2020 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Lines and Betting Picks
With Wild Card Weekend behind us, the NFL Division Round awaits. We’ll take an early look at NFL Divisional matchup lines and betting picks at online sports betting sites as eight teams remain in pursuit of Super Bowl 2020. Before we do, let’s recap the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs.
Underdogs and Unders had a heyday in the Wild Card Round, with the former finishing 3-1 against the closing line while the latter went undefeated in a low-scoring weekend. Our own Wild Card betting picks went 2-1-1 (or 3-1 depending on what number you got the Texans at), with the lone loss coming against the Seattle Seahawks, who closed as 1-point underdogs before kickoff.
The two biggest upsets of the weekend came against the New England Patriots (-4.5) and New Orleans Saints (-7.5), two teams who were just one win away from earning No. 2 seeds and waiting patiently in the NFL Divisional Round. Instead, Tom Brady and Drew Brees early departures leaves Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers (more on them in a bit) as the only Super Bowl winning starting quarterbacks remaining in the NFL Playoffs. Per ESPN Stats & Info, that’s the fewest entering the Divisional Round since 2010.
Also read Three Ways to Bet on Super Bowl 2020 without Betting on the Super Bowl
The Vikings’ win shakes up the NFL playoffs more so than the Titans’. The Saints were +260 to win the NFC Championship and +600 to win the Super Bowl before the Wild Card Round kicked off, giving the Seahawks and Packers an easier Divisional Round matchup.
Let’s dive into all four Divisional Round lines and betting picks at three legal US sportsbooks.
NFL Divisional Round Lines and Betting Picks
As always, be sure to use our NFL odds tool to shop lines for your NFL betting picks.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers -7, O/U 45
Will the Vikings’ momentum carry them through the Divisional Round? Unlikely, but they did open as smaller underdogs than they were against the Saints.
In their shocking win against the Saints, Dalvin Cook looked healthy turning 28 carries into 94 yards and two touchdowns. Kirk Cousins protected the ball and was clutch when it counted, connecting with wide receiver Adam Theilen on a huge 43-yard pass in overtime to set up tight end Kyle Rudolph ‘s game-winning touchdown.
Theilen had a rough start, fumbling on the Vikings’ first possession. Luckily Minnesota’s defense stepped up to hold the Saints to a field goal much like they did throughout the game, and Thielen bounced back to have one of his best performances of the season — 129 yards on seven receptions. Most impressive was the Saints defense holding Brees to 208 yards while causing two turnovers and holding Michael Thomas to only his fourth sub-75 yard game of the season, all while missing two players in the secondary.
I like the Under trend to continue in this Saturday game. The 49ers are 29th in terms of pace of play and the Vikings will lean on their workhorse running back, setting up another low-scoring affair
Divisional Round Betting Picks: Under 45
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens -8.5, O/U 47
Derrick Henry ran through the New England Patriots defense for 182 yards on 34 carries as the Tennessee Titans sprinted to their eighth win with Ryan Tannehill beneath Center. In total, the Titans are 8-3 since Tannehill took over quarterback duties for Marcus Mariota in Week 7. Against the Patriots, Tannehill’s arm was only needed for 72 yards thanks to the league’s rushing leader.
The lack of passing might scare you away from playing Tannehill and A.J. Brown in DFS against the Ravens’ fourth-ranked DVOA against the pass, but the Titans are expected to be playing catch-up against the Super Bowl favorites. Baltimore’s DVOA is only 19th against the run, but the Titans may not be able to lean on Henry for 34 carries if the Ravens pour on points like they have throughout the season.
I backed the Titans against the Patriots, but I can’t do the same against the Ravens. They’ll take advantage of extra rest against a tired Derrick Henry. Tannehill has the highest passer rating in the NFL, but I expect the Ravens defense to trip him up in only his second career playoff start.
The Ravens are -8.5 at DraftKings as of Tuesday morning.
Divisional Round Betting Picks: Ravens -8.5
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs -9.5, O/U 50.5
This line opened at -8 but was quickly bet up to -9.5 and -10 at some legal US sportsbooks. Bettors aren’t buying the Texans who barely squeaked out a Wild Card victory against the Buffalo Bills.
The Kansas City Chiefs are fresh off a bye week and ready to avenge their Week 6 24-31 loss to Deshaun Watson and the Texans. In that game, Kansas City jumped out to a 17-3 lead in the first quarter before Patrick Mahomes re-injured his ankle. Mahomes didn’t exit the game but he was clearly hindered as the Chiefs offense only scored one more touchdown through the next three quarters.
I like this line a lot more before it was flirting with double digits, but Kansas City’s defense is much improved since the last time the two teams met. On top of a defense trending up (at least relatively speaking), Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are as healthy as they’ve been all season. The duo, along with Travis Kelce, will have their way with Houston’s 21st-ranked DVOA versus the pass while the defense forth a better effort than they did in Week 6.
If you’re worried about Will Fuller, keep an eye on the Divisional Round injury report leading up to Sunday. As of now, the Texans expect Fuller to play but the wideout still has a few stages to pass before being cleared by the medical staff.
Divisional Round Betting Picks: Chiefs -9.5
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers -4, O/U 46
The Seattle Seahawks have been historically lucky this season. First, they won 11 games with only a +7 point differential. Four of those games were won by four points or less, not to mention two overtime wins. Their luck continued in the first round of the playoffs, just when I thought it was going to run out. If it wasn’t for Carson Wentz being injured, we would very likely be talking about the Philadelphia Eagles right now. Instead, Aaron Rodgers gets a rematch with the team that kept him from reaching his second Super Bowl in 2014.
The same coach is on the other side of the ball, but it’s a new coach in Green Bay. For some reason the Seahawks have been reluctant to pass the ball despite having arguably the NFC’s best quarterback. You might think running the ball at the sixth-highest clip in the league will be a good thing in a matchup against the Packers’ 23-ranked run DVOA, but as their Wild Card game showed, their running ability has been handicapped due to season-ending injuries to running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. Against the Eagles, the Seahawks rushed for 19 yards on 17 plays between Travis Homer and newly-acquired Marshawn Lynch.
As for the Packers, expect first-year head coach Matt LaFleur to rely on Aaron Jones against the Seahawks 26th-ranked run DVOA. Gone are the days that the Packers have the best quarterback in every matchup, but Green Bay does have a healthier team, a better defense, and the best running back in what could be a slow game. If Seahawks win this, it will be on the back of Russell Wilson (per usual), but Wilson will have far more trouble passing the ball against the Packers (10th-ranked DVOA vs the pass) than the Eagles.
Under 46 is my favorite bet on the board, and I lean towards the Packers covering.
Divisional Round Betting Picks: Under 46; Packers -4
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