10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for Week 2
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 2.
1. Last week, Cam Newton scored a rushing and a passing touchdown for the 32nd time in his NFL career, passing Steve Young for most such games by a player since 1960 (and possibly longer – that’s just as far back as Pro Football Reference goes). It took 169 games for Young to reach 31 such games, and it took Newton just 79 games to pass him (which means Newton has scored a rushing and passing touchdown in over 40 percent of his games as a pro). Newton’s big Week 1 performance came against the Denver Broncos, who ranked #1 in the NFL in weighted DVOA in 2016. Against the San Francisco 49ers, who are playing on a short week and ranked 30th in passing DVOA and 23rd in rushing DVOA in 2015, Newton might have the highest floor/ceiling combo of any QB in Week 2.
2. But don’t sleep on Jonathan Stewart, either. Last year, Stewart had an eight-game stretch of games with 20+ carries. No other player had more than three consecutive 20+ carry games in all of 2015, and Stewart was the first player since Marshawn Lynch in 2011 to exceed 20 carries in eight consecutive games in a year. The Panthers are 13-point favorites (the most the Panthers have been favored in a regular season game since 2011) in a home matchup against the 49ers, and the game script lines up for Stewart to get significant usage. And you could do worse than pairing Stewart with…
3. Carolina’s defense…because Blaine Gabbert. Since entering the league in 2011, Gabbert’s 3.10 TD% is tied for the lowest in the NFL, and his 173.6 yards per game is second-lowest (minimum 2,000 pass attempts). Only his teammate, Colin Kaepernick (172.9), is worse. Even if the Panthers’ inexperienced secondary isn’t able to force turnovers, they should have no trouble containing San Francisco’s gang of castoff offensive pieces (Gabbert, Jeremy Kerley, Torrey Smith, Rod Streater), making them a high-floor cash game play.
4. Adrian Peterson has scored touchdowns in eight consecutive games against the Packers – that’s the longest streak in NFL history against Green Bay. The last time Peterson faced the Packers and didn’t find the endzone was the same year new Vikings QB Sam Bradford was a rookie, on November 21, 2010. In case you’re wondering who owns the second-longest rushing TD streak against the Packers, you don’t have to look far…it’s Peterson, who from September 8, 2008 to October 24, 2010, scored in five straight games against Green Bay. Among players who have 200+ rushing attempts against the Packers, only Barry Sanders (5.4 YPC) averages more yards per carry Peterson’s 5.3. It’s no secret that the Packers’ focus will be solely on stopping Peterson on Sunday night. But given Peterson’s Week 1 struggles, his ownership should be extremely low in a home matchup.
5. Matthew Stafford has 31 300-yard passing games for the Lions…23 more than the player who ranks second in Lions franchise history, Scott Mitchell. Stafford put up 340 against the Colts last week, and the 2016, Megatron-less version of the Lions offense showed no signs of missing their future Hall-of-Fame wideout. The Titans’ pass defense doesn’t appear to be anything special, and if Stafford is going to air it out around 40 times again (he attempted 39 passes in Week 1), he’s in play as a mid-tier option in both cash games and tournaments.
6. In Week 1, A.J. Green caught 12 of 13 passes thrown his way (92.3% catch rate) for 180 yards, the most of any wideout in the NFL. The last time a player had 92.0% catch rate or better on 13+ targets with a yardage total higher than Green’s was Calvin Johnson in Week 10 of 2012 (12 catches on 13 targets, 207 yards). And that’s the only time it’s happened since Pro Football Reference started tracking targets in 1992. It’s far-fetched to expect another performance of that magnitude from Green for a second straight week. But with Tyler Eifert out, and with Marvin Jones now catching passes for the Lions, Green (who only topped 10 targets on four occasions last year) should continue to get all the targets he can handle. In a game where both teams could air it out, Green is an elite play in Week 2.
7. For the first time in the Drew Brees era, two Saints receivers (Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead) had 140 yards receiving last week. In fact, since Brees came to New Orleans, multiple Saints receivers have only exceeded 100 yards on just four occasions (Colston/Henderson three times, Colston/Stills once) – that’s in 159 games dating back to 2006. In other words, the issue with rostering Saints wideouts is the same thing that’s always been an issue with rostering Saints wideouts – Brees tends to spread the ball around. There’s no doubt that at least one of the Saints receivers will have a huge game on Sunday, but the odds that both Snead and Cooks might not be as high as they seem after Week 1.
8. Allen Robinson was targeted and NFL-high 14 times in Week 1 and only came away with 72 receiving yards. Last year, a receiver with 14+ targets in a game put up fewer than 72 yards on just one occasion (Larry Fitzgerald was targeted 14 times and put up 66 yards in Week 12). It happened just three times in 2014. In other words, it was an anomaly, and if Robinson continues to see such a high volume of targets, the big plays will come.
9. In Week 1, Will Fuller became one of four players since 1992 (when PFR began tracking target data) with 11+ targets and a 9+ yards per target average in his first career game, joining Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, and DeSean Jackson, the player who he’s often compared to. Perhaps most surprisingly, Fuller out-targeted DeAndre Hopkins 11-8 in Week 1. That might not happen again all season, but even so, Texans QB Brock Osweiler appears to be comfortable chucking it up in Fuller’s direction, and Fuller remains affordable, particularly at DraftKings ($4200).
10. Spencer Ware was the must-have running back of Week 1, but he’s got a stiff test in front of him in Week 2: the Houston Texans defense has held opponents below 100 yards rushing on seven occasions since the start of 2015, more than any team. And they’ve held opponents below 80 rushing yards in four straight games dating back to Week 15 of 2015. Ware is still affordable (he’s now $6,100 at DraftKings and $6,800 at FanDuel), but the price hike coupled with a tougher means he’s not the cash game lock he was in Week 1.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, and Pro Football Reference.
Be sure to check back on Thursdays this NFL season for more of “10 Notes”!