10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 13
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for the NFL’s Week 13 slate.
Author’s note: As this article was written before Thursday’s Cowboys/Vikings game, all stats referring to either of those teams are updated through Week 12.
1. The Kansas City Chiefs have allowed 572 yards to wide receivers over the past two weeks. That’s 25 percent more than the team that has allowed the second-most (Dallas, 456 yards allowed). They’ve also allowed an NFL-high 36.6 fantasy points to receivers during that stretch. And now, they have to face Julio Jones. Since the Chiefs keep Marcus Peters on the left side 92 percent of the time, it shouldn’t be difficult for Julio to avoid Kansas City’s best corner, making Jones one of the top overall plays of the week, especially at FanDuel, where he’s inexplicably priced as the fourth-most-expensive receiver at $8,300.
2. Over the last four weeks, only Aaron Rodgers (118.2) has more DraftKings points than Colin Kaepernick (107.7) among QBs. A lot of Kaepernick’s production comes on the ground, as he’s gained 223 rushing yards during that stretch…more than the team rushing totals of the Detroit Lions (205) and Cleveland Browns (205). He’ll be facing a depleted Bears defense that gave up 46 rushing yards to Marcus Mariota in Week 12. As the 13th-most-expensive QB at DraftKings (just $100 more than the carcass of Carson Palmer), Kaepernick’s price still doesn’t reflect the floor and upside he provides.
3. Russell Wilson has a 107.2 career passer rating in the month of December; that’s the highest in NFL history among QBs with 18 games played in the month. His 22.9 DraftKings points per game in December is second all-time among QBs only to Cam Newton (25.2). So what’s the catch? Well, he’s coming off one of the worst games as a pro, as he put up a 38.8 passer rating in Week 12 (the second-lowest of his career) despite a favorable matchup against the Bucs. Fortunately, his matchup in Week 13 might be even better. He’s at home facing a Panthers defense that has been susceptible to the pass for most of the year and will be without its best player, linebacker Luke Kuechly. Assuming suppressed ownership for Wilson, it might be worth jumping back on board in Week 13, at least in tournaments.
4. Since Week 9, Mark Ingram is averaging 8.13 yards per carry; his 382 rushing yards during that stretch are second only to Ezekiel Elliott’s 400. Yes, he has lost some carries to Tim Hightower over the past few weeks, which makes him more of a tournament play, but when he’s been on the field, he’s produced in a big way – his 0.61 points per snap in standard scoring since Week 9 leads all backs (for context, David Johnson has scored 0.40 points per snap since Week 9). In Week 13, Ingram’s ownership should be low (Chris Gimino has it projected at 9.0 percent at DraftKings), and against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA, he’s an interesting pivot given the likely massive ownership of Drew Brees and…
5. Theo Riddick, who, after catching five passes on Thanksgiving day, now has 16 games of five or more receptions since the start of 2015; no other running back has more than 10 such games in that span. Riddick is the ultimate cash game play at DraftKings in Week 13, as the Detroit/New Orleans game features one of the more predictable game scripts in recent memory. It’s difficult to fathom any scenario that doesn’t involve Detroit trying to play catch-up with New Orleans’ high-powered offense, and Riddick’s continued involvement in the passing game gives him one of the highest floors at the running back position in Week 13.
6. Only two backs – Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott – have had more carries than Doug Martin’s 47 over the past two weeks. In Week 13, Martin faces a Chargers team that allows the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. San Diego has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this year; if he continues to see this type of volume, Martin could be the first.
7. Michael Thomas has a 77.4 percent catch rate. He’s the only player in the league with 84+ targets and a catch rate that high. In fact, he’s one of four rookie WRs in NFL history with 84+ targets and a 70 percent catch rate – the others are Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Eddie Royal. There’s nothing sneaky about Thomas in Week 13, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play him against a Lions team whose 74.0 percent completion rate will, if it holds, be the worst mark by a team defense in NFL history.
8. This season, David Johnson has played four games against teams ranking in the bottom 10 in the NFL in DVOA (Buffalo, Atlanta, and San Francisco twice). His lowest DraftKings point total in any of those four games is 26.1. If you can find any reason to fade Johnson against the Redskins’ 32nd-ranked rush defense (Football Outsiders DVOA), you’re digging deeper than I am.
9. Jordy Nelson leads the NFL in targets over the past four weeks with 46. He’s being targeted more than Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, or Odell Beckham, Jr. during that stretch (who have received 45, 44, an 38 targets, respectively). Of those four, receivers only Mike Evans (15.3) has a higher average depth of target than Nelson’s 13.2. Nelson’s seven red zone targets over that stretch ranks second in the NFL. So, he’s being targeted often, he’s being targeted downfield, and he’s being targeted in the red zone. The only fly in the ointment is that his teammate, Davante Adams, who has eight red zone targets over the past four weeks, the most in the NFL.
10. Latavius Murray seems to be going overlooked this week, so here’s a quick list of reasons to play him in Week 13.
—14 red zone carries in the past four weeks, second only to Jonathan Stewart’s 15, and the same number as Melvin Gordon, who consistently receives high ownership due to his red zone volume.
—12 carries inside the 10 yard line over the past four weeks, more than any other player.
—In four home games this year, Murray has five touchdowns, and he’s yet to have fewer than 88 total yards at home this year.
—Buffalo ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA.
—He was on the field for a season-high 49 snaps in Week 12, compared to a combined 17 for other Raiders halfbacks.
—102 receiving yards in the past two weeks, tied for third-most in the NFL among running backs.
10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to TrojansofSouthernCal for being the first to correctly identify the immortal Keith Null as the answer to the Thanksgiving Day trivia contest!
On to the Week 13 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize: a RotoGrinders t-shirt, sent to your doorstep. Let’s do it!
In Note #7 above, I wrote about Michael Thomas’s unprecedented catch rate given the volume of targets he’s receiving. Thomas has 65 receptions in the first 12 weeks of his rookie season. What other player this century caught 65+ passes in the first 12 weeks of his rookie season?
Thanks for reading, everybody! Best of luck this week!