Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, July 20th
Inconsistency, inability, and lack of information. This is going to be one difficult and potentially short article. (I really don’t know as this intro is the first thing I’m writing.) You can probably count the pitcher’s you’d consider using under almost any circumstances today on one hand. That’s the inability part, and if that’s not enough, the ones you’re left with are the inconsistent portion. That leaves us with lack of information. Four of today’s 20 starters (20%) haven’t started a game in the last two weeks and only seven have started more than one due to the break, which also leaves us with only three games worth of stats for opposing teams over the last week.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | -3.4 | 3.58 | 6.42 | 2.04 | 1.04 | 3.9 | 4.61 | KAN | 108 | 106 | 119 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 21.7% | 8.6% | 12.0% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 5.1 | 4.24 | 6.02 | 1.41 | 1.05 | 3.81 | 5.19 | SEA | 81 | 91 | 70 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 11.9% | 12.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 3.6 | 3.69 | 5.78 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 3.24 | 3.3 | BOS | 87 | 84 | -8 | 18.8% | 5.6% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% |
| Brandon Beachy | LOS | 4 | 3.95 | 5.67 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 6.56 | ATL | 87 | 92 | 40 | ||||||
| Chris Rusin | COL | 1.5 | 4.44 | 5.51 | 1.81 | 1.4 | 3.44 | 4.65 | TEX | 92 | 78 | 116 | 17.9% | 6.4% | 19.2% | 15.3% | 12.6% |
| Clayton Richard | CHC | 5.6 | 4.25 | 6.1 | 3.67 | 1.02 | 6.11 | CIN | 107 | 98 | 112 | ||||||
| David Buchanan | PHI | -6.2 | 4.48 | 5.66 | 1.61 | 1.01 | 4.64 | 4.21 | TAM | 90 | 90 | 67 | 17.4% | 5.8% | 19.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 5.2 | 4.21 | 5.81 | 1.2 | 1.09 | 4.4 | 4.62 | ARI | 97 | 95 | 108 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 24.1% | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -2.6 | 3.57 | 5.89 | 1.54 | 1.03 | 3.3 | 3.49 | NYM | 74 | 89 | 94 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 19.5% | 11.9% | 8.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -10.7 | 3.65 | 5.78 | 1.04 | 0.84 | 3.56 | 5.27 | SFO | 111 | 113 | 120 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 23.0% | 12.3% | 5.9% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | -3.1 | 4.02 | 5.71 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 4.23 | 5.68 | DET | 112 | 116 | 75 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 22.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.9 | 3.07 | 6.63 | 1.39 | 1.03 | 3.49 | 3.46 | WAS | 90 | 98 | 48 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 10.4% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 8.7 | 4.83 | 5.15 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 5.73 | 5.94 | PHI | 83 | 96 | 99 | 14.5% | 8.4% | 22.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | -3.7 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 0.81 | 0.98 | 4.99 | 3.57 | LOS | 105 | 116 | 116 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 22.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | -0.5 | 5.14 | 5.68 | 1.35 | 1.02 | 4.55 | 4.36 | CHC | 97 | 86 | 76 | 20.5% | 11.5% | 24.5% | 10.7% | 7.4% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.4 | 5.02 | 5.63 | 0.89 | 1.4 | 4.96 | COL | 99 | 99 | 102 | ||||||
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 2.6 | 3.86 | 5.84 | 1.47 | 1.09 | 3.56 | 5.14 | FLA | 88 | 83 | 110 | 17.9% | 6.4% | 19.4% | 14.3% | 6.6% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | -3.1 | 3.92 | 4.83 | 1.32 | 0.91 | 4.27 | ANA | 101 | 102 | 53 | ||||||
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 1 | 3.69 | 6.17 | 2.35 | 0.84 | 4.03 | SDG | 90 | 87 | 123 | ||||||
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 9.8 | 3.9 | 5.85 | 1.58 | 1.04 | 3.61 | 5.03 | PIT | 88 | 93 | 57 | 21.5% | 8.6% | 18.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Alfredo Simon probably wouldn’t get a paragraph on any other day and it’s even pretty borderline that he’s getting one today. He’s not a good pitcher, as his ERA over four and peripherals to match with a below average 9.6 K-BB% exhibit. He’s not in a bad spot today against a Seattle offense that’s been bad this year, but the park (an overall run enhancing environment) won’t really favor him, while you’re being asked to pay more for him than most other pitchers today except for DraftKings where he becomes the girl you tell yourself you’d go home only if you can’t get anybody else (but you’d really go home with anybody).
Andrew Heaney is the interesting one today, who I’ll probably spend the most time and effort deciphering. I’ll be learning as I write, so let’s see where this goes because some of the numbers seem to like him. An 18.6 K-BB% through four starts is amazing and backed up by an 11.0 SwStr%. He’s been consistently good in every starts, going at least seven innings in each of his last three with a 9.5 SwStr% or better in three of the four. His fastball, which he’s throwing 65% of the time has actually gained nearly 1.5 mph since his cup of coffee with the Marlins last season. The contact authority would be the caution flag here with a 20.0 Hard-Soft% so far, which isn’t going to fly, but it’s a big park with a good defense and he’s not walking anyone, which allows him to get away with a few things. He also has a great matchup in a good park against a team that can’t hit LHP. The Red Sox don’t strike out against RHP or on the road, but do K at a nearly normal rate (19.0%) vs LHP. They represent tonight’s top park adjusted matchup.
Chris Rusin pitches for the Rockies, who are playing the Rangers in Colorado today. That should automatically disqualify him, but we’re considering some new things today. The three things we’re considering here are a SwStr% that suggests a higher K%, which we’ll discuss in the appropriate section, an exceptional batted ball and contact authority profile, and the fact that the Rangers lean very left-handed, but let’s go back to the 2nd thing immediately. Rusin has a fairly heavy ground ball rate (53.2%, 2.06 GB/FB). This makes his 16.7 HR/FB (perfectly acceptable for Colorado) more tolerable, but then we find that he has a -3.7 Hard-Soft% and start to consider upside. Put him against Texas with a 23.6 K% against LHP.
Gio Gonzalez generally pitches well at home with a 15.2 K-BB% and 3.2 HR/FB since last season. He’s gone at least six innings, allowing two ERs or less in six of his last eight starts, including a total of two ERs over his last three starts. Not only does he get to face the worst road team in the majors with a 22.5 K%, they also strike out 24.1% vs LHP, and he gets the added benefit of them having played 18 innings yesterday.
Ian Kennedy has allowed 12 of his 20 HRs at home in exactly half of his 16 starts, so he’s definitely not getting the benefit of Petco this year and he has a 19.0 Hard-Soft% to back it up. His upside is in a 24.3 K% at home since last season, but the Giants are a tough, tough offense, even if the park should mute the offense and make it essentially a league average matchup, but who knows? They make more contact than the average team and it’s often good contact (lots of line drives, few pop ups).
Matt Harvey would seem to be the obvious choice today and he is one, but we now know to be a bit more cautious with him this season and that a lot of his struggles have come when he has more than his normal rest. That said, his overall numbers are pretty damn good for someone coming off Tommy John surgery and he struck out nine of 28 D’Backs in his most recent start. He faces a Washington team that’s struggled at home and been just league average vs RHP, probably because they’ve been very banged up, putting out some ugly lineups recently, starring Bryce Harper and no one. The have a slightly higher than league average strikeout rate and a -16.4 Hard-Soft% over the weekend against the Dodgers.
Rubby de la Rosa gets destroyed by LHBs and allowed three of the 21 Mets he faced to homer in his last start before the break and that was at Citi Field. He’s allowed 21 HRs this year now, 15 of them to lefties and his home park does him no favors. What he does do is generate strikeouts at a better than league average clip and even has a SwStr rate that might suggest more. The Marlins are the 2nd worst offense vs RHP. They do have a 12.5 HR/FB on the road, but I’m struggling to think of where they find LH power.
Yordano Ventura has struck out just nine of 53 batters over 11 innings encompassing three starts since the beginning of June, but may be the type of guy you consider taking a shot with tonight. Everything about him screams league average except the extremely hard contact he’s allowed this year (21.1 Hard-Soft%), but that’s where the defense and the park help him. The Pirates may be a good team, but really a mediocre offense with a 22.6 K% on the road.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
A.J. Burnett (.314 BABIP – 81.7 LOB% – 4.7 HR/FB) – This is a problem because despite the fact that his results have far exceeded the actual performance, much of it has been due to the situation surrounding him that won’t change and could be expected to continue. The issue is that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats in the first place and faces a good offense that does not strike out at home (14.2) or vs RHP (16.0). Plus he’s the 2nd priced pitcher on almost every site where it might seem more reasonable buying a lottery ticket than paying up for him. (Fanduel is where an opposing argument can at least be made.) There’s a price limit in daily fantasy for any pitcher in any situation and I think we’ve exceeded his today.
Michael Lorenzen – (.261 BABIP – 85.5 LOB% – 17.6 HR/FB) – I’ll leave his BABIP alone because the Reds have a well-positioned defense and the HR/FB actually counteracts his 85.5 LOB%, but he has just a 2.6 K-BB%, making him entirely useless even against the high strikeout Cubs with enormous walk and HR rates.
Matthew Wisler (.295 BABIP – 77.6 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB) – While all these numbers are fine, he has a 9.8 K-BB%, which is below average yet an ERA just barely above three and has a tough matchup tonight. He seems to be over-valued tonight.
Nick Martinez (.286 BABIP – 76.3 LOB% – 9.3 HR/FB) – Again, these numbers all fine, but come with a 5.4 K-BB% and 16.5 Hard-Soft%. Good luck in Colorado with that.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tim Hudson would seem like the type of pitcher you could go for today at a low price, but I’m slightly skeptical of a guy who hasn’t pitched in nearly a month due to shoulder discomfort.
David Buchanan has a 10.7 K% which matches his BB% with a 23.2 Hard-Soft%. That pretty much kills a decent matchup with a team that strikes out 22.1% of the time vs RHP.
Brandon Beachy sat below 90 mph, walked three, and got three swinging strikes against the Brewers in his first start.
Steven Wright
David Phelps is pitching in Arizona with 4.5 SwStr% and 18.8 Hard-Soft%.
J.A. Happ is a mediocre lefty, who has a bad, bad matchup against the lefty smashing Tigers.
Matt Moore has been pretty awful in his return, striking out just eight of 68 batters and faces a Phillies team that’s been nearly league average vs LHP, despite a -0.2 Hard-Soft%.
Clayton Richard – When the hell did he get back into the league? And I just assumed he was pitching for the Phillies today.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 21.5% | 8.6% | Road | 18.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 10.2% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 15.8% | 7.2% | Home | 17.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 18.9% | 4.8% | Home | 20.6% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 1.8% |
| Brandon Beachy | Dodgers | 18.0% | 5.0% | Road | L14 Days | 10.5% | 15.8% | ||
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 13.6% | 8.1% | Home | 16.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Clayton Richard | Cubs | 10.2% | 8.2% | Road | L14 Days | 5.3% | 15.8% | ||
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 13.4% | 7.3% | Home | 12.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 17.6% | 8.1% | Road | 16.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.3% | 8.7% | Home | 23.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.3% | 8.5% | Home | 24.3% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 6.8% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 19.2% | 7.6% | Road | 17.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 24.0% | 4.6% | Road | 24.8% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 16.5% | 11.1% | Road | 7.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 8.5% | 10.6% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 17.2% | 7.4% | Home | 15.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 15.3% | 12.7% | Home | 16.1% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 15.4% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 13.0% | 8.6% | Road | 12.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.6% | 6.9% | Home | 20.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.8% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 17.1% | 7.0% | Road | 16.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 14.7% | 4.9% | Road | 12.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 19.9% | 8.7% | Home | 20.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.6% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 14.2% | 6.3% | RH | 16.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 7.0% | RH | 22.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.8% | 8.2% | LH | 19.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.2% | 6.3% |
| Braves | Home | 18.7% | 8.4% | RH | 17.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.9% | 7.0% | LH | 23.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 1.8% |
| Reds | Home | 18.2% | 8.7% | LH | 20.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.6% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | RH | 22.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 4.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.8% | 8.1% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.7% |
| Mets | Road | 22.5% | 6.5% | LH | 24.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 10.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.0% | 7.0% | RH | 18.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.9% | 7.2% | LH | 23.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.2% | 7.8% | RH | 21.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 6.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.5% | 6.3% | LH | 20.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 15.8% | 5.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.6% | 10.2% | RH | 19.9% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.8% | 8.7% | RH | 24.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 12.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.0% | 6.9% | RH | 19.9% | 6.2% | L7Days | 30.6% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.7% | 5.8% | RH | 20.3% | 6.2% | L7Days | 14.9% | 5.3% |
| Angels | Home | 20.5% | 7.8% | RH | 19.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.4% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 6.1% | RH | 22.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 28.1% | 10.9% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.6% | 6.5% | RH | 20.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates | 20.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | Road | 21.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.1% | 28.6% |
| Alfredo Simon | Tigers | 21.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% | Home | 21.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 7.1% | 28.6% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 20.8% | 13.3% | 6.7% | Home | 18.4% | 11.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Beachy | Dodgers | 17.6% | 11.6% | 7.0% | Road | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% | |||
| Chris Rusin | Rockies | 21.6% | 12.5% | 10.8% | Home | 16.4% | 11.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Clayton Richard | Cubs | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 19.7% | 9.5% | 12.8% | Home | 17.2% | 10.0% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 23.6% | 9.5% | 10.9% | Road | 23.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | Home | 21.2% | 3.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 5.9% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.4% | 12.4% | 8.2% | Home | 23.1% | 15.1% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 20.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | Road | 21.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 19.3% | 9.5% | 11.6% | Road | 14.9% | 13.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | Road | 30.3% | 12.5% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 23.0% | 8.1% | 13.5% | Home | 8.6% | 0.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 25.9% | 17.6% | 7.4% | Home | 25.9% | 21.6% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 21.1% | 8.5% | 10.9% | Road | 21.0% | 8.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 20.8% | 15.6% | 8.0% | Home | 18.8% | 14.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 29.4% | 0.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | 15.6% | 11.7% | 3.9% | Road | 15.0% | 15.8% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 20.9% | 11.8% | 7.9% | Road | 21.9% | 12.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | 20.3% | 9.7% | 8.1% | Home | 18.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 21.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | RH | 21.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.2% | 12.2% | 8.5% | RH | 19.6% | 11.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.7% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.3% | 9.1% | 12.7% | LH | 19.1% | 10.1% | 12.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braves | Home | 21.0% | 7.5% | 10.8% | RH | 22.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.1% | 12.5% | 8.7% | LH | 19.9% | 11.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.0% | 20.0% |
| Reds | Home | 22.6% | 13.8% | 8.2% | LH | 23.0% | 12.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 13.8% | 0.0% |
| Rays | Road | 21.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | RH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 11.6% | 8.6% | 14.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.4% | 10.7% | 7.9% | RH | 21.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 7.8% | 10.6% | LH | 20.8% | 14.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Giants | Road | 23.8% | 11.9% | 5.6% | RH | 22.2% | 10.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 28.9% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | LH | 23.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 11.5% | 8.8% | RH | 20.9% | 12.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 12.3% | 13.6% | 22.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | LH | 22.9% | 9.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.3% | 15.4% | 3.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.5% | 14.2% | 8.5% | RH | 21.6% | 15.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 28.0% | 7.4% | 18.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% | RH | 19.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 24.3% | 3.6% | 14.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.8% | 12.6% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 14.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.2% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% | RH | 20.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| Angels | Home | 20.6% | 11.8% | 10.1% | RH | 20.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 4.9% | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Padres | Home | 19.7% | 11.7% | 6.3% | RH | 19.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 31.3% | 0.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | RH | 20.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 4.5% | 18.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 20.5% | 8.5% | 2.41 | 17.5% | 8.3% | 2.11 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 17.2% | 9.0% | 1.91 | 15.3% | 9.8% | 1.56 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 22.6% | 11.0% | 2.05 | 22.6% | 11.0% | 2.05 |
| Brandon Beachy | LOS | 10.5% | 3.9% | 2.69 | 10.5% | 3.9% | 2.69 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 14.5% | 8.8% | 1.65 | 13.4% | 8.3% | 1.61 |
| Clayton Richard | CHC | 10.2% | 4.9% | 2.08 | 10.2% | 4.9% | 2.08 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 10.7% | 6.7% | 1.60 | 13.0% | 9.7% | 1.34 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 16.0% | 4.5% | 3.56 | 15.6% | 5.9% | 2.64 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.5% | 8.6% | 2.38 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 2.35 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 21.2% | 10.0% | 2.12 | 18.7% | 8.1% | 2.31 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 18.4% | 7.3% | 2.52 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 2.58 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 24.3% | 11.6% | 2.09 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 2.28 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 11.8% | 8.7% | 1.36 | 11.8% | 8.7% | 1.36 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 17.2% | 8.0% | 2.15 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 2.15 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 15.3% | 7.9% | 1.94 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 2.21 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.4% | 7.4% | 1.81 | 10.5% | 5.9% | 1.78 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 21.1% | 12.1% | 1.74 | 17.6% | 11.9% | 1.48 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 13.2% | 9.2% | 1.43 | 0.0% | 6.1% | 0.00 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 12.5% | 8.7% | 1.44 | 16.1% | 13.2% | 1.22 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 19.4% | 9.0% | 2.16 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 1.78 |
Alfredo Simon had an 11+ SwStr% in five straight starts before going 5.5% and 2.1% in his last two, his lowest two marks since his first two starts of the season.
Chris Rusin hasn’t been consistent, but has had a double digit SwStr% in half of his eight starts and at this point, we’re just looking for some upside today.
Rubby de la Rosa – The current Arizona catching options are poor framers, but this would seem like a guy with the potential to strike out a quarter of the batters he faces. His 7.3 SwStr% in his last start was only the 2nd time he’s been below 9% this season with the last being his on April 13th.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 2.11 | 3.44 | 1.33 | 3.31 | 1.2 | 2.75 | 0.64 | 2.67 | 3.71 | 1.04 | 3.62 | 0.95 | 2.88 | 0.21 |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 4.53 | 4.29 | -0.24 | 4.15 | -0.38 | 3.89 | -0.64 | 11.12 | 4.52 | -6.6 | 4.61 | -6.51 | 5.44 | -5.68 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 1.32 | 3.26 | 1.94 | 3.2 | 1.88 | 2.77 | 1.45 | 1.32 | 3.26 | 1.94 | 3.2 | 1.88 | 2.77 | 1.45 |
| Brandon Beachy | LOS | 6.75 | 6.56 | -0.19 | 6.41 | -0.34 | 4.31 | -2.44 | 6.75 | 6.56 | -0.19 | 6.41 | -0.34 | 4.31 | -2.44 |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 3.98 | 4.11 | 0.13 | 4 | 0.02 | 4.68 | 0.7 | 2.73 | 4.13 | 1.4 | 4.15 | 1.42 | 4.69 | 1.96 |
| Clayton Richard | CHC | 5.79 | 4.24 | -1.55 | 4.17 | -1.62 | 3.28 | -2.51 | 5.79 | 4.25 | -1.54 | 4.17 | -1.62 | 3.28 | -2.51 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 7.58 | 5.44 | -2.14 | 5.37 | -2.21 | 4.65 | -2.93 | 1.8 | 4.21 | 2.41 | 3.82 | 2.02 | 1.86 | 0.06 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 3.86 | 4.23 | 0.37 | 4.16 | 0.3 | 3.79 | -0.07 | 3.38 | 4.36 | 0.98 | 4.68 | 1.3 | 5.37 | 1.99 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.99 | 3.59 | -0.4 | 3.46 | -0.53 | 3.26 | -0.73 | 0.9 | 3.32 | 2.42 | 3.36 | 2.46 | 3.61 | 2.71 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.91 | 3.82 | -1.09 | 3.95 | -0.96 | 5.44 | 0.53 | 3.38 | 4.59 | 1.21 | 4.89 | 1.51 | 6.39 | 3.01 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 4.14 | 3.95 | -0.19 | 3.83 | -0.31 | 3.53 | -0.61 | 5.32 | 4.02 | -1.3 | 3.97 | -1.35 | 3.56 | -1.76 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 3.07 | 3.25 | 0.18 | 3.3 | 0.23 | 3.52 | 0.45 | 2.19 | 4.43 | 2.24 | 4.4 | 2.21 | 3.87 | 1.68 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 7.07 | 5.42 | -1.65 | 5.84 | -1.23 | 5.7 | -1.37 | 7.07 | 5.42 | -1.65 | 5.84 | -1.23 | 5.7 | -1.37 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 3.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 4.43 | 1.33 | 3.99 | 0.89 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 4.43 | 1.33 | 3.99 | 0.89 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 3.53 | 5.14 | 1.61 | 4.84 | 1.31 | 5.7 | 2.17 | 3.18 | 4.66 | 1.48 | 4.38 | 1.2 | 5.44 | 2.26 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.43 | 4.77 | 1.34 | 4.86 | 1.43 | 4.65 | 1.22 | 6.27 | 5.17 | -1.1 | 5.29 | -0.98 | 6.65 | 0.38 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 5.06 | 3.52 | -1.54 | 3.43 | -1.63 | 4.58 | -0.48 | 4.45 | 3.96 | -0.49 | 3.83 | -0.62 | 5.57 | 1.12 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 4.15 | 4.61 | 0.46 | 4.82 | 0.67 | 4.95 | 0.8 | 10.8 | 5.99 | -4.81 | 6.41 | -4.39 | 3.06 | -7.74 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.68 | 3.88 | -0.8 | 3.84 | -0.84 | 4.57 | -0.11 | 4.85 | 3.17 | -1.68 | 3.23 | -1.62 | 5.37 | 0.52 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.73 | 3.85 | -0.88 | 3.82 | -0.91 | 3.88 | -0.85 | 5.4 | 5.03 | -0.37 | 5.22 | -0.18 | 3.26 | -2.14 |
Andrew Heaney – As good as he’s been, a .233 BABIP and 94.1 LOB% have played a part in his 1.32 ERA and will surely regress. There is absolutely nothing in his batted ball profile, including a single infield fly and 22.7 LD% that suggests this will be something he can maintain aside from the fact that the defense has some serious BABIP suppression skills. A 7.4 HR/FB is more believable in that park, but not if he’s going to continue to have 38.7% of his batted balls hit hard.
GIo Gonzalez – The biggest difference over the last month seems to be the results as the peripherals have remained steady. He has become a heavy ground ball, league average strikeout pitcher this season and the negative is too many ground balls getting through. He does have just one pop up, but with just 60 fly balls allowed this season, a league average rate would be just five more. I’d blame much of his BABIP on his defense or poor positioning.
Ian Kennedy – If you believe his HR rate should normalize than his ERA is way too high for his 13.9 K-BB%. If you believe he’ll maintain a 20.8 HR/FB, then it seems it might even be too low.
Matt Harvey has just an 8.5 K-BB% over his last four starts with nine of his 21 strikeouts coming in his last start, but benefited from an 86.5 LOB% over that span. He has walked a very uncharacteristic nine over his last two starts though.
Rubby de la Rosa – It’s all in a 20.2 HR/FB, which is 22.7% vs LHBs.
Yordano Ventura has a 67.3 LOB% that is 10 points lower than last season. That’s been a lot of the difference, but he’s also being hit a lot harder as mentioned above. He has just a 4.9 Hard-Soft% last season, but 21.1% this year. His LD rate went from 21.3% to 18.9% though, so go figure. His 8.3 HR/FB has turned into an 11.3 HR/FB, so that seems to be part of where we’re seeing it, yet with a heavy ground ball rate, that equates to just seven HRs so far.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Burnett | PIT | 0.296 | 0.314 | 0.018 | 10.6% | 91.2% |
| Alfredo Simon | DET | 0.300 | 0.322 | 0.022 | 9.8% | 88.6% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.277 | 0.233 | -0.044 | 3.7% | 88.8% |
| Brandon Beachy | LOS | 0.298 | 0.357 | 0.059 | 16.7% | 100.0% |
| Chris Rusin | COL | 0.309 | 0.315 | 0.006 | 10.4% | 87.0% |
| Clayton Richard | CHC | 0.284 | 0.375 | 0.091 | 0.0% | 91.2% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.323 | 0.358 | 0.035 | 8.8% | 92.3% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.288 | 0.283 | -0.005 | 11.2% | 92.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.311 | 0.343 | 0.032 | 1.7% | 87.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.302 | 0.284 | -0.018 | 9.4% | 86.1% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 0.288 | 0.329 | 0.041 | 15.4% | 88.7% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.284 | 0.274 | -0.01 | 13.3% | 82.7% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.275 | 0.367 | 0.092 | 0.0% | 93.2% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.307 | 0.295 | -0.012 | 13.5% | 91.2% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.282 | 0.261 | -0.021 | 7.4% | 87.9% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 11.1% | 91.5% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 6.7% | 82.6% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.304 | 0.246 | -0.058 | 4.9% | 81.4% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 0.287 | 0.307 | 0.02 | 9.4% | 89.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.276 | 0.296 | 0.02 | 8.1% | 91.6% |
Nobody worth an additional mention today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
In a practice begun recently here, we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Today’s a mess. This is likely little more than pure speculation with any tiny little edge you can find potentially meaning a big difference. It seems the sites aren’t even sure as there are a lot of pricing discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel and really across the board today, making any generalized value analysis even more difficult. I considered scrapping the whole ratings thing just for today.
Value Tier One
Andrew Heaney (2) – has been able to generate a lot of swings and misses and has the top park adjusted matchup against a Boston team that is very bad vs LHP. You wouldn’t that would be the case with all of their RH bats, but it is and at this point we have no choice except to believe it’s real. They even strike out more against LHP. Heaney has been very good in every start, including one in Colorado, even if he isn’t what his ERA suggests.
Value Tier Two
Gio Gonzalez (3) – This might seem like a low ranking for him facing a potentially exhausted Mets offense, which doubles a terrible road team, but he’s been more ground ball than strikeouts this year. He should see a slight increase in Ks tonight though. In fact, I have him as the 2nd highest K% behind Harvey tonight, but with a fairly expensive price and not as much upside as in the past, it’s hard to push him much further in a daily fantasy setting. I expect to see him well owned tonight.
Matt Harvey (1) – Obviously, he has the most potential against the weak lineup the Nationals have been putting out there recently, but the range of outcomes is somewhat wider this year. Washington had a 33 K% against the Dodgers this weekend. The added risk keeps him here with an extremely large price tag instead of in the first tier. The upside to strike out a quarter of the batters he faces remains though.
Value Tier Three – Very little separation between this and the tier directly above.
Yordano Ventura (4) is one of those guys who is cheap on DraftKings, but not on Fanduel. He should be about league average here, which works on one site, but not so much on the other, unless he gets the win, which I’m hesitant to predict here.
Rubby de la Rosa (5) is a more universal projection with a similar cost across the board. This spot at home may be better than it seems because the Marlins have a lack of LH power, which is really the thing that scares you here. If he can limit the balls leaving the park today (and he’s been great against RHBs), he can strike out enough batters to give you good value at a reasonable price. He’s your upside play in GPPs tonight.
Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Alfredo Simon is cheap on DraftKings, not on Fanduel.
Ian Kennedy might be able to generate enough strikeouts to be useful at a reasonable price, but even Petco hasn’t held him this year.
Chris Rusin might be your lottery ticket tonight and dumpster diving play if needed, but everything is a scary proposition in Colorado. It’s probably more hope and prayer than expectation.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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