10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes: Thanksgiving Day
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for the three-game Thanksgiving day slate.
1. A running back has caught nine passes in a game on five different occasions in 2016; three of those games belong to Le’Veon Bell. If you’re reading an article at RotoGrinders.com, you probably don’t need any fancy advanced stats to tell you that Bell is is the premiere play on Thanksgiving day. But the matchup is even better than you might think. Not only does Indianapolis rank 31st in rush defense DVOA; they also rank dead last in receiving DVOA against running backs. The Steelers should get out to a big lead (they’re now nine-point favors with Andrew Luck on concussion protocol), and Bell simply doesn’t leave the field: over the past four games, he’s played 271 snaps, while all other Pittsburgh backs have combined for nine.
2. Ezekiel Elliott has 90 or more rushing yards in eight consecutive games, something no rookie running back has ever done. This year, no other player this season has 90+ rushing yards in more than three straight games. His opponent on Thanksgiving day, the Washington Redskins are one of the only two teams that have been able to hold Elliott below 90 yards this season, but that seems almost certain to change in Week 12. There’s always a case to fade a player in tournaments (although less so on a three-game slate), but in cash games, it feels like the Bell/Elliott combo is almost mandatory.
3. The Dallas Cowboys have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season; they’re one of four teams (the Giants, Patriots, and Chargers being the others) that can make that claim. It’s mostly a volume thing for the Cowboys, as they’re the only team in the NFL to limit opposing teams to below 20 carries per game (19.9). In fact, they’re the only team in the NFL to limit opposing teams under 22 carries per game. Given that Rob Kelley’s three-touchdown career game on Sunday night hasn’t been factored into his price tag, he has to be considered, especially on a three-game slate. But the upside isn’t huge against a Dallas team that leads the NFL in time of possession.
4. Five wide receivers have reached 20+ DraftKings points three times in the past four weeks: Stefon Diggs, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Jamison Crowder, and Julio Jones. Four of them (Diggs, Bryant, Brown, Crowder) play on Thanksgiving day (and all make for excellent plays). Given that the Bell/Elliott pairing is going to be super popular, a few of these receivers could see reduced ownership, making them all interesting tournament options.
5. Only one tight end has 183 targets and 14 touchdowns since 2015, and it’s not Rob Gronkowski, or Greg Olsen. It’s Jordan Reed, despite his having missed four games to injury over the past two years. Dallas ranks 31st against the tight end in DVOA, and for those paying up at RB, it’s going to be difficult to fit Reed in, which makes him an elite tournament play in Week 12.
6. Jamison Crowder’s three-target, three-catch, 102-yard game on Sunday was the first game all year that a receiver with three or fewer targets eclipsed the century mark in yardage. In fact, it’s only happened one other time in the past three years (Ted Ginn caught two of three targets for 120 yards and two TDs on 12-13-2015). While the big plays are encouraging, there is downside to rostering Crowder, who has three games of three or fewer targets this year. Pierre Garcon has yet to receive fewer than five targets in a game this year, and he’s garnered 17 targets in the past week to Crowder’s nine.
Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Stefon Diggs is OUT for Week 12.
7. Only five players have three games of 13+ targets this season. Stefon Diggs is one of them (the others are Evans with five, Nelson, Jones, and Robinson with three each), and each of his three games came in the last week. Last week, Diggs was shadowed by Patrick Peterson; he was (predictably) limited to seven targets, and he (predictably) didn’t do much with the targets he did get, totaling just 37 receiving yards. But Diggs runs 58 percent of his routes from the slot, where Quandre Diggs (Pro Football Focus’s 96th ranked CB, out of 116 qualifiers) has lined up on 99 percent of Minnesota’s snaps. Diggs is an elite option, and at PPR sites, his upside is right there with Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant, as the Vikings take on a Lions team that ranks last in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. It’s worth noting that Stefon Diggs did not practice on Tuesday, but, per RotoWorld, he “seems better than 50/50 to suit up.”
8. Through Week 11, Cole Beasley has 53 catches for 591 yards and five touchdowns. That’s something Dez Bryant has only done one time in his career (in 2014, he had 56-793-8 through Week 11).
9. Matthew Stafford has a 12/2 TD/INT ratio in Thanksgiving day games since 2012, and in those four games, he’s averaged (get ready) 374 passing yards per game. Of course, he put up most of those numbers with Calvin Johnson on his team, the GOAT Thanksgiving Day player (11 TD, 90.3 yards per game in nine career Thanksgiving day games). Given Andrew Luck absence, Ben Roethlisberger history of being pedestrian on the road, and Kirk Cousins drastic home/road splits, Stafford can be considered a contrarian, deep tournament play on Thursday. But if he’s going to have success, he’ll have to attack the middle of the field, as Minnesota ranks third in DVOA to passes thrown to the right side of the defense (where Xavier Rhodes plays 82 percent of the time) and second on passes thrown to the left side (where Terance Newman plays on 69 percent of snaps). Over the middle, the Vikings defense ranks 22nd.
10. Scott Tolzien hasn’t started a game since 2013, when, in his first two career starts (he made three that year, the only three of his career), he threw five interceptions. He was one of the three players in the 2000s to throw five picks in his first two games as a pro, and one of the others has some Thanksgiving day relevance; it’s Matthew Stafford, who also threw five picks in his first two career games in 2009. With Andrew Luck out, Tolzien will be thrown into the mix (where’s Jim Sorgi when you need him?). In other words, fire up that Pittsburgh defense.
10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to draino15, aschaffel, and jeffassassin for getting last week’s trivia question correct! There were some shenanigans with the Play Index (they didn’t have Reggie Bush listed as a RB, and their data only went back to 1999), but great job by those guys in finding the true correct answers (Edgerrin James, Reggie Bush, Gale Sayers). We should be good to go this week.
On to the Week 12 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize: a RotoGrinders t-shirt, sent to your doorstep. On to the question!
In Note #10 above, I mentioned that Scott Tolzien and Matthew Stafford were two of three QBs in the 2000s to throw five interceptions in their first two NFL games. Who was the third?
Thanks for reading, everybody! I’m going to do my best to have another “10 Notes” out for Week 12’s main slate, but with family in from out of town, it may or may not happen. I hope you all enjoy spending some time with family, spending some time with food, and spending some time with football. In no particular order. Best of luck on the Thursday slate!