Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, August 7th
What generally happens here is that set-up is finished the night before. After a quick first look at the initial numbers on the board, there’s a general idea of how it’s going to go and the introduction is written, then edited in the morning if need be. Unfortunately, this didn’t get done before 9pm on Sunday. No big deal, it can wait until after GoT (no spoilers, but it’s hard to believe any fans of the show are DVRing and waiting until after this is posted).
So it’s now nearly 11pm. The sweating and shaking has just ended, but instead of thinking about baseball, I’m wondering if it’s too late to change the new pup’s name from Thor to Drogon (although he was actually in GoT last night). How can one possibly think about baseball after an hour of that?
It’s a seven game slate. That’s small, even for a Monday. There are pitchers. One of them is Max Scherzer. Hopefully his neck issue has cleared. If anything else comes to mind in the morning when the brain is baseball functional again there may be more to this introduction, but probably not.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | MIL | -1.6 | 4.09 | 5.46 | 44.7% | 1.04 | 4.01 | 3.73 | MIN | 98 | 85 | 57 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -1.5 | 3.83 | 6.23 | 53.9% | 1.06 | 3.82 | 3.83 | KAN | 92 | 89 | 61 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 4.9 | 5.12 | 5. | 28.8% | 1.01 | 5.49 | 5.05 | WAS | 115 | 107 | 63 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -5.1 | 4.56 | 5.69 | 34.0% | 0.91 | 5.04 | 5.14 | ANA | 101 | 96 | 123 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -0.2 | 4.42 | 6.27 | 42.5% | 1.04 | 4.46 | 3.61 | MIL | 95 | 92 | 66 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.2 | 4.22 | 5.73 | 35.4% | 1.06 | 4.87 | 5.28 | STL | 90 | 97 | 100 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.2 | 3.67 | 6.35 | 52.7% | 0.93 | 3.96 | 3.81 | SFO | 77 | 81 | 98 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 2 | 4.38 | 5.91 | 50.1% | 0.91 | 4.27 | 6.12 | BAL | 91 | 100 | 140 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.4 | 4.4 | 5.52 | 49.8% | 1.02 | 4.32 | 5.27 | CIN | 97 | 97 | 87 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.7 | 4.56 | 5.76 | 39.5% | 0.97 | 4.89 | 4.61 | PIT | 90 | 88 | 82 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | -3 | 4.54 | 5.85 | 38.6% | 0.93 | 4.51 | 5.38 | CHC | 95 | 113 | 123 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 1 | 2.85 | 6.67 | 34.9% | 1.01 | 2.98 | 3.44 | MIA | 103 | 97 | 77 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 7.3 | 4.79 | 5.32 | 35.4% | 1.02 | 4.96 | 6.68 | SDG | 80 | 87 | 73 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -2.4 | 4.53 | 5.35 | 49.2% | 0.97 | 4.52 | 4.59 | DET | 91 | 95 | 83 |
Brent Suter is coming off his worst start of the season by conventional results. He allowed five runs with two HRs in 5.1 innings, but struck out seven of 26 Cardinals with one walk and actually generated more weak contact (41.2%) than hard (35.3%). On the season, he has an above average 15.5 K-BB% and has been an excellent contact manager (84.8 mph aEV, 4.7% Barrels/BBE, 26.2% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board). The Twins have shown surprisingly little power against LHP (10.0 HR/FB).
Carlos Martinez walked five last time out, only allowing him to get through five innings. It’s been an issue for him at times this season with his 9.3 BB% tying a career high. Luckily, his 26 K% is also a career high, resulting in a career high 16.7 K-BB% as well. While he has retained a 51 GB%, his 34% hard hit rate does not exactly scream quality contact management and that’s once again a reflection on his inability to handle LHBs (.351 wOBA, 38.4 Hard%). The upside for him is that Kansas City is not a team that accepts walks (6.4% vs RHP) or has a lot of power (10.8 HR/FB at home) and has been especially weak hitting over the last week (-2.7 Hard-Soft%).
Jake Arrieta struck out nine of 27 Diamondbacks last time out, his highest total since May. While it’s been either strikeouts or ground balls throughout the year with him, but rarely both, he’s been back to strikeouts again over his last three starts (20.6 K-BB%, 44.9 GB%) and that’s fine for daily fantasy players as long as he’s still not allowing a lot of hard contact (8.2 Hard-Soft% last thee starts). He’s in the top spot on the board from a contact management standpoint. The Giants have just a 5.8 HR/FB at home and 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP.
Max Scherzer lasted one inning in his last start before walking off the mound with a neck issue. They seem to think everything is fine now and there should be no ill effects from this malady. “They” are the internet and more specifically Twitter, which is ALWAYS right. His 29.3 K-BB% is third in the majors and his 16.0 SwStr% is second. While he did allow three HRs a few starts back, that was in Arizona. He’s otherwise been a spectacular contact manager, which mostly shows up in the elite BABIP. The matchup with the Marlins presents no strengths or concerns.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Ervin Santana (.223 – 83% – 13.6) has been missing lots of bats over the last month, which could serve him extremely well against an offense that normally strikes out a quarter of the time and 32.4% over the last week, but he’s also allowed 22 HRs over 16 starts and the Brewers do that well (18.9 HR/FB vs RHP). I don’t understand how he does that with a 5.7% Barrels/BBE. His strikeout rate projects high enough to be of use, but I still don’t like paying more than $9K for him.
Dylan Bundy (.262 – 75.2% – 11.9) may have some ability to limit BABIP with a quality profile, but I’m skeptical about more than 50 points below his defense and he gives up a bit too much hard contact in a tough park to be able to accept both that and a lowish HR rate. He may have a bit more success with that visiting the Angels, but it’s not an offense that strikes out a lot (12.6% over the last week).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Trevor Williams is tied for the lowest exit velocity on the board (84.8 mph) and probably gets the Tigers in one of the best environments possible, which can neutralize a lot of their RH power while also removing the DH, but there’s still not enough upside here.
Ian Kennedy is one pace to allow fewer than 30 HRs for the first time in three years despite an 89.4 mph aEV and 10.1% Barrels/BBE that is not showing up at all in a .239 BABIP either. It doesn’t click until you look at his game log as realize he hasn’t pitched in many power friendly environments this year at all. His 8.9 SwStr% is also his lowest mark since his 2011 breakout in Arizona. The Cardinals are a very marginal offense, but Kansas City may actually be the most positive run environment in play today.
J.C. Ramirez has just a 2.2 K-BB% over the last month to go with his .253 BABIP, 84.6 LOB% and 7.7 HR/FB. The good news here is that he’s been much more efficient against RHBs (53.3 GB%, 28.4 Hard%), but Baltimore has been the hottest offense on the board.
Jhoulys Chacin has been a better contact manager than Ramirez above (85.8 mph aEV, 27.5% 95+ mph EV), but has also out-run his peripherals over the last month (8.3 K-BB%, .212 BABIP, 82.2 LOB%, 8.7 HR/FB) and finds himself in a less friendly environment in Cincinnati tonight.
Matt Moore
Chris O’Grady
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.8% | 5.7% | Road | 18.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 4.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.6% | 8.5% | Road | 24.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 14.6% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 21.4% | 12.5% | Road | 22.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.2% | 8.2% | Road | 20.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.6% | 7.6% | Home | 19.0% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 1.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.6% | Home | 22.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.5% | 7.9% | Road | 21.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.7% | 7.7% | Home | 18.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 13.6% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.7% | Road | 18.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.2% | 6.0% | Road | 16.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.5% | Home | 21.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 14.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.9% | 5.9% | Home | 34.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 11.5% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.5% | Home | 21.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 14.9% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.9% | 7.0% | Home | 17.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.0% | LH | 20.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.9% | RH | 20.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 6.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.0% | 9.1% | LH | 21.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 7.8% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 12.6% | 8.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.2% | 8.7% | RH | 25.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 8.9% | RH | 21.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 11.5% |
| Giants | Home | 19.1% | 7.1% | RH | 19.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.3% | 6.4% | RH | 21.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.8% |
| Reds | Home | 21.7% | 9.1% | RH | 20.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 17.9% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 9.6% | LH | 21.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 26.9% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.3% | 6.4% | RH | 20.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.5% |
| Padres | Road | 26.0% | 7.4% | RH | 25.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 8.9% | RH | 22.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2017 | 28.2% | 8.2% | 5.4% | Road | 28.7% | 14.3% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 14.3% | 2.8% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 2017 | 34.0% | 15.3% | 15.9% | Road | 34.3% | 10.3% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 25.0% | 19.2% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 38.4% | 12.1% | 27.4% | 2017 | 38.4% | 12.1% | 27.4% | Road | 26.9% | 9.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 15.4% | 33.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.6% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 2017 | 34.7% | 11.9% | 16.0% | Road | 32.9% | 13.2% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.5% | 16.6% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 2017 | 29.0% | 13.6% | 7.5% | Home | 28.9% | 13.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 12.0% | 4.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.4% | 12.9% | 21.1% | 2017 | 39.9% | 13.2% | 26.9% | Home | 41.5% | 12.1% | 26.1% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 21.9% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.1% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 2017 | 28.3% | 14.4% | 6.7% | Road | 28.3% | 15.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 7.7% | 15.6% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 2017 | 35.3% | 15.7% | 18.7% | Home | 30.3% | 16.3% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 8.3% | -4.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 2017 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 7.2% | Road | 32.6% | 19.2% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% | 19.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 2017 | 38.3% | 14.1% | 24.3% | Road | 29.1% | 11.5% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 5.6% | 19.6% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 2017 | 35.2% | 11.3% | 19.2% | Home | 31.6% | 10.6% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 14.3% | 9.4% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 8.5% | Home | 25.9% | 10.5% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 14.3% | 35.7% |
| Tim Adleman | Reds | L2 Years | 35.3% | 15.9% | 19.6% | 2017 | 35.3% | 17.4% | 18.5% | Home | 35.3% | 18.4% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 13.3% | 32.3% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.9% | 5.5% | 2017 | 29.5% | 9.4% | 4.4% | Home | 32.1% | 5.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 0.0% | -8.1% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 11.6% | 16.9% | LH | 29.9% | 10.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 34.5% | 13.0% | 15.2% |
| Royals | Home | 30.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | RH | 31.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.5% | -2.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.5% | 15.2% | 16.2% | LH | 31.8% | 15.2% | 12.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% |
| Angels | Home | 28.8% | 13.1% | 10.0% | RH | 30.8% | 13.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 10.9% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 17.9% | 12.5% | RH | 33.5% | 18.9% | 14.7% | L7Days | 35.3% | 17.1% | 23.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.2% | 12.8% | 13.4% | RH | 30.9% | 12.8% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | RH | 28.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.7% | 13.8% | 15.0% | RH | 32.3% | 16.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 31.6% | 16.2% | 14.0% |
| Reds | Home | 28.2% | 14.9% | 6.8% | RH | 29.6% | 14.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 27.2% | 14.3% | 8.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | RH | 29.7% | 10.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 26.6% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.9% | 15.0% | 10.5% | LH | 29.8% | 19.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 33.6% | 27.7% | 16.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.4% | 14.8% | 10.7% | RH | 32.1% | 15.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 29.9% | 12.9% | 9.1% |
| Padres | Road | 30.1% | 14.4% | 8.0% | RH | 29.1% | 13.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 32.3% | 11.5% | -3.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.7% | 12.6% | 17.4% | RH | 40.1% | 11.6% | 24.7% | L7Days | 29.6% | 17.8% | 11.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | MIL | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.22 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.15 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 26.0% | 10.6% | 2.45 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 2.18 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 21.4% | 6.3% | 3.40 | 21.4% | 6.3% | 3.40 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 18.6% | 10.2% | 1.82 | 16.7% | 11.1% | 1.50 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.2% | 10.0% | 1.92 | 21.2% | 13.0% | 1.63 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.33 | 20.4% | 8.5% | 2.40 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 23.2% | 9.1% | 2.55 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 2.74 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 18.2% | 9.2% | 1.98 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 2.07 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.7% | 8.3% | 2.37 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 2.46 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 15.9% | 8.3% | 1.92 | 14.5% | 7.9% | 1.84 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 18.5% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 2.19 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.7% | 16.0% | 2.23 | 36.2% | 15.1% | 2.40 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 20.8% | 10.7% | 1.94 | 17.8% | 9.9% | 1.80 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 16.8% | 8.0% | 2.10 | 16.1% | 6.0% | 2.68 |
Full season outliers are non-existent on today’s board.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | MIL | 3.04 | 3.99 | 0.95 | 3.96 | 0.92 | 3.26 | 0.22 | 5.70 | 2.66 | 3.07 | 4.04 | 0.97 | 3.93 | 0.86 | 3.45 | 0.38 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.59 | 3.89 | 0.3 | 3.63 | 0.04 | 3.8 | 0.21 | 3.24 | -0.35 | 5.28 | 4.23 | -1.05 | 3.85 | -1.43 | 4.86 | -0.42 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 5.4 | 5.12 | -0.28 | 5.37 | -0.03 | 5.1 | -0.3 | 8.76 | 3.36 | 5.4 | 5.12 | -0.28 | 5.37 | -0.03 | 5.1 | -0.3 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 4.24 | 4.88 | 0.64 | 5.16 | 0.92 | 4.84 | 0.6 | 5.08 | 0.84 | 3.72 | 5.02 | 1.3 | 5.48 | 1.76 | 4.74 | 1.02 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.28 | 4.71 | 1.43 | 4.82 | 1.54 | 4.8 | 1.52 | 3.88 | 0.60 | 4.68 | 4.66 | -0.02 | 5.04 | 0.36 | 5.46 | 0.78 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.6 | 4.74 | 0.14 | 5.06 | 0.46 | 4.98 | 0.38 | 5.08 | 0.48 | 5.06 | 4.36 | -0.7 | 4.63 | -0.43 | 3.89 | -1.17 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.88 | 4.08 | 0.2 | 4.01 | 0.13 | 4.1 | 0.22 | 4.18 | 0.30 | 2.53 | 4.38 | 1.85 | 4.48 | 1.95 | 4.33 | 1.8 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.03 | 4.53 | 0.5 | 4.36 | 0.33 | 4.61 | 0.58 | 4.28 | 0.25 | 1.93 | 5.46 | 3.53 | 4.89 | 2.96 | 4.27 | 2.34 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 3.99 | 4.43 | 0.44 | 4.24 | 0.25 | 4.25 | 0.26 | 4.52 | 0.53 | 2.35 | 4.76 | 2.41 | 4.21 | 1.86 | 3.73 | 1.38 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.35 | 5.02 | -0.33 | 5.18 | -0.17 | 5.26 | -0.09 | 5.68 | 0.33 | 4.61 | 4.86 | 0.25 | 4.87 | 0.26 | 3.54 | -1.07 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.8 | 4.89 | -0.91 | 5.15 | -0.65 | 4.73 | -1.07 | 7.28 | 1.48 | 5.86 | 4.6 | -1.26 | 4.78 | -1.08 | 4.69 | -1.17 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.21 | 2.74 | 0.53 | 3.08 | 0.87 | 2.83 | 0.62 | 2.00 | -0.21 | 3.51 | 3.03 | -0.48 | 2.87 | -0.64 | 3.88 | 0.37 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 5.42 | 4.74 | -0.68 | 5.06 | -0.36 | 5.7 | 0.28 | 7.09 | 1.67 | 7.71 | 5.3 | -2.41 | 5.67 | -2.04 | 5.94 | -1.77 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.47 | 4.57 | 0.1 | 4.43 | -0.04 | 3.89 | -0.58 | 4.10 | -0.37 | 3.95 | 4.55 | 0.6 | 4.25 | 0.3 | 3.83 | -0.12 |
Note: Unfortunately, when I looked to update DRA this morning, everyone read 0.00 on Baseball Prospectus. Not that the pitchers mind, but for that reason, we’re using last week’s number there.
Brent Suter has just an 8.2 HR/FB, which is hard to sustain in Milwaukee, especially in this ear. However, his great contact authority profile is not showing up in a BABIP above .300 and he’s not at home tonight. DRA hates him for some reason.
Jake Arrieta has just a .186 BABIP over the last month with a 2.0 Hard-Soft% (48.9 GB%).
Max Scherzer has a .233 BABIP and 83.2 LOB% that are a bit extreme, but not too far off from what he’s been doing in recent years and with the underlying numbers to back most of it up.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | MIL | 0.300 | 0.310 | 0.01 | 45.3% | 0.216 | 12.2% | 85.2% | 84.8 | 4.70% | 26.20% | 149 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.280 | -0.014 | 51.0% | 0.188 | 9.9% | 86.3% | 87.3 | 5.70% | 35.30% | 371 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 0.293 | 0.319 | 0.026 | 28.8% | 0.26 | 12.1% | 89.2% | 89.4 | 12.30% | 37.00% | 73 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.315 | 0.262 | -0.053 | 32.3% | 0.208 | 14.2% | 85.7% | 88.1 | 7.90% | 36.30% | 380 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.298 | 0.223 | -0.075 | 41.7% | 0.158 | 13.0% | 88.7% | 85.7 | 5.70% | 31.80% | 424 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.239 | -0.06 | 38.4% | 0.147 | 7.6% | 83.7% | 89.4 | 10.10% | 35.10% | 308 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.283 | 0.273 | -0.01 | 46.3% | 0.211 | 6.8% | 85.5% | 86.8 | 5.50% | 32.70% | 361 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.291 | 0.006 | 49.7% | 0.194 | 6.6% | 87.1% | 87.4 | 6.50% | 34.50% | 397 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.276 | -0.031 | 51.9% | 0.185 | 14.7% | 89.8% | 85.8 | 5.30% | 27.50% | 374 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.316 | 0.007 | 33.0% | 0.256 | 11.7% | 90.6% | 88.6 | 7.50% | 35.50% | 400 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.317 | 0.331 | 0.014 | 38.2% | 0.196 | 7.1% | 88.0% | 89.1 | 9.60% | 41.40% | 406 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.293 | 0.233 | -0.06 | 37.4% | 0.163 | 13.1% | 78.7% | 86.1 | 6.00% | 30.60% | 317 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | 0.293 | 0.284 | -0.009 | 34.7% | 0.198 | 8.7% | 83.4% | 87 | 7.80% | 33.30% | 309 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.299 | -0.009 | 49.7% | 0.194 | 14.6% | 90.5% | 84.8 | 5.60% | 28.80% | 319 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1) is a no-brainer if he’s over that neck issue. Gonna be some mighty mad DFSers if he wanders off the mound after one inning again, but the Nationals don’t seem to think that’s going to happen and you’d have to believe them here. There would be absolutely no reason to risk him if he weren’t fully healthy.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Martinez has some issues (control, LHBs), but fortunately, missing bats hasn’t been much of an issue (after it was for a few starts at the beginning of July). He’s in a fairly decent spot in Kansas City and one which may help mask his weaknesses.
Value Tier Three
Jake Arrieta has done a decent enough job of muffling contact without the help of the Giants. Tonight he’s going to get that and the good news is that his strikeout rate seems to be on the rise again, not to the point where it had been a couple of years ago, but useful enough for our purposes.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Brent Suter had a bit of a setback last time out, but it wasn’t so bad. He’s been an extremely effective contact manager with above average peripherals so far and is in a decent spot at an average or below average cost. If you like him a little bit more than his estimators, a small bump up is not out of the question.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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