MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, July 24th Part 2
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Atlanta vs. NY Mets
| 7:10 PM | Atlanta – ROAD | NY Mets – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.251 | 0.735 | 22.70% | 0.60 | 0.236 | 0.684 | 22.40% | 0.55 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.744 | 22.80% | 0.49 | 0.234 | 0.682 | 22.30% | 0.43 | |
| SP STATS | Hudson – RHP | Hefner – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.21 | 4.08 | 6.28 | 9.06 | 1.22 | 3.93 | 6.95 | 8.15 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.42 | 4.40 | 5.74 | 12.05 | 1.44 | 10.00 | 6.00 | 2.50 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
ATL vs R  | ATL BvP | NYM vs R | NYM BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
- Favored Team – ATL -135
Pitcher Grind Down
NYM – Jeremy Hefner got absolutely crushed in his last start. He gave up 8 earned runs to the Phillies in only 2 innings. His biggest problem is that he can’t get lefties out, they are hitting for a .300 average and a .886 OPS against him. And the Braves have some really good left hand bats on their team. Avoid
ATL – Tim Hudson has had good success against the Mets this season. He is 1-0 with a 2.51 ERA in two starts against them this season and the Mets are a team that really struggles to score runs at home. I think Hudson gives up a couple of runs, but manages to give his team a shot to give him the win. In Play
Batter Grind Down
NYM – Not much to go crazy about with the Mets offense but both Eric Young and David Wright have been hitting the ball well lately. There are better options out there but they are in play.
ATL – Like I said, Hefner really struggles against left handed hitters. Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Brian McCann all look like great plays even though this is a pitcher friendly park.
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Tampa Bay vs. Boston
| 7:10 PM | Tampa Bay – ROAD | Boston – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.262 | 0.754 | 18.30% | 0.64 | 0.276 | 0.792 | 20.70% | 0.70 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.791 | 18.40% | 0.52 | 0.257 | 0.734 | 22.10% | 0.46 | |
| SP STATS | Price – LHP | Doubront – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.22 | 4.03 | 7.45 | 10.46 | 1.39 | 3.76 | 8.39 | 10.39 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.00 | 3.38 | 4.50 | 11.00 | 0.99 | 1.35 | 7.56 | 15.05 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| TBR vs L | TBR BvP | BOS vs L | BOS BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.0
- Favored Team – TB -120
Pitcher Grind Down
BOS – Felix Doubront has really pitched well over his last 5 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of those starts and he has gone 3-0 over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end tonight against the Rays though. They are one of the best hitting teams in the league against lefties. Over/under scares me a bit too. Avoid
TB – David Price has really looked good since coming back from injury, but Fenway is a really tough place to pitch. Price has only managed to last 8 innings in two starts against the Red Sox this season and with so many other Aces on the mound tonight, I don’t think Price should be on your radar. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
BOS – Dustin Pedroia and Mike Napoli are both really good against lefties and the high over/under leads me to believe the Sox will put up a good number of runs tonight.
TB – Doubront has actually given up a higher average and OPS to lefties, but I think bats from both sides of the plate are in play. Evan Longoria has really been good since the All-Star break and should be targeted.
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NY Yankees vs. Texas
| 8:05 PM | NY Yankees – ROAD | Texas – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.244 | 0.683 | 19.50% | 0.54 | 0.261 | 0.738 | 17.30% | 0.59 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.247 | 0.699 | 19.30% | 0.42 | 0.252 | 0.706 | 17.20% | 0.43 | |
| SP STATS | Pettitte – LHP | Garza – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.36 | 4.47 | 6.48 | 9.13 | 1.14 | 3.17 | 7.86 | 12.00 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.33 | 5.25 | 3.75 | 7.00 | 1.29 | 1.98 | 6.82 | 14.10 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| NYY vs R | NYY BvP | TEX vs L | TEX BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 9.0
- Favored Team – TEX -170
Pitcher Grind Down
TEX – Matt Garza makes his first start for the Rangers tonight. He will likely be under a bit more pressure than usual as he will want to start off on the right foot. But a matchup against the Yankees in Arlington isn’t exactly a good one. I think Garza pitches OK, but he will give up some runs. For his price, I would rather have a guy like Strasburg. Avoid
NYY – Andy Pettitte is a few bad starts away from retirement. He has really been pitching bad over the last month or so and this could be a field day for the Rangers. Avoid
Batter Grind Down
TEX – I think all of the Rangers are in play today and I fully expect them to score 6+ runs. Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, and Ian Kinsler should all be at the top of your list tonight as they are all very good against lefties.
NYY – The Yankees have a tough matchup, but they do have a lot of left hand bats to throw at Garza. The three that stick out to me are Cano, Gardner, and Ichiro.
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Detroit vs. Chicago White Sox
| 8:10 PM | Detroit – ROAD | Chicago White Sox – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.280 | 0.781 | 17.40% | 0.65 | 0.250 | 0.687 | 20.30% | 0.53 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.264 | 0.762 | 19.20% | 0.52 | 0.256 | 0.701 | 20.50% | 0.42 | |
| SP STATS | Sanchez – RHP | Danks – LHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.19 | 2.85 | 10.47 | 13.06 | 1.13 | 4.52 | 6.37 | 8.29 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.71 | 3.97 | 7.30 | 7.55 | 1.22 | 5.40 | 5.50 | 6.55 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| DET vs L | DET BvP | CHW vs R | CHW BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
- Favored Team – DET -145
Pitcher Grind Down
CWS – John Danks has been excellent at home this season with a 3.08 ERA and a 0.820 WHIP. We still aren’t sure if Miggy is going to be in the lineup, but the Tigers didn’t skip a beat without him last night by putting up 6 runs. I think if Miggy is out, Danks’ value gets a big bump, but even then, do you really trust an inconsistent pitcher against the Tigers? In Play
DET – Anibal Sanchez is making his fourth start since coming back from injury and he should no longer be under a pitch limit. These White Sox have had their struggles with Detroit’s pitching so far in this series and I think they will struggle once again tonight. Sanchez has a K rate of almost 11 batters per 9 innings which really makes him a huge upside play tonight. Target
Batter Grind Down
CWS – Sanchez is one of the better pitchers in baseball, why waste your salary on a hitter against him?
DET – I think the Tigers are going to find some success against Danks even though he has had good numbers at home. Jhonny Perlata, Torii Hunter, and Prince Fielder have all been good against lefties this season.
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Baltimore vs. Kansas City
| 8:10 PM | Baltimore – ROAD | Kansas City – HOME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM BATTING | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | AVG | OPS | K% | FPAB | |
| SEASON | 0.267 | 0.763 | 18.40% | 0.64 | 0.255 | 0.684 | 17.20% | 0.53 | |
| VS. LEFT/RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.789 | 18.10% | 0.54 | 0.264 | 0.694 | 17.20% | 0.40 | |
| SP STATS | Chen – LHP | Santana – RHP | |||||||
| WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | FPPG | ||
| SEASON | 1.21 | 2.67 | 5.08 | 9.62 | 1.08 | 3.18 | 7.19 | 11.16 | |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 1.22 | 1.35 | 4.81 | 13.05 | 1.32 | 5.84 | 7.44 | 9.05 | |
| BATTER SPLITS | Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window | ||||||||
| BAL vs R | BAL BvP | KCR vs L | KCR BvP | ||||||
What Vegas Says
- Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
- Favored Team – KC -115
Pitcher Grind Down KC – Ervin Santana had been struggling but then came out and had one of his best starts of the year against the Tigers. Santana has been very good pitching at Kauffman Stadium this year but a matchup against the Orioles doesn’t give me too much confidence that he will pitch well. I don’t think he gets lit up, but this Orioles team is tough. Avoid
BAL – Wei-Yin Chen has a very low K rate of only 5 per 9 innings which really limits his upside, especially against the Astros that strike out less than any other team in baseball. Chen is a decent option on multi-pitcher sites, but remember that his upside is very low. In Play
Batter Grind Down
KC – Chen has held lefties to a .197 batting average this season so I would stay away from Gordon, Hosmer, and Lough. He is giving up a .273 average to right hand bats so Billy Butler and Salvador Perez are in play.
BAL – This is a tough one because you have to think the Orioles will score a few runs, but I’m just not sure where the production is going to come from. If you are going to take an Orioles hitter, I would make it a guy like Manny Machado.
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