets per game is second to only Cooper Kupp (11.6).
This volume is coming with an 11.13 aDOT for 130.1 air yards per game, which ranks second to the 130.6 of Chris Olave.
The Dolphins have very much engineered the offense around Hill with the commitment to getting him the ball all over the field. Even deep.
Davante Adams vs. Colts
Davante Adams is third in air yards per game (120.4), but has been incredibly boom-bust.
In Weeks 1, 5, and 9, he had 177, 154, and 194 air yards.
In Weeks 2, 3, and 8, he had 81, 76, and 85.
That’s three over 150 and the other five under 105, including the three we noted under 90.
He’s a great tournament play almost every week for this reason, but should we be cautious with him in a positive game script? Smells like the Josh Jacobs show with Vegas -6.5.
TE: Watch Out for This NFL DFS Sleeper
TE Lions at Bears
Without T.J. Hockenson, the Lions still are absent a reliable WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. The TE was still a visible part of the offense in Week 9, with the unit getting two of the five targets Jared Goff threw inside the 10-yard line. It was James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra who saw the two targets, but Brock Wright played a whopping 81% of snaps and ran routes on 18 of 20 pass plays where he was on the field.
The Bears are 31st in defense DVOA, so the Lions should get inside the 10-yard line with enough ease to punt on a Lions TE.