10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 16
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for the NFL’s Week 16 slate.
1. The Cleveland Browns are allowing opposing QBs to post a 104.0 passer rating, a number which, if it holds, will rank in the 10 worst in NFL history by a defense over a full season. They haven’t intercepted a pass in their last four games, and that’s music to the ears of Philip Rivers, who has thrown 11 interceptions in his past five and leads the league with 17 passes picked off. With much of the turnover downside mitigated for Rivers, he’s perfectly safe for cash games in Week 16.
2. Six-hundred and fifty-nine yards, eight touchdowns, zero interceptions. Those are Blake Bortles’s numbers in his last two games against the Tennessee Titans. Of course, that’s cherry-picking a bit, since the two starts prior were underwhelming (13.6 DK points and 12.6 DK points). But his 99.6 QB rating in this matchup is the best of any opponent he’s faced more than once in his career, and the Titans have been susceptible through the air this year, giving up 300-yard games not only to stars (Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck), but also to weaker QBs like Cody Kessler, Matt Barkley, Trevor Siemien, and, well, Blake Bortles. It’s not a move for the risk averse, but for those who want to slum it at QB this week, Bortles is strongly in play.
3. Only Le’Veon Bell has more yards from scrimmage than Bilal Powell in the last two weeks (429 to Powell’s 341). Only Le’Veon Bell has more touches than Bilal Powell in the last two weeks (70 to Powell’s 61). Only Le’Veon Bell has more DraftKings points than Bilal Powell in the last two weeks (72.9 to Powell’s 65.1). Sure, the Patriots/Jets game has blowout written all over it, but that game script might actually favor Powell, as the Patriots allow the second-most targets, receptions, and receiving yards to running backs this year.
4. Brandin Cooks has 18 career touchdowns; fourteen of them have come in domed stadiums, while just four have come outdoors. In Week 16, Cooks and the Saints host the the Bucs at the Superdome, where he leads the NFL with 18.8 yards per reception (compared to his 12.5 on the road, which ranks 32nd in the NFL). Cooks will certainly be popular – Chris Gimino’s ownership projections have him pegged as the fifth-most-popular WR play at DraftKings – but he’s a high-floor, high-upside play who works in both cash and GPPs.
5. Another popular receiver will be Cooks’s teammate, Michael Thomas, who had 10 targets in Week 15. 6. Thomas now has four games of 10+ targets this year – all other Saints receivers have combined for three. According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas will be in an exploitable matcup, as he should primarily see coverage from rookie Vernon Hargreaves III (graded 65.1). The Brees/Cooks/Thomas stack hit last week, but there’s no reason to not go back to the well in Week 16.
6. Julian Edelman has 12 or more DraftKings points in eight straight games. No other receiver has had a streak that long this season. He hasn’t had any monster games, but against the Jets, who rank dead last in pass defense DVOA (including ranking 27th in passes over the middle and 27th on short passes, where Edelman makes his money), he’s the definition of a cash game play.
7. DeAndre Hopkins received 17 targets last week; it was second-most in a game in his career. Not coincidentally, Tom Savage took over as the Texans QB after Brock Osweiler was benched, and in roughly three quarters, he targeted Hopkins 15 times. Hopkins has been priced as high as $8,800 at DraftKings this year, and in Week 16, we get him at $5,200, largely because of the ineptitude of the Texans’ erstwhile QB. The matchup is far from ideal (the Bengals have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs over the past four weeks), but a Savage/Hopkins pairing in GPPs allows you to fit in other high-end players, players like…
8. LeSean McCoy, who has 11 carries of 20 or more yards, which second-most in the NFL. This week, he’s at home against a Dolphins team that has allowed 14 carries of 20 or more yards, which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. On a week where it isn’t mandatory to pay up for David Johnson (his opponent, the Seahawks, rank second in rush defense DVOA), McCoy should see high ownership, but his upside might be unmatched on this week’s main slate.
9. The Carolina Panthers have held opponents below 20 points in five straight home games – that’s the longest active streak in the NFL. This week, they face a Falcons team that torched them for 48 points (including Julio Jones historic 12-catch, 300-yard performance) in a game with one of the highest totals of the week. But it’s worth noting that before that game, the Panthers and Falcons hit the under in every game dating back to 2013 (six consecutive games). These division rivals tend to play each other tight, and this is the second time they’ve met this season. Certainly, this is a different Falcons team from years past, but the fact that these division rivals tend to play each other tight, and the fact that this is the second time they’ve met this season, it’s not reasonable to expect the 81-point outburst we saw between these teams in Week 4.
10. Larry Fitzgerald has played three games on Christmas Eve, and he’s found the end zone in all three games. In fact, he’s the active leader in receiving yards on Christmas Eve, with 291 across those three games. Now, in terms of their predictiveness, Christmas Eve narratives rank somewhere between “Bobble Head Day” and “he’s playing the team that passed on him in the draft 12 years ago,” and Fitzgerald is not a great play against a Seahawks team that ranks in the top 10 in pass defense DVOA. But give me a break – it’s note #10.
10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to redlishus for being the first to correctly identify Corey Dillon as the answer to the Week 15 trivia contest!
On to the Week 16 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize: a RotoGrinders t-shirt, sent to your doorstep. Let’s do it!
Which player holds the all-time record with five rushing touchdowns on Christmas Eve (hint: it’s an active player)?
Thanks for reading, everybody, and happy holidays!