2023 Boston Red Sox Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections
Nick Galaida is here to break down the Boston Red Sox’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.
In 2022, the Boston Red Sox finished in last place in the American League East division for the second time in the last three years. It was their first losing season with Alex Cora in the dugout as the team’s manager.
This past winter, Boston lost Xander Bogaerts, who was the organization’s most valuable player each of the last two seasons. They did not find a replacement for him, but they did sign Rafael Devers to an extension to delay a fanbase mutiny for at least one more year.
Kenley Jansen was signed to bolser the bullpen and Masataka Yoshida brings a level of discipline and maturity to an otherwise volatile lineup. Still, it remains to be seen what the net effect of these roster changes will be this summer.
Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 78.5 Wins (-115), FanDuel
- Division Winner: (+2000), PointsBet
- To Make the Postseason: (-330), DraftKings
- American League Winner: (+3500), Caesars
- World Series Champion: (+7000), Caesars
Starting Lineup
Catcher, Reese McGuire
There are few teams in baseball that have less talent at the catcher position than the Red Sox heading into 2023. Reese McGuire used a .332 BABIP to support a still-unimpressive .269 batting average last year in 89 games played and seems highly likely to regress below .250 this summer.
Defensively, McGuire ranked 21st in pop time out of 43 catchers who had at least 20 attempts to second base in 2022. His framing leaves much to be desired as well, judging by his 40th percentile rank on Baseball Savant.
First Base, Triston Casas
- Rookie of the Year Odds: +1200
The media has focused extensively on Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Volpe, Masataka Yoshida, and Grayson Rodriguez during spring training, but the best rookie in the big leagues this summer might be Triston Casas.
Casas played in only 27 games for the Red Sox in 2022, but his elite approach at the plate was on full display in his first taste of MLB action. His 20.0% walk rate would have been good enough for second-best in baseball, only behind Juan Soto. Casas swung at only 21.0% of pitches that he saw outside of the strike zone, which was also only slightly worse than Soto, who led all qualified hitters.
His 56.6% ground ball rate would have been alarmingly-high if not for the fact that he has not hit more than 36.4% of his balls on the ground since he was in Double-A. This is likely a correctable fix over the course of a full season. His contact rates were lower than would be ideal, but he was only 22 years old last fall during his first month with the Red Sox – there is plenty of time for improvement in those metrics.
Assuming Casas stays healthy, it would be surprising if he was not firmly entrenched in the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year by the end of September. The biggest red flag is how he will fare against southpaws – an area of weakness for him during his minor league career.
Second Base, Christian Arroyo
Christian Arroyo was a first-round draft pick in 2013, which is likely the only reason that he continues to get first dibs on starting roles for teams in need of help in the middle infield. In 229 career games, he owns a .255 batting average, .736 OPS, and a 5.6% walk rate. He has never been particularly impressive with his glove either.
Among 277 players with at least 300 plate appearances last year, Arroyo ranked 260th in O-Swing%, which is a measure of plate discipline. His ground ball rate ranked 183rd, his barrel percentage ranked 172nd, and his average exit velocity ranked 138th.
Simply, Arroyo is best suited for a role as a utility infielder who can make his way into the lineup each time there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. As an everyday starter, he is underwhelming, to say the least.
Third Base, Rafael Devers
- MVP Odds: +3000
- PrizePicks Projection: 32.5 Home Runs
This past off-season, Rafael Devers agreed to a 10-year, $313.5 million contract with the Red Sox, which will keep him from being a free agent until 2034. Based solely on his bat, Devers is worth the money. He finished 2022 ranked in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, 96th percentile in HardHit%, and 92nd percentile in xwOBA.
Still, his 140 wRC+ was only 21st among players who had at least 300 plate appearances. Devers also had significant platoon splits, with a .739 OPS against left-handed pitching compared to a .931 OPS against right-handed pitching. Factor in poor plate discipline and some of the worst third base defense in baseball – the contract becomes slightly less appealing.
Devers is an impact bat that all 30 teams would love to insert into their lineup on a daily basis. Yet, his flaws are hard to ignore, especially the longer they persist into his career. He has little chance of winning an MVP in 2023, and it is debatable whether or not he ever will seriously contend for individual hardware.
Shortstop, Kike Hernandez
Following an impressive 2021 Boston debut, Kike Hernandez regressed across the board in 2022, playing in only 93 games. He posted a .222 batting average, .629 OPS, and saw nearly all of his power metrics decline by significant margins compared to the prior year. On top of all of that, his ground ball rate undesirably increased by 6.9%.
Boston brought Hernandez back for the 2023 campaign on a one-year, $10 million, but it was unlikely that the deal made anyone in the front office truly excited for the upcoming summer. Hernandez is one of the least productive bats in the league against right-handed pitching, making him a better fit as a utility on a contending team.
Expectations should be low here.
Outfield, Masataka Yoshida
- Rookie of the Year Odds: +600
In the World Baseball Classic, Masataka Yoshida finished 15th out of 230 international players in OPS. He batted .409, hitting a pair of home runs, and driving in 13 runs. He walked four times and struck out once in 22 at-bats.
Yoshida’s impressive plate discipline was one of his best features when playing in Japan. In 781 career games, he had a 13.1% walk rate compared to a 9.4% strikeout percentage. Following his rookie campaign in the NPB, he never had lower than a .306 batting average or a .403 on-base percentage.
The only red flag in his profile is his glove, with Baseball Prospectus referring to him as “not an inspiring defender.” Fortunately, left field at Fenway Park is not the most difficult position in the big leagues. If he can hit, Chaim Bloom will be more than happy with his return on investment.
At +600, he is likely “(player-popup #triston-casas)Triston Casas”:/players/triston-casas-3772857’ toughest competition for Rookie of the Year honors in the American League.
Outfield, Adam Duvall
Adam Duvall had a .213 batting average and a 32.1% strikeout rate in 86 games played for the Atlanta Braves in 2022. Still, he had an .844 OPS against left-handed pitching and played excellent outfield defense. It goes without saying that his production will be underwhelming when he is in the lineup against right-handed pitching, against which he had a .206 batting average and a .620 OPS last year.
At $7 million, Boston could have done worse in their search for outfield depth. Hopefully, he does not have to be an everyday option for manager Alex Cora.
Outfield, Alex Verdugo
A former second-round draft pick, Alex Verdugo has been underwhelming since debuting for the Red Sox in 2020. Across 351 games played, he owns a .288 batting average and a .768 OPS – far from elite numbers, but especially difficult to celebrate when factoring in his dreadful baserunning and poor defensive metrics.
In 2022, Verdugo was once again worse than the league average against southpaws, with a .266 batting average and a .693 OPS. He offers little upside in any facet of the game. Still only 26 years old, theoretically he can still improve. There has simply been no evidence to support any upward trajectory in his career arc.
Designated Hitter, Justin Turner
Following nine seasons with the Los Angele Dodgers, Justin Turner inked a two-year deal with the Red Sox to assume their designated hitter role for 2023, with a player option for 2024. Turner hit .278 last season in 128 games played for the Dodgers, but his 13 home runs were his lowest output in a full campaign since 2014.
Compared to 2021, he regressed in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage, whiff%, and chase rate. He also made contact on far fewer pitches in the strike zone in 2022 than he did the year before.
Fenway Park is a paradise for right-handed hitters who can hit doubles, so Turner’s floor is still a roughly league-average hitter. The ceiling is simply much lower than it used to be.
Pitching Staff
Starting Pitcher:
Starting Pitcher, Corey Kluber
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
Since Corey Kluber left Cleveland, he owns a 4.15 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and a 1.25 WHIP. In 2023, he will be pitching for his fifth different team in the last five seasons. Last year, he was modestly effective for the Tampa Bay Rays, throwing more than 80 innings for the first time since 2018.
His command remains elite, which propelled him to the 99th percentile in walk rate and chase rate, despite the fact that none of his offerings average even 90 mph anymore. Kluber also finished in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and the 75th percentile in HardHit%, generating enough weak contact to keep the damage done against him to a minimum.
Nonetheless, like much of the rest of Boston’s roster, he is better suited for a complementary role on a better team rather than being tasked to headline a rotation. His presence as the Opening Day starter for the Red Sox is an indication of how little talent this pitching staff has heading into the new year.
Starting Pitcher, Chris Sale
- Cy Young Odds: +8000
- PrizePicks Projection: 3.48 ERA
Similar to Kluber, Chris Sale has had trouble staying healthy in recent seasons. Since 2017, Sale has not thrown more than 158.1 innings in a single season, and he has thrown only 48.1 innings combined across the last two years.
Consequently, it is hard to know exactly what to expect from Sale in 2023, considering that we have not seen him healthy for a prolonged duration of time in so long. If there is anything encouraging to note, it is that he averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball last summer, which is in line with his pre-Tommy John velocity. His slider also looked nearly identical to 2018 in terms of horizontal sweep.
If Sale is healthy, he is a good bet to give Boston a chance to win games. The difficult part is it is nearly impossible to imagine him approaching 200 innings in his age-34 campaign.
Starting Pitcher, Nick Pivetta
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
In two seasons since joining the Red Sox, Nick Pivetta owns a 4.54 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and a 1.34 WHIP in 334.2 innings. Last year, he continued to prove himself completely incapable of getting outs consistently against left-handed pitching, with a 5.21 FIP and a 1.53 WHIP. Facing lefties, he primarily relies on a fastball and a curveball, neither of which generates swings and misses at a high rate, and neither of which does a good job limiting hard contact.
Overall, Pivetta finished 2022 ranked in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity and fifth percentile in HardHit%. He was significantly worse than league average in barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk rate as well.
Pivetta will eat innings, but he is has minimal upside at this point in his career.
Starting Pitcher, Garrett Whitlock
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
According to Chris Cotillo, Garrett Whitlock is schedule to start on Opening Day in Triple-A as part of his rehab assignment before joining the big league club. From that point, he will make one more start in the minors before potentially rejoining the Red Sox against the Tampa Bay Rays in mid-April.
Whitlock will be a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time in his career. In limited exposure last year, he had a 3.60 FIP and a 1.26 WHIP in Boston’s rotation. Most notably, he finally seemed to solve his platoon issues against left-handed batters – an issue that has plagued him during recent seasons. Still, he allows an abundance of hard contact and a .221 BABIP against lefties could have proven to be a false positive in terms of fixing his platoon numbers.
Whitlock will need to locate his sinker better if he wants to find success across 30 starts. Do not let expectations get too high here before seeing the early returns this April and May.
Starting Pitcher, Brayan Bello
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
There is a legitimate opportunity for Brayan Bello to establish himself as the ace of this pitching staff by the end of this summer in Boston. Though his rookie campaign got off to a very rough beginning, he turned things around in September – posting a 2.59 ERA and a 2.70 FIP across his final six turns through the rotation.
His success was primarily driven by an increase in slider usage late in the year. His changeup seemed to play better down the stretch as well, with an elite 50.0% whiff rate against left-handed hitters in September. Command is an ongoing issue for Bello, but a correctable problem for someone who is still only 23 years old.
He could be in for big things for the Red Sox in 2023.
Bullpen:
Relief Pitcher, Kenley Jansen
In 2022, Kenley Jansen increase his cutter usage back over 60 percent, following three consecutive years of declining emphasis. The pitch was as good as it ever has been, holding opposing hitters to a .157 batting average and a .262 slugging percentage.
This past winter, he signed a two-year, $32 million deal with the Red Sox to continue his career on the east coast. He is the most reliable high-leverage option that Boston has had in their bullpen in multiple seasons.
Relief Pitcher, Chris Martin
Chris Martin was unheralded as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball last season, with a 3.05 ERA, 2.55 xERA, and a 2.18 FIP. He posted a remarkable 32.9% strikeout percentage and a miniscule 2.2% walk rate while allowing less than a baserunner per inning pitched.
A drastic increase in cutter usage against left-handed batters helped him solve his platoon issues from 2021. Everything about his pitch-mix alterations appears sustainable heading into 2023 and beyond. He still allows far too much hard contact to be completely comfortable when he is pitching in high-leverage situations, but he is nonetheless a quality option for manager Alex Cora in the eighth inning.
Relief Pitcher, John Schreiber
John Schreiber turned in an excellent 2022 campaign, with a 2.22 ERA, 2.57 xERA, and a 2.50 FIP across 65.0 innings of work. He was far more effective against right-handed batters than he was against lefties, making him better suited for the seventh inning than the ninth inning, but his 89th percentile whiff% and 78th percentile average exit velocity make him a reliable member of this unit heading into the new season.
Relief Pitcher, Josh Winckowski
Josh Winckowski was ineffective as a rookie last season, posting a 5.89 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and a 4.95 FIP across 70.1 innings of work. He struggled against both right- and left-handed hitters, walking too many batters, allowing too much hard contact, and rarely missing bats with any of his offerings.
He is likely to settle into a middle relief role for this arm barn in 2023.
Relief Pitcher, Zack Kelly
Zack Kelly had a 3.95 ERA, 2.76 xERA, and a 4.28 FIP in 13.2 innings last year as a rookie. He earned a promotion after posting a strong 2.72 ERA and a 2.82 FIP in 49.2 innings at Triple-A earlier in the year.
He has the tools to be an effective bullpen member, but youth and a lack of proven success will keep him in low-leverage situations for the time being.
Boston Red Sox – Futures Pick & Prediction
The Red Sox are notably weak at multiple positions entering Opening Day, including catcher, second base, shortstop, and at least one outfield position. They also have the worst starting rotation in the American League East – a division replete with offensive juggernauts.
If this team overperforms expectations, it is likely to be a result of managerial prowess, with Alex Cora’s fingerprints being enough to add a few wins to their end of season total. Still, the lack of reliable starting pitcher and the major question marks defensively make this an easy lean towards the under on their 2023 win total. Boston projects to finish in last place in their division for the third time in the last four years.
PICK: Under 78.5 wins (-105, DraftKings)
2023 Boston Red Sox DFS Pick’em
- PrizePicks Projection: Rafael Devers less than 32.5 Home Runs
- PrizePicks Projection: Chris Sale less than 3.48 ERA