$500K Mid-Summer Classic Strategy: Pitchers
You may have heard there’s a pretty big tournament going on Friday night at DraftKings. $125,000 going to first place and $500K in total prizes being awarded. There’s still time to buy-in if you choose to go that route, but all of the qualifiers have finished. Now we wait until Friday for MLB to return. To hold you over, we’re going to break down as much as possible about Friday’s games to give you an edge in the MSC.
Join the DraftKings $500,000 MidSummer Classic with the $125,000 first place prize here
Friday’s Pitching Probables
Here are the most likely pitchers for Friday night. These could easily change and there are a few unconfirmed but for now, here’s what we’re looking at:
| PITCHER | TM | OPP | SALARY | FPPG | $/PT | ERA | K/9 | AvgIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Nolasco | LAD | WAS | $7,700 | 15.18 | $507.31 | 3.76 | 7.17 | 6.21 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | LAD | $10,100 | 18.40 | $549.00 | 2.99 | 9.06 | 6.01 |
| David Price | TBR | TOR | $9,400 | 16.75 | $561.19 | 3.94 | 7.54 | 6.67 |
| Esmil Rogers | TOR | TBR | $5,000 | 4.81 | $1,039.93 | 3.64 | 6.15 | 8.90 |
| Andy Pettitte | NYY | BOS | $7,800 | 13.24 | $589.08 | 4.39 | 6.50 | 6.13 |
| Felix Doubront | BOS | NYY | $7,500 | 15.35 | $488.60 | 3.91 | 8.45 | 6.19 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | CIN | $9,100 | 23.53 | $386.69 | 2.00 | 9.39 | 6.35 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | PIT | $7,200 | 15.03 | $478.91 | 2.69 | 5.46 | 6.50 |
| Kyle Kendrick | PHI | NYM | $8,100 | 12.89 | $628.59 | 3.75 | 5.34 | 6.54 |
| Jeremy Hefner | NYM | PHI | $7,200 | 14.01 | $513.88 | 3.33 | 6.83 | 6.00 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | TEX | $8,000 | 14.21 | $563.14 | 2.82 | 5.13 | 6.01 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | BAL | $8,500 | 19.92 | $426.62 | 3.08 | 8.67 | 6.59 |
| Tim Hudson | ATL | CHW | $7,600 | 13.75 | $552.93 | 4.02 | 6.34 | 6.11 |
| TBA – White Sox | CHW | ATL | ||||||
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | KCR | $9,600 | 22.40 | $428.57 | 2.93 | 10.86 | 6.13 |
| Ervin Santana | KCR | DET | $8,200 | 15.84 | $517.74 | 3.37 | 7.17 | 6.83 |
| Jacob Turner | MIA | MIL | $9,100 | 17.75 | $512.68 | 2.33 | 5.83 | 6.75 |
| Kyle Lohse | MIL | MIA | $9,800 | 12.36 | $793.20 | 3.67 | 5.54 | 6.06 |
| Scott Kazmir | CLE | MIN | $7,300 | 12.56 | $581.26 | 4.60 | 8.37 | 5.38 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | CLE | $5,600 | 7.00 | $800.00 | 5.55 | 4.90 | 5.14 |
| Joe Saunders | SEA | HOU | $7,900 | 10.59 | $745.99 | 4.24 | 4.79 | 6.01 |
| Bud Norris | HOU | SEA | $7,200 | 13.30 | $541.35 | 3.63 | 6.39 | 6.00 |
| Jason Marquis | SDP | STL | $6,800 | 11.78 | $577.35 | 3.77 | 5.77 | 5.90 |
| Jake Westbrook | STL | SDP | $7,100 | 10.74 | $661.39 | 2.88 | 3.48 | 6.25 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHC | COL | $9,500 | 18.37 | $517.20 | 4.06 | 9.29 | 6.53 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | COL | CHC | $7,700 | 14.04 | $548.35 | 3.21 | 6.09 | 5.74 |
| Ian Kennedy | ARI | SFG | $7,700 | 11.07 | $695.32 | 5.42 | 7.58 | 6.00 |
| Chad Gaudin | SFG | ARI | $5,000 | 7.82 | $639.63 | 2.39 | 7.73 | 10.67 |
| TBA – Oakland | OAK | LAA | ||||||
| Jered Weaver | LAA | OAK | $8,700 | 14.23 | $611.30 | 3.63 | 6.72 | 6.09 |
Shown below are some pitchers in the upper and middle tiers along with Ceiling and Floor Estimates. I wouldn’t look too hard into these numbers but they’re my general guess-timates of the highest potential a pitcher has along with their lowest potential output. They are also not in any particular order beyond the pricing.
When picking your lineups for an event of this size, you have to consider the ceiling of pitchers. Certain guys may have a good matchup but if they can’t strike guys out and maintain a low WHIP, they won’t be substantial enough to win you $125,000 with DK’s scoring.
Pitchers Above $9000
1) Jacob Turner – $9100 – The higher price tag could scare you off here but the numbers speak for themselves this season with Turner. He has a 34, 21 and 6 fantasy point game over his last 3 and could have the type of upside and variance that would win a 2,000 player event.
Ceiling Estimate: 28 fantasy points
Floor Estimate: 0 fantasy points
2) Francisco Liriano – $9100 – Liriano is an interesting play. His upside might be the highest of any pitcher and his risk has been relatively low this season. But the Reds are MUCH better at home and that could spell trouble for Francisco.
Ceiling Estimate: 40 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 14 fantasy points.
3) David Price – $9400 – Another guy who will be highly owned is Price against Toronto. Despite Toronto’s high number of right handed bats, Price is still the reigning Cy Young Winner and will look to start the 2nd half of the season better than he did the first. I see him posting probably the 2nd highest score of the night for pitchers.
Ceiling Estimate: 35 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 20 fantasy points.
4) Jeff Samardzija – $9500 – He could be the ultimate contrarian play in Coors, if not for his high price tag. If you have one lineup, he’s an absolute avoid. But if you have multiple entries then Samardzija is a solid variance play. He has been better on the road than at home (23.8 FPPG on road vs. 13.8 at home).
Ceiling Estimate: 37 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 5 fantasy points.
5) Anibal Sanchez – $9600 – Sanchez gets the nod as my favorite pitching option of the evening. Facing a Kansas City team that has had ups and downs all season, Sanchez has arguably the most K potential of any pitcher on the grid. At under $10K, he won’t break the bank and will eat up innings while maintaining a pretty low WHIP.
Ceiling Estimate: 40 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 15 fantasy points.
6) Kyle Lohse – $9800 – I’m a little confused how Lohse can be this high when he is nowhere near the caliber as the other guys at this level but the matchup with the Marlins is definitely enticing. The drawback is the hitters ballpark he pitches in and the fact that the Marlins aren’t the same pushover lineup that we became used to earlier in the year.
Ceiling Estimate: 25 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 10 fantasy points.
7) Stephen Strasburg – $10100 – Posting a -11 in his last start against the Marlins isn’t exactly breathing confidence into a lot of people heading into Friday night. The bonus for Strasburg is the home splits he’s posted all season. He’s averaging nearly twice as many fantasy points in Washington than he has on the road and has 17 more strikeouts in the same number of games started.
Ceiling Estimate: 45 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 15 fantasy points.
Pitchers $7000 to $9000
Going to cut back to include just guys I see as viable options from this group forward
1) Felix Doubront – $7500 – Doubront has averaged 22.5 FPPG over his past 2 starts against the Angels and the red-hot Seattle Mariners on the West Coast. Doubront has top notch stuff but struggles to put guys away late in at bats at times. The good news is he is nearly unhittable against left handed bats and the Yankees have almost nothing but lefties. This might be my favorite middle tier SP today.
Ceiling Estimate: 30 fantasy points
Floor Estimate: 10 fantasy points.
2) Joe Saunders – $7900 – Saunders has been really, really good lately. FP outputs of 19, 18 and 25 in his last 3 starts have launched Saunders into the land of above average pitching options and I can safely say I NEVER saw that coming. The Astros are a team that will strike out a ton and Saunders just shut down a much more potent Angels offense BUT, the Stros have had a lot of success at home vs. left handed pitching this season.
Ceiling Estimate: 25 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 5 fantasy points.
3) Scott Kazmir – $7300 – Kazmir was good in his last start and has K potential which is the biggest thing to go after in a huge GPP. The drawbacks are his struggles on the road and the fact that the Twins continue to be one of the lowest strikeout teams in all of baseball .
Ceiling Estimate: 25 fantasy points
Floor Estimate: 10 fantasy points
4) Jered Weaver – $8700 – At $8700 and at home, Weaver is a tough guy not to consider. The A’s can be tough but went into the break struggling a bit and Dream Weaver has been a beast in recent home starts. His last 2 starts he averaged 24.5 FPPG at Angel Stadium.
Ceiling Estimate: 35 fantasy points
Floor Estimate: 15 fantasy points
5) Derek Holland – $8500 – Holland is another guy who will likely strike out a ton of batters. He has 7 in 3 of his last 4 starts and 10 in the other. Arlington is a dangerous place to pitch though, especially against the home run heavy Orioles. This is an avoid for me, but I wouldn’t blame you if you felt differently.
Ceiling Estimate: 35 fantasy points
Floor Estimate: 10 fantasy points
6) Jake Westbrook – $7100 – I don’t feel good about this because his ceiling is so low but the Padres have not been able to hit righties and Westbrook has been a better pitcher at home than on the road. He’s a decent option but I doubt he can carry you to a huge GPP win.
Ceiling Estimate: 20 fantasy points
Floor Estimate: 8 fantasy points
7) Bud Norris – $7200 – This isn’t a play I’d use unless you’re entering a good number of teams but the logic behind him is sound. The Mariners can strike out a ton and if they aren’t double donging then they won’t put too many runs on the board. Norris has been a better pitcher at home too. But the K/9 numbers at home are lower and his ceiling is probably 25 points.
Ceiling Estimate: 25 fantasy points.
Floor Estimate: 0 fantasy points.
We’ll check back in later this week with a look at some of the most stackable teams based on both pricing and their matchups. Enjoy the break Grinders!