Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 19th, 2013

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: July 19th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Nolasco LAD 124.1 3.76 3.82 1.22 45.0% 19.1% 5.4% 0.87 1.23
Strasburg WAS 108.1 2.99 3.43 1.13 55.6% 24.6% 8.4% 0.75 1.58
Price TBR 80.0 3.94 3.42 1.23 50.0% 20.6% 4.3% 1.01 1.47
Rogers TOR 71.2 3.64 4.13 1.34 50.0% 16.2% 7.6% 0.75 1.63
Pettitte NYY 98.1 4.39 4.09 1.37 31.3% 16.7% 6.3% 0.82 1.53
Doubront BOS 99.0 3.91 3.99 1.41 41.2% 21.6% 10.0% 0.73 1.44
Kendrick PHI 124.2 3.75 4.27 1.27 63.2% 14.0% 5.7% 0.87 1.62
Hefner NYM 108.0 3.33 3.98 1.15 61.1% 18.5% 6.3% 1.25 1.25
Liriano PIT 76.2 2.00 3.31 1.19 67.0% 25.3% 8.9% 0.35 2.08
Leake CIN 117.0 2.69 4.11 1.12 61.1% 15.0% 5.5% 0.85 1.67
Chen BAL 54.1 2.82 4.83 1.16 44.4% 14.4% 7.0% 0.50 0.72
Holland TEX 125.2 3.08 3.56 1.28 57.9% 23.1% 7.1% 0.57 1.19
Kazmir CLE 86.0 4.60 3.87 1.37 37.5% 21.7% 8.1% 1.47 1.10
Pelfrey MIN 82.2 5.55 4.83 1.56 12.5% 12.4% 6.6% 0.98 1.13
Sanchez DET 92.0 2.93 2.89 1.17 53.3% 29.4% 7.1% 0.49 1.24
Santana KCR 123.0 3.37 3.64 1.11 50.0% 19.7% 5.4% 1.17 1.48
Saunders SEA 114.2 4.24 4.52 1.40 57.9% 12.4% 6.7% 1.02 1.78
Norris HOU 114.0 3.63 4.41 1.41 47.4% 16.7% 7.4% 0.63 1.05
Turner MIA 54.0 2.33 4.32 1.11 62.5% 16.4% 7.5% 0.17 1.37
Lohse MIL 115.1 3.67 4.25 1.16 36.8% 15.2% 4.1% 1.48 0.98
Hudson ATL 116.1 4.02 3.86 1.19 42.1% 17.2% 6.5% 0.77 1.90
Danks CWS 62.2 4.31 3.78 1.13 30.0% 17.7% 3.2% 1.72 1.15
Marquis SDP 112.1 3.77 5.11 1.50 47.4% 14.7% 13.2% 1.44 1.99
Westbrook STL 75.0 2.88 4.79 1.37 50.0% 9.2% 9.5% 0.36 2.92
Samardzija CHC 124.0 4.06 3.48 1.30 47.4% 24.4% 8.4% 1.02 1.50
De La Rosa COL 109.1 3.21 4.32 1.28 52.6% 16.6% 8.5% 0.49 1.72
Griffin OAK 122.1 3.68 4.15 1.12 42.1% 18.8% 5.6% 1.32 0.67
Weaver LAA 67.0 3.63 4.21 1.22 54.5% 17.9% 5.7% 0.94 0.74
Kennedy ARI 108.0 5.42 4.26 1.40 33.3% 19.1% 8.4% 1.33 0.91
Gaudin SFG 64.0 2.39 3.87 1.14 50.0% 21.1% 8.8% 0.56 1.01


STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

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These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

Jeremy Hefner, NYM (v. PHI) – Hefner’s price is definitely higher than it was at the beginning of the season, but it still isn’t commensurate with the run he’s on over the last two months. In that time he has a 2.14 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 63 innings of work. Only “Jeff Locke(player-profile)”:/players/Jeff_Locke-13167’s 1.60 ERA in that timeframe has been better. Hefner scattered 10 hits over six innings against the Phils back on June 21st, but held them to just two earned with six strikeouts. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned in his last eight.

Mike Leake, CIN (v. PIT) – Leake is actually just behind Hefner in that two-month span with a 2.19 ERA and his 0.88 is markedly better, but he doesn’t have a good strikeout rate (15%), he’s a little worse home (likely because it’s a tougher park) and though he’s facing the Pirates anemic offense, his teammates have to try and figure out Francisco Liriano so Hefner gets a slight edge. Both have been out of nowhere superstars for season-long and daily fantasy players.

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Felix Doubront, BOS (v. NYY) – Do you know who has the AL’s fifth-best ERA since May 16th? Yeah, it’s obvious, but of course it’s Doubront at 2.70. He has 11 straight starts of three or fewer earned runs and in fact apart from back-to-back six earned run outings on May 3rd and 8th he hasn’t allowed more than three earned in any of his other 15 starts. His string of 11 includes a trip to the Bronx where he shut down the Yanks for six strong allowing just one run with six strikeouts. Whether you look at the season-long numbers or simply the last calendar month, the Yanks are 27th in OPS against lefties and the actual number has declined from 649 to 605.

Scott Kazmir, CLE (at MIN) – Kaz has been really good in his last five posting a 2.32 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 31 innings of work including seven innings of one-run ball against the Twins back on June 21st. He has three of his six homer-less outings during the run and it is no doubt fueling the surge. He now has a 14/1 K/BB ratio against the Twins in 13 innings of work. With four outings of seven strikeouts or more (including two against the Twins) and a heightened chance at a win, Kazmir is a great option for those with a little gamble in them looking to save on the mound.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (at KC) – On average he’s the third-most expensive arm of the day, but that’s because he’s been excellent this year and also has a strong matchup in the Royals. He was a little shaky in his final outing before the break allowing four earned in 5.3 IP to the White Sox, but the stuff looked great and he didn’t show any signs of lingering injury concerns. Throw in a nice eight day reprieve and this outing sets up nicely. If you are going to spend top dollar, Sanchez offers more bang-for-your-buck than Price or Liriano and has a much better matchup than Strasburg.

Tim Hudson, ATL (at CWS) – Despite a 4.02 season ERA, Hudson gets a lot of respect across the industry so we can’t even take full advantage of his nice eight start run (2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7+ IP in six of the starts) and a friendly matchup. The White Sox haven’t been a total walkover of late with a 774 OPS v. RHP that puts them seventh in the last month, but a lot of that came in the dismantling of the Tigers and an 18-run doubleheader against Cleveland during which they lost both games. This is still a poor offense.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

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David Price, TB (at TOR) – The industry has adjusted to Price’s huge surge since returning from the disabled list putting him back on the ace level which is where he belongs, but this will be his first real challenge since returning as he amassed his 1.08 ERA in three starts against HOU, CWS, and HOU. I’m not exactly worried about the trip to Toronto, but it isn’t devoid of risk.

Francisco Liriano, PIT (at CIN) – Can you even come up with a make believe short slate of awful pitchers on a Monday or Thursday where you would’ve dreamed that Liriano would be the most expensive guy on the board? And yet on a day where Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Anibal Sanchez, and Jered Weaver are throwing, Liriano is tops at two sites and no worse than top five everywhere else. Of course that kind of love also moves him down a tier because a lot of the value is stripped away.

I think he has shown enough in his 12 starts to where you shouldn’t be petrified of the other shoe dropping – though he will have a bad start at some point, everyone does – and you should be considering if you are going to make that huge investment in pitching. He has a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Cincy with 17 strikeouts and just three walks over 12 innings. They’re eighth in the league in OPS against lefties (718) on the season, but just 21st in the last month with a 664 mark.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS (v. LAD) – Strasburg has been even better than Nolasco this year, but he costs quite a bit more and similar to the Nats lineup, the Dodgers are on a torrid pace of late – in fact even more so than the Nats. Strasburg sputtered a bit against a pair of modest foes in the Padres and Marlins, especially the latter as they trounced him for seven runs in just two innings. Hopefully the break did him some good, but given the price there are just better investments on the board.

Derek Holland, TEX (v. BAL) – Some see Baltimore and run the other way regardless, but the dirty little secret about their offense is that it hasn’t fared well against lefties lately. Though maintaining the 11th spot on the season in OPS totals at 708, they’re down to 605 in the last month – good for 26th. Holland’s ERA is a touch higher at home going from 2.89 on the road to 3.35 in Arlington, but his skills are markedly better with a 24% strikeout rate and 4.3 K/BB ratio (22%, 2.8 on the road). He won’t come cheaply, but he’s also not a bad option especially if you’re looking for someone that many opponents won’t have on their team.

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John Danks, CWS (v. ATL) – Danks is cheaper than Hudson at all but one venue (Joust), he offers a better strikeout rate, and he’s on fire in his last four with a 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 5.0 K/BB ratio, but he gets second billing to Hudson because he’s facing a markedly tougher opponent. The Braves are only league average against lefties, but they are known for the long ball as is the park they will be playing in tonight. I’m a big fan of Danks in the second half, but this isn’t a prime matchup. Usable, but not elite.

Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (at TEX) – Though he has just one start since returning from the DL, his season ERA is 2.82 and so most outlets have him priced at level on par with that extraordinary performance which kept him from being a best buy. Plus a trip to Arlington is no treat even on the heels of seven innings of one run ball against these very Rangers just nine days ago. Chen has a modest 14% strikeout rate and home runs have been a problem in the past – though not so much this year with a very healthy 0.5 HR/9 rate – and Texas is the last place to take a home run issue.

I love him at DraftDay as a secondary option because he’s so cheap and maybe for some of your risk takers at Joust with multiple SuperJoust seats looking for an edge on someone who won’t be heavily used with one of your other entries. The Rangers are 10th on the year in OPS v. LHP at 709, but are at just 20th in the last month with a 676 rate.

Esmil Rogers, TOR (v. TB) – Rogers has been a revelation in the rotation for the Jays posting a 3.27 ERA in eight starts with a healthy 19% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 44 innings. His only truly disastrous start was against the Tigers which is pretty excusable given their lineup. He was fair against the Rays back in June allowing four in six innings thanks to three home runs allowed. Those three long balls add up to 75% of his home runs allowed as a starter so if he can keep the ball in the yard this time around, he sets up for a nice outing. Pulling a win won’t be easy given his counterpart on the mound: David Price, but Rogers is very inexpensive and makes a great secondary start where you won’t be so reliant on a win.

Jered Weaver, LAA (v. OAK) – Weaver has a 2.05 ERA in his last four including matchups against DET, STL, and BOS. Of course it was SEA that did the most damage against him during the run scoring four earned in 5.7 innings. He has a 5.0 K/BB during the run and looks a lot like the ace-level Weaver we’ve grown used to over the years. The A’s present another difficult challenge, but Weaver can handle it. The only real problem with him is that his sub-20% strikeout rate from 2012 has carried over to 2013 and even dropped a percentage point down to 18%.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at NYM) – Kendrick has a 3.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last five, but just 18 strikeouts in 33.7 IP limit his upside. In fact his 14% strikeout rate for the season is well below average and it keeps him from scoring really big unless he goes eight or nine innings – which he has done three different times. The Mets are a great matchup, but Kendrick’s teammates have to try and figure out Jeremy Hefner who is just on fire so it I wouldn’t beg Kendrick’s win probability as particularly high.

Ricky Nolasco, LAD (at WAS) – Nolasco is having a great year and he’s been sharp in his first two outings as a Dodger, but the Nats are back to being a tough opponent and Nolasco isn’t exactly bargain priced so he can’t quite doesn’t get a spot in the best buys.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (v. MIA) – After an ugly May, Lohse has run off a 2.91 ERA in his last nine outings totaling 55.7 innings. He was knocked around in Arizona for three homers in 6.3 innings resulting in five earned, but otherwise he allowed just 13 earned in the other eight starts. The Marlin tax keeps his price high, though. Despite an unspectacular 3.67 season ERA, he’s averaging out as the seventh-highest price.

Chad Gaudin, SF (v. ARI) – Who saw Gaudin putting up a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his six starts this year? Heck, who even saw him starting?! He was really sharp against these Diamondbacks back on June 9th going six innings, allowing two runs, and fanning seven while walking just one and they are in a funk right now with a 655 OPS against righties that is well off their season pace of 715. Gaudin is still dirt cheap at most outlets, but I prefer him as a secondary starter as opposed to being your lone guy at a site like FanDuel or DailyJoust.

USE CAUTION:

Bud Norris, HOU (v. SEA) – A first “half” closing shellacking in St. Louis (7 ER in 5 IP) marred a brilliant run during which he’d posted a 2.85 ERA in 79 innings. Even with the trouncing he still has a 3.43 ERA in his last 84 innings. He has a 3.00 ERA against the Mariners in two starts totaling 12 innings and though they aren’t the walkover that most assume (721 OPS v. RHP sits 13th), he should be able to handle them again. It is worth noting that their 840 OPS v. RHP in the last month is behind only the Detroit Tigers, though. I’m not exactly running away from Norris entirely, but I wouldn’t dive in head-first, either. There are likely several other appealing options at or below his cost.

Jacob Turner, MIA (at MIL) – Turner’s been excellent this year, allowing more than three earned just one (4 ER to STL) and he held his own these Brewers back on June 11th allowing three earned in seven innings with six strikeouts – the second-highest total of his season. His meager 16% strikeout rate makes it tough for him to score big without going deep into the game and pulling a win, the latter of which is never easy with his supporting cast. The 2.33 ERA on the season has kept his price high and that makes it tough to recommend him heavily given how shaky his win probability is in just about every matchup (he’s 3-1 in eight starts).

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A.J. Griffin, OAK (at LAA) – I’m still trying to figure out how the Cubs smashed him for seven earned and then 11 days later he throws eight scoreless against the Red Sox. He has an excellent outing in Anaheim already this year. He threw eight innings and allowing just one run back on April 11th, but a lot has changed since then and the Angels are league’s fourth-best team against righties in OPS and I’m particularly leery of Griffin’s 1.8 HR/9 away from Oakland. Be careful.

Jorge de la Rosa, COL (v. CHC) – The skills are unimpressive (17% K, 9% BB), but the results are strong (3.21 ERA and 1.28 WHIP). He’s basically been the same pitcher home and away with a 3.15 ERA at home and 3.25 on the road. The Cubs are league average in OPS against lefties, but sit fifth in slugging percentage. DLR has been great about mitigating home runs, but his park isn’t always so forgiving. This isn’t the cakewalk matchup it might appear to be on paper.

Ervin Santana, KC (v. DET) – He sputtered into the break with a pounding at the hands of the lowly Yankees, but this ranking is more about the Tigers than anything else. There just isn’t any real upside in taking a pitcher facing them, especially on a full 30-pitcher slate. Looking at the wide view, even with the eight earned against the Yanks, Santana has a 3.42 ERA in his last eight with just three home runs allowed. Take out the start at NYY and he has a 2.83 in 47.7 IP over his last seven. Keep an eye for when the schedule softens again, but it’s best to pass on today’s matchup.

Andy Pettitte, NYY (at BOS) – Despite the fact that his season debut saw him toss eight innings of one run ball against these Red Sox, I still don’t trust him in this spot. That was back on April 4th and despite that domination it hasn’t stopped the Sox from posting the fifth-best OPS against lefties at 723. They’ve been even better of late with a 765 in the last calendar month. Tread very cautiously here, especially because he isn’t likely to be well-supported offensively, either.

Joe Saunders, SEA (at HOU) – He’s been one of the toughest guys to figure out all year. He was unbeatable at home early on, but then gave up six earned in just 1.7 IP against the Pirates in late-June. He was a complete avoid on the road and yet he’s currently in the midst of a five start road stretch during which he’s posted a disgusting 1.26 ERA in 35.7 IP including trips to Texas, Cincinnati, Oakland, and LA. The latter two are favorable pitcher parks, but the A’s and Angels are decidedly unfriendly to pitchers. So why the cautious ranking? His last trip to Houston: 8 ER in 5 IP. Your guess is as good as mine here. He’s all over the map.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at COL) – Samardzija had a similar lull in the summer last year before emerging from it and closing out the season brilliantly. He’s been brutal in his last two and I’m not sure betting on his outing in Coors Field as the end of the slump is the smartest move, especially in a one-day situation. His depressed price is appealing at some outlets, but not enough to pull the trigger. Sit this one out and let him get right.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:


ADVANCED METRICS: July 19th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Nolasco 0.337 4.36 0.283 3.14 0.249 0.706 0.299 3.52 0.255 99.75 62.9%
Strasburg 0.314 3.97 0.278 2.26 0.260 0.709 0.272 3.40 0.214 97.56 62.3%
Price 0.288 4.42 0.329 3.90 0.250 0.696 0.322 3.45 0.272 94.92 68.0%
Rogers 0.342 3.19 0.314 4.41 0.249 0.729 0.303 3.87 0.264 37.13 62.1%
Pettitte 0.243 3.25 0.359 4.89 0.255 0.723 0.314 3.75 0.273 95.31 65.0%
Doubront 0.355 2.86 0.320 4.13 0.235 0.649 0.314 3.63 0.253 101.18 61.3%
Kendrick 0.289 3.60 0.333 3.80 0.234 0.679 0.282 3.89 0.258 98.53 65.1%
Hefner 0.369 4.63 0.248 2.44 0.262 0.716 0.257 4.24 0.233 88.11 63.8%
Liriano 0.165 1.56 0.306 2.17 0.249 0.718 0.293 2.58 0.219 95.50 62.4%
Leake 0.320 2.81 0.265 2.45 0.243 0.697 0.260 3.86 0.237 94.33 64.4%
Chen 0.268 3.00 0.295 2.77 0.251 0.703 0.273 3.52 0.241 92.11 64.5%
Holland 0.310 4.00 0.309 2.86 0.248 0.708 0.324 2.87 0.255 102.95 65.8%
Kazmir 0.256 3.62 0.388 5.12 0.257 0.706 0.305 4.43 0.261 93.69 64.9%
Pelfrey 0.357 4.66 0.380 6.81 0.256 0.746 0.338 4.29 0.311 91.94 60.8%
Sanchez 0.308 3.77 0.262 2.15 0.252 0.681 0.326 2.30 0.232 100.47 65.1%
Santana 0.280 2.61 0.327 4.47 0.287 0.794 0.266 3.89 0.236 100.89 65.6%
Saunders 0.216 2.43 0.392 4.93 0.253 0.712 0.298 4.39 0.279 96.05 59.9%
Norris 0.379 5.11 0.280 2.25 0.247 0.721 0.326 3.55 0.279 95.58 65.1%
Turner 0.249 2.19 0.299 2.60 0.256 0.714 0.267 2.89 0.223 96.00 64.5%
Lohse 0.305 3.93 0.319 3.45 0.234 0.628 0.269 4.46 0.257 90.21 67.0%
Hudson 0.304 4.91 0.291 3.14 0.255 0.702 0.279 3.62 0.244 94.74 65.1%
Danks 0.374 5.60 0.302 3.83 0.238 0.704 0.274 4.64 0.259 94.60 66.1%
Marquis 0.374 4.53 0.323 3.27 0.287 0.768 0.256 5.70 0.244 96.11 57.1%
Westbrook 0.410 3.68 0.264 2.42 0.239 0.675 0.279 4.17 0.258 95.08 60.8%
Samardzija 0.342 4.18 0.316 4.07 0.270 0.771 0.308 3.62 0.246 104.84 63.3%
De La Rosa 0.248 1.31 0.323 3.77 0.234 0.704 0.294 3.52 0.251 92.68 61.2%
Griffin 0.288 3.80 0.310 3.58 0.277 0.778 0.253 4.15 0.231 101.95 65.5%
Weaver 0.341 4.54 0.297 2.48 0.246 0.713 0.294 3.87 0.256 98.64 62.1%
Kennedy 0.371 6.04 0.328 4.89 0.263 0.709 0.298 4.69 0.261 101.56 63.9%
Gaudin 0.326 2.55 0.231 2.35 0.256 0.715 0.258 3.28 0.211 40.88 63.5%


Starting Pitcher Salaries: July 19th, 2013

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.