10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 11th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, June 11, 2016.
1. If you just read the headlines, you might think that Jake Arrieta wasn’t at his best in his last start, when he lasted just five innings against the Diamondbacks, giving up three earned runs and losing his first game in 24 starts (his last loss came on July 25, 2015, when his counterpart, Cole Hamels, no-hit the Cubs). But there’s more to it than that. In that game, Arrieta allowed 10 balls to be put in play. Of those 10, nine resulted in hits. The .900 BABIP he earned in that game raised his season BABIP from .213 all the way up to .249. And his xFIP for that game? It was -1.07.
2. One more stat to illustrate how unlucky Arrieta was: in that start, he induced a career-high 22 swinging strikes. His previous career-high was 18, which he’d reached twice, in a complete-game, three-hit shutout on September 16, 2014, and in a complete game, one-hit shutout on September 22, 2015. The lesson here is that Arrieta is as dominant as ever. Against the Braves (who rank last or second-to-last in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHP), he would be the no-doubt chalk play, if not for…
3. Jose Fernandez, who, after battling some early-season control issues, has punched out 28 batters since issuing his last free pass. On Saturday, Fernandez meets the Diamondbacks in Chase Field, which is far from an ideal pitching environment. But that might not matter when you’re striking everybody out. Fernandez has an MLB-high 37.7 K% this season, and if he’s able to hold this mark for an entire season (which, admittedly, is a tall order), he would just edge out Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson in their peak strikeout seasons – in 1999, Martinez had a career-best 37.5 K%, and in 2001, Johnson set his career high with a 37.4 K%.
4. In his last start, on June 5, Chris Young gave up 4 home runs to the Indians. A poor outing, sure, but not unprecendented, even for this season. 12 different players this season, ranging in talent from Max Scherzer to Jon Moscot, have allowed four homers in a game. Young holds the distinction of being the only player to have allowed 4 home runs in two games this year, though, as he also allowed 4 to the Yankees on May 9, as well. Young also allowed four homers in two games in 2009, making him one of three players in history to have two four-homer games in two separate seasons – the others are Brett Tomko (who did it in 1999, 2002, and 2003) and Hall-of-Famer Warren Spahn (1958, 1961).
5. Chris Young (yeah, him again – sorry) has allowed 26 hits to left-handed batters in 2016. Twelve of those hits have been home runs. His 6.23 HR/9 to lefties stands in stark contrast to his counterpart on the mound on Saturday, Jose Quintana, who has yet to allow a HR to any of the 72 lefties he’s faced this year.
6. Since 2015, Chris Archer has a 2.66 xFIP at home. Only Clayton Kershaw (1.92), Noah Syndergaard (2.37), Dallas Keuchel (2.43) have been better in that metric. He’s at home against the Astros on Saturday, a team against which he’s really excelled in his career. In five career starts against Houston, he’s sporting a 0.80 ERA, which is the lowest of any team he’s faced more than once. He’s allowed more than 3 hits to the Astros only once, when he allowed 5 in a complete game shutout on July 14, 2013.
7. Justin Verlander is currently riding a six-game streak of lasting seven or more innings. That’s the second-longest streak by any pitcher this season, with the current 12-game streak held by Clayton Kershaw being the longest. During Verlander’s streak, he’s got a 2.97 SIERA, a 30.8 K%, and has allowed opponents to bat just .159 against him. Verlander’s fly ball tendencies (46.3% fly ball rate, fourth-highest in MLB this year) could get him into trouble against lefties in Yankee Stadium. He’ll get no sympathy from the righties, either – Alex Rodriguez has five homers in 32 career at-bats against Verlander.
8. After his 4-for-6 performance at the plate last night, Xander Bogaerts has seven games of at least four hits since the start of 2015. That’s more than any other player in MLB. Against a soft-tossing righty in the Twins’ Kyle Gibson, Red Sox hitters like Bogaerts, David Ortiz (MLB’s leader in hard-hit rate at 43.3%), and Mookie Betts (multi-hits in seven of his last 11 games) make great tournament plays, especially when everyone will be flocking to rosters players in Coors, like…
9. Matt Kemp, who has 19 career home runs at Coors Field, which leads all active players (excluding players who have played some portion of their career with the Rockies), or…
10. Wil Myers, who is one of two first basemen in MLB with an average above .290, a wOBA above .350, and an ISO above .220. The other is Eric Hosmer, who, last night, became the first lefty since Brennan Boesch on September 1, 2012 to homer off of Sale. Hosmer also became the second left-handed batter with two career homers off Sale. Can you guess the other? Leave a comment below with your guess, and the first person to get it right will get a shoutout in tomorrow’s “10 Notes”!