Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Prediction & Preview: AL Wild Card Game Picks
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | -124 |
| Red Sox Odds | -+106 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Date | Tuesday, Oct. 5 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
On Tuesday night, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox will battle in the American League Wild Card game to determine which team has the opportunity to play the Tampa Bay Rays in the division series. Entering play, New York has won nine of their last 12 contests. Boston has won 11 of their last 16 games. This evening, the Yankees will send their 324 million dollar man, Gerrit Cole, to the hill. He will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi. Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to advance to the next round of the postseason, pricing New York as -124 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Yankees -124
Across 181.1 innings of work in 2021, Cole turned in a 3.23 ERA, 3.15 xERA, and a 2.92 FIP. Cole ranked in the 86th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout and walk percentage, whiff-rate, and chase rate. He was equally good both at Yankee Stadium and when pitching on the road—posting a 2.92 FIP and a 2.84 xFIP at home compared to a 2.92 FIP and a 3.01 xFIP on the road. Cole was roughed up in two of his last three starts to end the regular season, but he was excellent in the second half of the campaign with a 3.66 ERA and a 2.74 FIP over his last 13 starts. Bettors should expect a strong outing from him tonight with New York’s season on the line.
The Yankees were one of the most inconsistent offensive attacks in Major League Baseball this season, at times looking like a juggernaut, and at other times looking lost at the plate. Since the beginning of September, New York ranks 16th in OPS and ninth in ISO. They also rank 18th in walk rate and 25th in strikeout percentage over that span. Down the stretch, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were two of the hottest hitters in baseball—helping to secure a postseason berth for New York. The Yankees will likely need strong showings from these two stars in this one if they hope to still be playing baseball later this week. It is worth noting that D.J. LeMahieu will not play in this contest due to an injury.
New York’s bullpen was not as dominant as fans have grown accustomed to in recent years. However, they seemed to lock-in towards the end of the regular season, ranking fifth in bullpen FIP over the last 30 days. An off day yesterday means that everyone should be available for this group tonight. Chad Green, Wandy Peralta, Jonathan Loaisiga, Aroldis Chapman, and Clay Holmes all threw on Sunday, but none of them have thrown more than 24 pitches in the last three days, so there should be no usage concerns.
Boston Red Sox +106
Eovaldi shined in 2021 with a 3.75 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 2.79 FIP in 32 starts for the Red Sox. He ranked in the 62nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout and walk percentage, and chase rate. He was even better when pitching at Fenway Park, where he posted a 2.43 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP this year in 114.0 innings. Since the All-Star break, Eovaldi owns a 3.87 ERA and a 3.03 FIP. In his last 14 trips to the mound, he has allowed three runs or fewer on 11 occasions, but when he has been bad, he has been really bad—allowing seven or more earned runs in two of his other three starts during that span. Eovaldi has been great far more often than he has been terrible in 2021, so bettors have little choice but to bet on a strong outing from him in this one.
Though it seemed that Boston struggled at the plate down the stretch, they still managed to rank third in OPS and seventh in ISO over the final month and change of the regular season. During that stretch, they also ranked seventh in walk-rate and 13th in strikeout percentage. The Red Sox have a deep lineup with Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, Hunter Renfroe, and Xander Bogaerts all being capable of doing significant damage with the bat in their hands.
Note: Martinez has been ruled OUT for Tuesday night.
Similar to New York, Boston had yesterday as an off-day to rest their bullpen. The only pitcher with any usage concerns in this group heading into tonight is Garrett Richards, who has thrown three of the last five days. Everyone else should be available for a relief corps that ranked 10th in bullpen FIP over the final month of the regular season.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Wild Card Pick
Five of the last eight American League Wild Card games have totaled seven runs or less. When good offenses meet good pitching in the postseason, pitching rarely fails to prevail. Cole and Eovaldi have been two of baseball’s best starting pitchers in 2021. Both starters will be relieved by top-10 relief units. The under is a strong play in this one.
PICK: Under 8 (-110)
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