10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 17
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for the NFL’s Week 17 slate.
1. With Aaron Rodgers being the clear (in my mind) top QB play of the week in an excellent (and more importantly, meaningful) matchup with the Lions, I thought I’d start out with a few quick notes Aaron Rodgers and his matchup. So here goes:
— Rodgers has scored at least 24.4 DraftKings points in his last four games against the Lions.
— With one game left in the season, the Detroit Lions have allowed a 105.0 QB rating to opposing QBs, which would be eighth-highest all time. Their 72.9 percent completion rating will, if it holds (and it should against Aaron Rodgers), will be the worst of any defense in NFL history.
— Among QBs with at least 200 attempts against the Lions, nobody has a better career passer rating than Rodgers’s 108 mark. And just for a trip down fantasy football memory lane, here are the next few guys on the list: Drew Brees (107.3), Steve Young (104.2), Daunte Culpepper (98.7), and Kurt Warner (94.7).
2. Jordy Nelson has received at least one red zone target in 14 of the 15 games he’s played this season. He leads the NFL with 28 targets inside the 20, which ties Eric Decker league-leading number from a year ago. Against Detroit’s 32nd-ranked pass defense (DVOA), he’s the clear (in my mind) top WR option in Week 17.
3. With one touchdown on Sunday, LeGarrette Blount will be the first running back since Adrian Peterson in 2009 to record 18 rushing touchdowns in a season. Against a Miami defense that has been a sieve to starting running backs as of late (at least 120 all-purpose yards to each of the last three starting backs they’ve faced), and with the Patriots being favored by a hefty 9.5 points on the road, this definitely lines up as a “Blount Game.”
4. Jay Ajayi has 245 carries and a 3.5 yards after contact average; the last player to have a YAC above 3.5 on as many carries as Ajayi was Adrian Peterson in his 2,097-yard season of 2012. Behind a terrible offensive line (Miami has allowed its backs to be hit at or behind the line of scrimmage more than any other offensive line in football, per Football Outsiders), Ajayi is having to do it all himself. His matchup is brutal, as New England has allowed just three runs of 20+ yards this year (fewest in the NFL) and ranks fifth in run defense DVOA. But Miami is going to do everything they can to prevent a shootout, which should mean massive volume for Ajayi if the game does happen to stay somewhat close.
5. DeAngelo Williams has seven games of 20+ carries as a Steeler; in those games, he’s averaging 28.3 DraftKings points. Le’Veon Bell has 11 such games since 2015; in those games, he’s averaging…28.2 DraftKings points. With Bell on the sidelines for Week 17, Williams figures to be heavily involved, although it’s unclear to what extent. Given his age and the fact that he’s recently missed time with injury, it’s unlikely that Williams sees 20+ carries this week, but he’s been remarkably efficient during his time as a Steeler. If we get more clarity as to Williams’s workload against the second-worst run defense in football (Cleveland ceded it’s 32nd spot to Buffalo in this week’s DVOA rankings), Williams could make for an awesome play in cash games.
6. Antonio Gates has 21 multi-touchdown games in his career, more than any other tight end in history; the next-highest player, Tony Gonzalez, has 18. Obviously, the vast majority of these games came from the younger, spryer version of Gates. But with Gates chasing Gonzalez’s all-time touchdown record for a tight end (he’s just one shy of tying and two shy of setting a new record with 112), we can expect Philip Rivers to target Gates with reckless abandon on Sunday. The catch, of course, is that Gates is matched up against Eric Berry and the Chiefs, who have allowed just one score to tight ends all year.
7. The New Orleans Saints have allowed just one 100-yard rusher this year, and that back was Devonta Freeman (14 attempts, 152 yards in Week 3). In 2015, the Saints allowed one 100-yard rusher, and that back was…Devonta Freeman (13 carries, 100 yards, 1 TD in Week 6). Freeman should be popular (Chris Gimino’s ownership projections have him pegged at 18 percent at DraftKings, the second-highest-owned RB), but in a game with an absurd 56.5 total, Freeman might have as much upside as any back in the NFL this week.
8. Since DraftKings opened up shop in 2012, no wide receiver has had a higher DraftKings point total against the Bengals than Steve Smith’s 46.6-point effort in Week 3 of last season (13 catches, 186 yards, two touchdowns). On Sunday, Smith has another meeting with the Bengals in Week 17, and while the game may appear to be meaningless, Smith has said there’s an 89 percent chance it will be his final game.
9. Only two backs have 10 targets in each of the past two weeks. One is obvious: it’s Jordy Nelson. The other is a bit more surprising; it’s Cam Meredith, whose 24 targets have translated into 18 receptions, 239 yards, and a touchdown during that span. While the Bears are out of the playoffs, Week 17 may be another proving ground for Meredith, who may have a bigger role next year, in the post-Alshon-Jeffery era for the Bears (Jeffery is almost certain to leave via free agency this offseason).
10. If Carson Wentz throws 36 times on Sunday, he’ll join Andrew Luck as the only other rookie QB in NFL history to attempt 600 passes in their first years as a pro. Andrew Luck’s passer rating was 76.5 during his rookie year. Carson Wentz’s? 78.2.
10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to Ballinonabudget for being the first to correctly identify Frank Gore as the answer to the Week 16 trivia contest!
On to the Week 16 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize. And we’re doing it big this week. For the final prize of the year, we’re giving out a RotoGrinders hoodie, sent to your doorstep. Let’s do it!
Fill in the blank (it’s the same player for both blanks): Among QBs with at least 400 attempts against the Lions, Aaron Rodgers and ________________ are tied with the highest touchdown percentage, both throwing for scores on 6.6 percent of their pass attempts. ____________ threw 40 touchdowns and 38 interceptions against the Lions in his career (6.3 INT%). Rodgers has been just a bit more efficient, tossing 30 touchdowns with just six picks (1.3 INT%).
Thanks for reading, everybody, and best of luck in Week 17!