MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, August 3rd: Part 3

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-08-14 00:52:47

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Houston vs. Minnesota

7:10 PM	Houston – ROAD					Minnesota – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.234	0.672	25.20%	0.52		0.243	0.696	21.10%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.230	0.660	24.80%	0.39		0.253	0.698	21.20%	0.42
SP STATS	Bedard – LHP					Gibson – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.45	4.28	8.30	7.67		1.54	6.21	4.89	6.02
LAST 14 DAYS	0.81	1.59	12.97	12.55		1.27	5.73	5.73	5.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	HOU vs R		HOU BvP			MIN vs L		MIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 9

• Favored Team – MIN -143

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home We saw last night what happens when you auto-plug a starter against HOU. Kyle Gibson is even worse of an option but is still a heavy favorite today. He very well might get the win but since he has yet to throw over a 100 pitches or last more than 6 IP and has a meager K/9 of just 4.86, I am not sure how much benefit you can expect him to gain from this matchup. When you add to that fact that he has a 6.21 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after 6 MLB starts, I think you have an unplayable pitcher no matter how cheap he may be. RG Start-Ability 3

• Away Erik Bedard has been knock around on the road with a 5.79 ERA. Despite posting a really solid monthly ERA Bedard is 0-5 in the month of July. That is all you need to know about him. MIN is batting .255.255 at home, .251 versus left-handers, and .216 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Justin Morneau is 11-29 with 2 HRs versus Bedard. Joe Mauer is 6-19 versus him. Trevor Plouffe is batting .344 versus left-handers. RG Stack Rating 6

• Away Left-handers are batting .329 versus Gibson. Jason Castro, Brett Wallace, Robbie Grossman, and Marc Krauss are your best plays for HOU. RG Stack Rating 5

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Cleveland vs. Miami

7:10 PM	Cleveland – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.258	0.744	21.50%	0.66		0.232	0.623	19.10%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.739	21.90%	0.50		0.234	0.620	18.40%	0.31
SP STATS	McAllister – RHP					Turner – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.39	3.48	6.06	8.86		1.20	2.65	6.20	10.10
LAST 14 DAYS	1.42	3.75	5.25	7.00		1.46	3.63	7.37	8.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CLE vs R		CLE BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5

• Favored Team – CLE -126

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home Jacob Turner and Jose Fernandez have similar home numbers except for in one important category, strikeouts. Fernandez has way more upside and was worth the gamble against this stout CLE offense even though he was the slight dog. I cannot say the same for Turner because I think his upside is capped. He is playable on a multiple pitcher site if his price is super cheap. CLE is batting .258 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .278 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 5

• Away MIA showed last night that their offense is much better than when the season started. Zach McAlister road ERA is a not good 4.36 but many of those starts came in places like BOS and BAL. MIA is a much more friendly environment. He should pitch well today but he has limited a K/9 potential and MIA does not K that much. Plus, I am not sure he gets the win versus Turner so I do not think he is worth his mid-range price because there are better values. MIA is batting .234 at home, .233 versus right-handers, and .237 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Giancario Stanton, Logan Morrison, and Jake Marisnick have all been hot for MIA. RG Stack Rating 3

• Away Ryan Raburn and Michael Bourn have been hot for CLE. Yan Gomes, Michael Brantley, and Jason Kipnis all hit right-handers for a high average. RG Stack Rating 3

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San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay

7:10 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Tampa Bay – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.261	0.705	17.30%	0.52		0.262	0.754	18.30%	0.64
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.261	0.689	17.10%	0.39		0.249	0.732	18.50%	0.49
SP STATS	Lincecum – RHP					Price – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.35	4.61	9.71	10.43		1.10	3.57	7.33	11.34
LAST 14 DAYS	1.57	8.44	10.59	6.10		0.65	2.31	6.62	15.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs L		SFG BvP			TBR vs R		TBR BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – TAM -230

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home David Price is the huge favorite today and catches a SFO team that has been struggling to score runs in July. There is no need for me to tell you that a man removed one year from a Cy Young has GPP winning upside. The only hiccups in this equation are the facts that SFO best hitters bat really well against left-handed pitching and records very few Ks but I am not buying into them today. SFO is a batting .263 at home, .258 versus left-handers, and.243 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away Tim Lincecum could pitch well today and still not get the W against David Price. It is far from a given that he pitches well. TAM is a super tough home team and I think we are far more likely to see him hung for 6 ER in 5 IP than we are to watch him pitch 7 IP with 1 ER and 8 Ks. He has upside but this is far too much of a gamble. TAM is batting .263 at home, .250 versus right-handers, and .250 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 4

Batter Grind Down

• Home TAM gets steady production from up and down the LU which makes everyone playable but no one recommendable. The OU of this game is very low so temper your expectations for a Lincecum meltdown. Although, they could happen at anytime. RG Stack Rating 4

• Away Scutaro, Pence, Posey, Sandavol and Torres all hit lefties at a high average. RG Stack Rating 1

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NY Yankees vs. San Diego

8:40 PM	NY Yankees – ROAD					San Diego – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.683	19.50%	0.53		0.246	0.691	20.60%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.244	0.684	19.20%	0.40		0.243	0.678	20.60%	0.39
SP STATS	Nova – RHP					Ross – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.30	3.41	9.00	10.25		1.24	2.90	7.17	3.96
LAST 14 DAYS	1.36	2.57	7.71	11.00		0.57	0.64	8.36	17.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYY vs R		NYY BvP			SDP vs R		SDP BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7

• Favored Team – NYY -115

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home ARI allowed Tyson Ross to pitched deep into his second start and he responded well. He owns a 1.89 ERA at home catches an ice COLD NYY team. NYY is batting .237 on the road, .242 versus right-handers, and .215 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 7

• Away Ivan Nova is the favorite today but I do not see why. He has a horrible 5.02 ERA and .300 BAA on the road. He has looked fantastic in July but the team he is playing for is struggling to score runs. He should get a boost from this pitcher park but it did not help out CC yesterday. SDG is batting .238 at home, .242 versus right-handers, and .235 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 6

Batter Grind Down

• Home Yonder Alonso is hot for SDG. Everth Cabrera is batting .365 versus right-handed pitching. RG Stack Rating 2

• Away It is very limited at bats but NYY has a .405 BAA versus Ross. It might be time to dust off those NYY lefties stacks for another trip to the park. RG Stack Rating 5

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Toronto vs. LA Angels

9:05 PM	Toronto – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.254	0.732	18.70%	0.64		0.265	0.752	18.20%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.254	0.752	18.90%	0.51		0.274	0.765	17.90%	0.49
SP STATS	Rogers – RHP					Weaver – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.43	4.16	6.12	3.51		1.12	2.84	7.45	10.94
LAST 14 DAYS	1.77	6.35	5.82	5.33		0.80	0.42	9.76	17.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			LAA vs R		LAA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8

• Favored Team – LAA -170

Pitcher Grind Down

• Home In his last 7 starts Jered Weaver has lowered his ERA almost 2 points and it is down to a 2.84 on the year. He is on some kind of roll. He is a 2.02 pitcher at home and faces a very easy opponent on the mound today. TOR is batting .242 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .267 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 9

• Away Esmil Rodgers numbers are quickly going back to his career averages after that hot start. There is no reason to believe that the escalation stops tonight versus this great home team. LAA is batting .280 at home, .276 versus right-handers, and .270 over the last 7 days. RG Start-Ability 2

Batter Grind Down

• Home Rodgers is allowing Left-handers to bat .302 versus him. Josh Hamilton has been hot with 21.25 fp over the last 7 days. He is your best play but everyone from LAA is playable. RG Stack Rating 8

• Away Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, and Colby Rasmus have been hot for TOR. Jose Reyes and Adam Lind are both batting over .300 versus right-handers. Lind is 7-21 with 2 HRs versus Weaver. RG Stack Rating 3

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