MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 4th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NOTE: TODAYS BOSTON VS BALTIMORE GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED
Chicago Cubs at Washington
| Chicago Cubs | Washington | ||||||||
| Jason Hammel | Vegas Moneyline | Tanner Roark | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-156) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.806 | 0.357 | 15.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.609 | 0.278 | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.639 | 0.290 | 22.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.533 | 0.243 | 21.6% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP  | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Happy 4th of July Grinders! While you are celebrating with friends and family, be sure to hop in some of the big tournaments across the industry. It will definitely be a 4th of July to remember for a lot of Grinders with some of these big payouts. In the spirit of saving time (yours and mine), I’ll keep the Grind Down brief for the holiday.
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Hammel – Hammel has pitched well this season with a 2.98 ERA and a K/9 of 8.5. His pirce is pretty expensive though considering the fact that he plays on the Cubs and rarely sees much run support. He’s also facing a surging Nationals’ offense who now have one of the best lineups in the National League. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7200 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $9100 DK, $105000 FF, $24600 SS, $14950 FTD
- Tanner Roark – Roark has been a tale of two pitchers this season. At home he is sporting a 1.59 ERA while on the road it jumps all the way up to 4.44. Today Roark faces a Cubs’ offense that is ranked 29th against RH pitching and he gets to face them in the friendly confines of Nationals Park. I like his chances to pick up the win. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6600 FD, $ DS, $14900 DD, $8500 DK, $95000 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Starlin Castro – Castro is a RHB, but he’s had much better success against RH pitching than he has LH pitching. He has a .357 wOBA against righties this season and Roark isn’t a pitcher that you need to necessarily avoid taking hitters against.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rizzo
Washington
Adam LaRoche – Since the start of 2013, Hammel has given up a .357 wOBA to LHB’s. LaRoche meanwhile has been crushing RH pitching to a tune of a .415 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon
Baltimore at Boston NOTE: TODAYS BOSTON VS BALTIMORE GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED
| Baltimore | Boston | ||||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | Vegas Moneyline | Jon Lester | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BOS (-160) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.695 | 0.313 | 18.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 27.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.763 | 0.337 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.701 | 0.315 | 19.7% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Miguel Gonzalez – Even though the Red Sox have struggled mightily this season, Gonzalez is not a recommended fantasy play. He rarely has a big fantasy outing and his average K-rate doesn’t make up for the number of runs that he gives up. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5800 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $6000 DK, $59400 FF, $13000 SS, $11100 FTD
- Jon Lester – Lester has been one of my favorite pitchers to target all season long. He always has a long leash and is usually able to pitch deep into games. He’s also typically cheaper than some of the other top aces in baseball. While the Orioles hit LH pitching well as a team, I think Lester pitches well enough to walk away with a win. Rating = 6
Salaries: $9500 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $9400 DK, $124200 FF, $27300 SS, $17350 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Even though I like Lester, it’s hard to ignore the type of numbers that Jones has put up against LH pitching. He has a .537 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz
Boston
Dustin Pedroia – It’s taken a few months, but Pedroia is finally starting to heat up. He has 12 hits over his last 5 games and looks completely healthy for the first time all season. I like the matchup against Gonzalez who struggles with RHB’s.
Additional Plays: David Ortiz, Brock Holt
NY Yankees at Minnesota
| NY Yankees | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Chase Whitley | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Gibson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIN (-110) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.701 | 0.314 | 17.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.755 | 0.339 | 9.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.446 | 0.222 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.638 | 0.290 | 17.9% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chase Whitley – Whitley is trending in the wrong direction. He’s given up a combined 19 hits and 13 earned runs in his last two starts. His price is really cheap on FD, but he’s a deep GPP play at best today against the Twins. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $NA DS, $9700 DD, $5900 DK, $53800 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Kyle Gibson – Gibson could be worth a look as a GPP play today against the Yankees. In 6 starts at home this season, he has posted a 1.54 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. The Yankees offense is below average against RH pitching and at Gibson’s price, he may be worth a roster spot in a tournament. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5300 FD, $ DS, $11750 DD, $6100 DK, $77800 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Carlos Beltran – Beltran homered again last night and finally appears to be locked in. He draws a nice matchup against Gibson who has given up a .339 wOBA to LHB’s over the last two seasons.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury
Minnesota
Josh Willingham – Whitley has held RHB’s in check for most of the season, but has struggled against batters from both sides of the plate in his last two starts. Willingham has a .374 wOBA against RH pitching and offers nice upside for the price.
Additional Plays: Brian Dozier
Toronto at Oakland
| Toronto | Oakland | ||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | Vegas Moneyline | Tommy Milone | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-135) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.348 | 0.949 | 0.417 | 11.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.289 | 0.793 | 0.345 | 13.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.696 | 0.306 | 26.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.705 | 0.313 | 18.6% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Marcus Stroman – Stroman has really pitched well over his last 6 starts. He’s starting to make some believers out of people and could really accomplish that with a quality outing against the A’s in Oakland. I think he’s worth keeping an eye on moving forward, but can safely be avoided against the swinging A’s. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6400 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $7300 DK, $79100 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tommy Milone – Milone is a decent sized favorite today against the Blue Jays and he has pitched well at home this season with a 3.12 ERA. He’s certainly not the safest option on the board, but at his price, I think you can do worse. Target him on multi-pitcher sites and in GPP’s. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6200 FD, $ DS, $10700 DD, $6500 DK, $86100 FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Bautista has looked good since coming back from his injury and he’s shown no signs of rust. I love the matchup for him as he has a .551 wOBA against LH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Edwin Encarnacion
Oakland
Brandon Moss – The sample size is small, but in his 11 appearances this season, Stroman has given up a .417 wOBA to LHB’s. That bodes well for Moss who has been crushing RH pitching all season.
Additional Plays: John Jaso, Coco Crisp
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
| Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Roberto Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Gerrit Cole | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-174) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.285 | 0.847 | 0.382 | 14.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.668 | 0.304 | 22.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.704 | 0.327 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.664 | 0.303 | 20.3% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez aka Fausto Carmona has been a pitcher that I’ve been avoiding all season long. He’s too inconsistent for my taste in cash games and he doesn’t have enough upside to use as a GPP play. Avoid him against the Pirates. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5300 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $6500 DK, $56600 FF, $13000 SS, $9800 FTD
- Gerrit Cole – Cole is one of my favorite pitchers in the early slate of games. He didn’t pitch great in his first game back from injury, but the Pirates let him throw 93 pitches and he should have a longer leash today. He has a terrific matchup against the Phillies who are ranked 28th against RH pitching this season. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7900 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $9500 DK, $86600 FF, $19700 SS, $15100 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – Utley is really the only Phillies’ bat that peaks my interest today. He has hit RH pitching well and is typically a safe target in cash games.
Additional Plays: None
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – Historically, Hernandez has struggled with LHB’s more than he has with RHB’s, but this season the opposite is true. To be honest, I like batters from both sides of the plate here. I think Cutch will provide some fireworks for the Pirate fans.
Additional Plays: Gregory Polanco, Neil Walker
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
Have a Question for Notorious about Today’s Games? Check out Expert Chat
