10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 4th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, July 4, 2016.
1. Since 2013, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw have each accrued 33 games of 10 or more strikeouts. Also since 2013, Scherzer has struck out 916 batters to Clayton Kershaw’s 917. However, during that same span, Scherzer has allowed 83 home runs to Kershaw’s 41. In a matchup against the most strikeout-prone team in MLB against righties (26.0 K%), Scherzer will get his strikeouts. In fact, in his last four games, he’s faced four teams that rank in the top six in K% in MLB against RHP, and here are his strikeout totals in those games: 11 (vs. Cubs), 10 (vs. Padres), 10 (vs. Brewers), 10 (vs. Mets). As always, you’re just hoping he can keep the ball in the yard.
2. Luckily, he seems to be able to limit the damage at home, as 15 of his league-leading 20 home runs have come outside of Nationals Park.
3. Lance McCullers’ matchup against the Mariners (115 wRC+ against RHP, ranked fourth in MLB) isn’t ideal, as the Mariners are full of dangerous lefties like Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, and Adam Lind. But consider: McCullers has faced 189 left-handed batters at home in his MLB career, and he has yet to allow a home run. Plus, he fans lefties at a higher rate than righties (30.0 K% vs. LHB, 21.2 K%). In fact, his 11.2 K/9 to LHB in his first two seasons is the second-highest rate ever for a pitcher in years 1-2 against lefties (min. 80 IP).
4. In the past calendar year, Kyle Hendricks’ 23.7% hard-contact rate ranks second among qualified starters in MLB. In first place is…his teammate, Jake Arrieta.
5. Carlos Martinez has allowed a .175 slugging percentage to righties this year. How does he have a number that low nearly midway through the season? By allowing just one extra-base hit (a double, at that) to the 169 right-handed batters he’s faced.
6. Last night, Paul Goldschmidt recorded a “jack and a bag,” stealing a base and homering in the same game for the second time this season. He’s not this year’s leader among first basemen in such games though – that honor goes to Wil Myers, who has five homer-plus-steal outings in 2016, the most by any first baseman since Jeff Bagwell set the all-time record by a first baseman with 10 such games in 1999.
7. Kris Bryant has a 1.127 career OPS against the Reds, including 7 home runs this year. Here’s some context: only one player in baseball history has a career OPS above 1.127 (min. 2000 PA) – it’s Babe Ruth (1.164).
8. With just 577 career plate appearances under his belt, Stephen Piscotty (who hit a grand slam yesterday) doesn’t yet have the track record to be known as a “lefty masher” of the caliber of a Josh Donaldson. But the 177 wRC+ Piscotty has recorded against lefties in his first to years is identical to Josh Donaldson’s mark since 2015. Piscotty’s .441 on-base percentage is the fourth-best in MLB history among players in their first two seasons (min. 150 PAs), trailing only Frank Thomas (.511), Russell Martin (.455), and Kenny Lofton (.446). Piscotty looks to keep his success against southpaws going on Monday, as he faces weak Pirates lefty Jon Niese.
9. Last night, Danny Espinosa hit his second grand slam in four days batting from the eighth spot in Washington’s order. He’s got six home runs in the past week, more than nine different teams in MLB during that stretch. Since 2015, Espinosa has more home runs (15) than any other player out of the 8 spot.
10. Shin-Soo Choo’s .402 career on-base percentage against right-handed pitching is tied for 20th all time, just a tick above below teammate Prince Fielder (.403, ranked 19th) and a tick above Hall-of-Famer Rod Carew (.401). Hitting atop the Rangers potent lineup, Choo continues to be a fantastic cash game option.