CBB Odds For March Madness: How Futures Market Compares To Bracketology - RotoGrinders

by Thomas Casale (tcasale) Last Updated 2019-02-21T14:16:16

LSU Basketball — LSU Men’s Basketball Team (USA Today Sports Images)

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his latest Bracketology on Monday with no change to his top seeds. Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga and Tennessee remain on the top line. How do Lunardi’s seedings compare to future betting odds? According to oddsmakers, one of those teams isn’t a top-4 favorite win the NCAA Tournament come March.

Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga appear certain to be top seeds in the NCCA Tournament this year. Barring any sort of meltdown, those three teams will be on the top line when you print out brackets in March.

Duke not offering bettors much value

Oddsmakers agree those are the three favorites to win the tournament. Duke has been the overwhelming favorite since blowing out Kentucky 118-84 in its opener back in November. The Blue Devils are +180 at the Westgate LV SuperBook, followed by Gonzaga (+700) and Virginia (+800). (At FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey, the Zags are +850 and Virginia +1100).

$1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Read Review

Beginner Friendly
Trusted name

Get Bonus

Duke doesn’t offer much value at +180. However, the Blue Devils actually opened the year as the second favorite behind Kentucky. At one point, bettors could grab Duke at +400 or +500 to win the national title. Those odds are obviously long gone now and won’t be returning unless Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett both go down with injuries or if Zion decides to sit out the the rest of the season before becoming the NBA’s No. 1 draft pick in June. (Joking.)

“The bets that have come in on Duke have been of the fairly large variety,” said Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts. “We’ve taken a couple five-figure bets on Duke. People took a shot on them early in the season after they saw how dominant they were with Zion. They got around 4/1, so they have to be feeling pretty good.”

Oddsmakers don’t view Tennessee as a top seed

The other projected top seed by Lunardi, Tennessee, is the one team that could fall off the top line with Kentucky, Michigan and Michigan State all breathing down the Volunteers’ neck. Tennessee just got blasted 86-69 in Kentucky last weekend and while it was just the Volunteers’ second loss of the season, their hold on a top seed is far from secure.

If oddsmakers were seeding the field, Tennessee would actually be on the No.2 line. Kentucky has the fourth best odds to win the tournament at +1000, while Tennessee is tied with Michigan State with odds of +1200. Michigan (+1400) and North Carolina (+1600) are next in line but the Tar Heels could see those odds shorten with a win at Duke Wednesday night. (Back East, you can get Kentucky at +1400 at FanDuel Sportsbook, Tennessee at +1600, and Michigan State and UNC at +1800.)

Houston over-seeded?

One team Lunardi and the selection committee likes more than oddsmakers is Houston. The Cougars are 25-1 this season and Lunardi puts them as a No. 3 seed in the West. However, Houston is a distant +5000 to win the title. Nevada (+3000), Texas Tech (+3000), Villanova (+3000), Purdue (+3000), Iowa State (+4000) and Marquette (+4000) are all seeded behind Houston in Lunardi’s Bracketology but have lower odds to win the championship.

LSU picking up steam

Looking for a team with value? How about LSU? The Tigers are a four-seed in the East according to Lunardi but LSU is still sitting at a nice price to win it all with +6000 odds. LSU is 21-4 and tied with Tennessee for first place in the SEC. The Tigers have won 14 of their last 15 games and are coming off an upset on the road over Kentucky last week.

Following the win in Lexington, LSU saw its future odds drop from +7500 to +6000. Bettors are starting to take notice of the surprising Tigers at the MGM.

“We have taken some LSU money,” said Rood. “After they beat Kentucky, I think people saw value with their odds. We have some liability on them now.”

Most future bets still to come

While the college basketball futures market is picking up since the NFL season ended, most of the wagers to win the tournament don’t come until after selection Sunday. The public gets much more involved in college basketball betting come tournament time, while sharps tend to bet futures early in the season and then again once matchups are set for March Madness.

“The majority of action we’re going to take on future bets is between selection Sunday and the following Sunday when the first four days are over,” said Rood. “We’ll write double the tickets we have at this point. We really just scratched the surface.”