Marte has been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Wilmer Flores, who will now play second base and slot directly into Marte’s vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Logan Webb at home this evening.
Brewers’ bats will likely be very popular across all contests tonight as they are in a good spot vs. Anibal Sanchez and affordable as well. Sanchez does have a 3.75 ERA on the year, but a 5.07 xFIP, 5.04 SIERA and 11.1% K-BB show that he is very likely to regress in the ERA department. Since 2018 Sanchez has shown about even L/R splits and can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. The Brewers have a good amount of hitters in their order tonight that have had success vs. RHP this year: Christian Yelich (.432 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Keston Hiura (.386), Trent Grisham (.361), Yasmani Grandal (.345), Mike Moustakas (.340), Ryan Braun (.329) and Eric Thames (.320) are all great options. Trent Grisham is leading off at just $2.9k on Draftkings and is one of the best value plays on the slate. Grandal follows him in the order at just $3.7k. Moustakas, Braun and Thames will all be $3.7k or less on DK and will bat 5-6-7 in the order. Hiura will bat 4th and is affordable as well with a $4.3k price tag. The Brewers currently have a 4.74 implied line vs. Sanchez and the Nationals.
Aside from Jacob DeGrom and a few other value arms, it is tough to find viable pitching options on this slate. One intriguing option is Jacob Junis, who is at home in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium to face the Mets. The Mets do have a scorching hot 131 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks, but have since lost good hitters due to injuries, and their lineup for tonight is largely unimposing. Their starting lineup tonight contains just two batters (Conforto and Alonso) who have an xwOBA greater than .315 vs. RHP on the year. Junis hasn’t been spectacular this year (4.80 ERA / 4.61 xFIP / 4.61 SIERA) but he does have a respectable 14% K-BB and is certainly capable of producing good starts here and there. If he can limit damage to Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto, Junis stands a good chance of hitting value on his $8.3k and $8.5k price tags on Draftkings and Fanduel, respectively. On a slate with very few options that stand out, Junis shouldn’t see high ownership given the Mets’ recent success and that he is facing Jacob DeGrom who should easily be the highest owned pitcher on the slate.
Since 2017, Hector Santiago has a 5.06 ERA, 5.75 xFIP, 8% K-BB and 50.6% FB rate and just a 16.3% soft contact rate, as well as a .354 xwOBA allowed and an 89.4 MPH aEV in 184 innings. Over 43 innings in AAA this year, Santiago had an uninspiring 5.57 xFIP and 12.7% BB rate. Though he’s a lefty, Santiago has actually been worse vs. lefties; since 2017, he owns a .390 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties compared to a .342 xwOBA vs. righties. Mike Trout (.428 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kole Calhoun (.365), Albert Pujols (.350), Wilfredo Tovar (.333), David Fletcher (.321), Shoehei Ohtani (.285) Max Stassi (.222), Justin Upton (.226) are all options in the LAA projected order. Trout has been on fire recently with a .465 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Albert Pujols (.222) and Max Stassi (.124) have really struggled. Stassi might still be worth a shot at a price of just $2k on Draftkings. Projected leadoff man David Fletcher is just $3.4k on Draftkings and one of the better values on the slate. Justin Upton is just $4k on DK; he’s been bad this year but figures to turn it around soon as he has a 121 career wRC+ and has never finished below a 105 wRC+ in any season. The Angels have a healthy 5.79 implied total vs. Santiago and the White Sox.
This slate is pretty dry at SP, so we need to get a bit creative here to find some value. Although Marquez is pitching in Coors, there are a few reasons to like him tonight, especially in GPPs. He’s had a bit of an up and down season but has seemingly found a groove over the past month with a 3.27 ERA / 2.97 xFIP, 28.5% K rate / 3.3% BB rate and a 13.9% SwStr. Marquez is facing the Marlins tonight at home, who have just a 75 wRC+ and 25% K Rate vs. RHP this year. They also have a league-worst 77 wRC+ over the past 30 days and were shut out last night in Coors. Rostering any pitcher in Coors is a risky sentiment, but Marquez has fared decently well at home: since 2018, he has a 3.14 xFIP, 19.6% K-BB and a .307 xwOBA allowed in home starts. Marquez is also much better vs. righties as he has allowed a .331 xwOBA and 14.1% K-BB vs. lefties compared to a .263 xwOBA allowed and 26.9% K-BB (!) vs. righties since 2018. The Marlins project to have just 3 left-handed bats in their order tonight. Given how this slate is lacking at SP, there aren’t many guys with Marquez’s upside in his price range tonight. The Marlins currently have a 4.36 implied total.
Normally a guy to avoid when choosing hitters, there are a few reasons it might be wise to get some exposure to Rangers’ bats tonight. Already very hitter-friendly Globe Life Park projects to see a further increase in overall offense per WeatherEdge. Jose Berrios has some wide splits that we can target, one of which being his home-road split. Since 2017, Berrios has a 2.93 ERA, 20% K-BB and .277 xwOBA allowed in home games, compared to a 4.44 ERA, 13.6% K-BB and .316 xwOBA in road games. He is also much worse versus lefties; he has a 18.8% K-BB and .280 xwOBA allowed vs. righties compared to a 14.5% K-BB and .315 xwOBA vs. lefties. The Rangers have 5 lefties in their projected lineup for tonight’s matchup at home: Shin-Soo Choo (.378 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nomar Mazara (.354), Danny Santana (.344), Willie Calhoun (.320) and Rougned Odor (.307). Logan Forsythe (.363) and Elvis Andrus (.303) are also potential options, but will not have the platoon advantage versus Berrios. Given the hitting environment, Rangers’ hitters are pretty cheap as Choo, Andrus, Mazara, Odor and Forsythe are all $4.1k or less on Draftkings, while Calhoun is $4.4k and Santana is $4.7k. Also working in Rangers’ hitters favor is a hitter-friendly umpire in Paul Hoberg. They currently have a 5.20 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins.
Jose Suarez has had a rough time so far in his rookie year as he has a 6.57 ERA over 49 and 1/3 innings pitched. However, he does have a 4.91 SIERA, 12.7% K-BB, 11.7% SwStr, .330 xwOBA allowed and 86.4 MPH aEV which all show that he probably hasn’t been nearly as bad as his ERA suggests. Suarez gets a matchup vs. the White Sox tonight who do have a respectable 101 wRC+, but that comes with the highest BABIP vs. LHP in the league (.342) that suggests they’ve been a bit lucky. By xwOBA, the White Sox have been the 5th worst vs. LHP with a .302 mark on the year. Suarez’s price is what makes him most intriguing, as he is a dirt cheap $4.9k on Draftkings and not much more on Fanduel at $5.8k, creating room for some of the higher priced bats on the slate. He projects as by far the best PTS/$ arm on the slate. Suarez will have the added benefit of an extremely pitcher friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Doug Eddings. He also projects to have Max Stassi behind the plate, one of the better pitch framers in baseball. Currently, the White Sox have just a 4.40 implied total vs. Suarez and the Angels for tonight.
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