10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 8
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 8.
1. David Johnson has at least 111 yards from scrimmage in all seven games from Weeks 1-7 this year. Since 2000, only two other players – DeMarco Murray in 2014 and Priest Holmes in 2002 – have accomplished that feat. In Week 8, Johnson is in a difficult matchup against the Panthers, who rank sixth in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. But he’s been here before. Johnson has had three games against teams that currently rank in the top five in the NFL in rush defense DVOA, and here are his DraftKings point totals in those games: 23.2 (vs. Patriots in Week 1), 37.8 (vs. Jets in Week 6), 28.1 (vs. Seahawks in Week 7).
2. Since 2015, Josh McCown has started eight games as a Cleveland Brown, and in those games, he’s amassed 2,320 yards, 14 TDs, and 6 INTs. If you double the numbers he’s put up in that roughly ½ season, he’d have a stat line of 4,640 yards, 28 TDs, and 12 INTs. Here are the names of the QBs who bettered those numbers in 2015: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer. In Week 8, McCown faces a Jets defense that allows 296 yards per game, sixth-most in the NFL, and (more importantly) ranks third in rush defense DVOA. If Cleveland can’t establish the run against Leonard Williams, Sheldon Richardson, and company, McCown could put up big numbers through the air.
3. Since 2015, 11 visiting quarterbacks have thrown a pass in the Louisiana Superdome. Of those 11, 10 have scored at least 18.5 DraftKings points (and the one who didn’t was, understandably, Brandon Weeden). This week, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks travel to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that ranks 28th in both pass defense DVOA and run defense DVOA, and it could be an ideal “get right” spot for a Seattle team that was limited to two field goals in Week 7. Wilson has been limited in practice, and although he “guarantees” he’ll play (per RotoWorld), it’s worth monitoring his practice on Friday. If he’s at anything close to full strength by Sunday, he’s worth considering for tournaments, as it could be one of the few times where an opposing QB is underowned in the Superdome.
4. On 18 occasions in 2016, players have gotten four or more red zone targets in a single game. Why is the number four significant? Because it’s more red zone targets than Julio Jones has had all year. Of course, it’s worth noting that Jones also has four TD catches of over 20 yards, but even setting that aside, Matt Ryan has targeted Mohamed Sanu nine times inside the 20. In a Week 8 matchup against the Packers, like almost every week, Julio is a top play at his position. But until he’s more involved in the red zone, he’ll occasionally have tantalizing lines like last week, where he put up 174 yards but didn’t find the end zone.
5. T.Y. Hilton has 10 receptions of 20+ yards on turf this year. On grass, he has just one reception of 20+ yards. His home/road splits are as drastic as you’ll see for a wide receiver, and in 2016, he’s averaging 141.3 yards at home and 66.3 yards on the road. In Week 8, he’ll be on the turf of Lucas Oil Stadium against a Chiefs defense that ranks sixth in pass defense DVOA, but it may not matter; Hilton is the only receiver in the NFL with double-digit targets in six games this year. If Philip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief return, it could cut into Hilton’s production somewhat, but if one or both of them remain out, expect another big game for Hilton and…
6. Jack Doyle, who has 29 catches in 33 targets (87.9% catch rate). That’s the highest catch rate among the 102 players with 30 or more targets this year. The Chiefs have been great against enemy tight ends this year – the 44 yards that Coby Fleener gained last week was the most they’d allowed to a player this year. Opposing TEs are only seeing four targets per game against them, second-fewest in the NFL. Even so, i’s hard to ignore Doyle when he’s the 18th-most-expensive tight end at FanDuel ($4900) and the 11th-most-expensive tight end at DraftKings ($3500).
7. Ty Montgomery has had 10 or more targets for the past two weeks (including eight red zone targets last week). The last Packers WR to do that? Sterling Sharpe in October of 1993. Montgomery is an absolute must play in cash games for Week 8, as he’ll likely see tons of targets once again (Randall Cobb was “extremely limited” in practice on Thursday) in addition to carries out of the backfield. It’s a dream matchup for a dual threat like Montgomery, as the Falcons allow a league-worst 68.0 receiving yards per game to running backs. If he has another big week, Montgomery’s price could soar for Week 9, so he’s worth locking in at this price while you can.
8. Since 1960, a receiver has reached 69+ targets in Weeks 1-7 of an NFL season on 75 different occasions. DeAndre Hopkins ranks 74th in yardage among those receivers with 390 yards this year. Only Vincent Brisby of the 1995 New England Patriots had fewer yards (381) on 69+ targets. Hopkins’s 5.65 yards per target ranks 73rd on that list, as well, ahead of Brisby (5.37) and Randy Moss in 2002 (5.25). His Week 8 matchup against Detroit (ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA) is just about as good as it gets, though, and if Brock Osweiler can be a reasonable facsimile of an NFL quarterback, this could be the breakout game DFS players have been waiting for all year.
9. After Tevin Coleman left last week’s game against the Chargers with a hamstring injury, Devonta Freeman picked up the slack, playing more than 60 percent of Atlanta’s snaps for the first time this season. Dating back to 2015, he has 12 games where he’s exceeded 60 percent of his team’s snaps. In those games, he’s averaged 117.8 total yards and 0.83 TDs. He’s in a difficult matchup in Week 8, taking on a Packers team that ranks second in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA, but if his workload is anything like last year’s (when he had 10 games of 20+ touches), it won’t be difficult for Freeman to reach or exceed value in Week 8.
10. Jimmy Graham has eight or more targets in four straight games. If Russell Wilson targets Graham eight or more times against his former team in Week 8, he’ll become the second tight end (joining Greg Olsen) since 2015 to post five consecutive games of eight or more targets. Plus, #revenge!
“10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to @Neil0220 for correctly getting not just one, but BOTH of last week’s trivia answers (Jimmy Smith and Andre Johnson). Send me a DM on RotoGrinders or at Twitter, and we’ll get those cards shipped out to you.
On to the Week 8 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize. One new stip: if you’ve won before, don’t leave any guesses (there are plenty of decks of RG playing cards to go around!). On to the question!
In Note #1 above, I mentioned that David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, and Priest Holmes were the only players in the 2000s to record 111+ yards from scrimmage in each of the first seven weeks of a season. Who was the last player before them to record 111+ yards from scrimmage in Weeks 1-7 of a season?
Thanks for reading, and good luck this week, guys!