10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 27th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, August 27th.
1. Only twice in MLB history has a first- or second-year pitcher had a K/BB ratio of 8.00 or above at home (minimum 79 IP at home)…and both times, it was Noah Syndergaard (that is, of course, if he can maintain his current home K/BB through the end of the year). In his debut season of 2015, Syndergaard posted an 8.600 K/BB at CitiField, and this year, he’s not too far off his rookie pace, striking out 8.417 batters for every walk he issues at home. It seems like it’s been a while since Syndergaard has been an elite play, but in a matchup against the Phillies, who rank 21st in MLB with a 21.8% strikeout rate and 28th with a 6.9% walk rate against right-handed pitchers, Syndergaard is a near lock for a quality outing.
2. Even if the Phillies are able to make contact, there’s a good chance it’ll be weak contact – Noah Syndergaard’s 34.3% soft contact rate in August is best in MLB.
3. Marcus Stroman leads MLB with a 33.3% strikeout rate in the month of August. Previously, his career high for any month was the 25.4% in July of 2014. Sure, his August totals are skewed by his 13-K outing against Houston on August 1st, but with eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts, it’s possible that Stroman is discovering a bit of strikeout upside we didn’t know was there. He’ll have to navigate some dangerous bats in the Twins lineup (Dozier, Sano, Kepler), but there are strikeouts to be had, as they fan at a 21.6% clip against righties.
4. The Milwaukee Brewers have a .115 team ISO against ground ball pitchers in 2016. Just to add some perspective: Martin Prado has a .112 ISO this season. The righty-heavy Brewers lineup could struggle against Jameson Taillon (57.6% ground ball rate to righties this year). Taillon has shown some modest K upside as of late, too, with a half dozen or more punchouts in four of his last six starts, and the Brewers strike out at a 25.4% rate against righties, the highest in MLB. Taillon is no longer a secret, but even if ownership is high, he brings a nice combination of safety and upside in the mid-tier.
5. Blake Snell has allowed two or fewer runs in eight consecutive starts dating back to July 2nd. That streak is in serious jeopardy against the Astros. It’s a classic high-risk, high-upside matchup, as the Astros rank fourth in MLB with a .186 ISO against lefties, while also striking out at a 22.8% clip, the seventh-highest rate in MLB.
6. With a .454 wOBA and .288 ISO Jayson Werth is one of two players in MLB with a .450+ wOBA and a .280+ ISO against left-handed pitching this year (the other is Brian Dozier with a .455 wOBA and .392 ISO). Last year, Nelson Cruz, basically the Platonic ideal of a lefty masher, was the only player to exceed those numbers (.459, .315). In other words, Werth is having a dominant season against lefties, and now he gets Jorge De La Rosa, who, with a .350 wOBA allowed to RHB, has struggled against righties, even outside of Coors.
7. After homering twice again last night in Dodger Stadium, Kris Bryant has seven multi-homer games in his career (275 games). That’s tied for the ninth-most multi-homer games in a player’s first 275 games in MLB history, and the next-highest Cub on the list is Ernie Banks, with five multi-homer games in that stretch. Against, Julio Urias (or any lefty these days, for that matter), Bryant is an elite play if you can afford him, even in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium.
8. Another Cub who has excelled against lefties lately is Addison Russell. Russell’s first 109 at-bats against lefties in MLB: .236 wOBA, .138 ISO, 29.2 K%, 23.0% hard hit rate. His 124 at-bats against southpaws this year: .345 wOBA, .250 ISO, 22.4 K%, 31.5% hard hit rate. The Cubs shortstop is clearly evolving as a hitter, and as long as he continues to hit out of the five spot, he’ll continue to drive in runs – his 27 RBI over the past 30 days are tied for second-most in MLB.
9. In his first 20 games in the big leagues, Gary Sanchez has 10 home runs, or twice the amount the Atlanta Braves hit in the entire month of April.
10. Joey Votto has a 32.3% line drive rate against righties. No player has exceeded that mark against RHP in 10 years (Cory Sullivan had a 32.5% in 2006). Surprisingly, Zach Godley only allows a 23.5% hard hit rate to lefties this year, but this is Joey Votto we’re talking about – in Chase Field, he’s an elite play.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Saturdays and Sundays for the rest of the MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles! (Sorry guys – school is starting, and I had to cut these down to twice per week).