Advanced Stats – Pitching: Thursday, July 27th
We lost the best pitcher in the American League to the day slate yesterday and today Max Scherzer is an afternoon casualty. Three very early games and a five game night slate with an interesting set of arms. Essentially, half of the arms on the main slate are rookies with one making his major league debut. The good news is that we still have a few All-Star caliber arms to play with and a couple of these young guys might be interesting.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 1.1 | 4.5 | 5.79 | 49.7% | 1.01 | 4.11 | 6 | TAM | 98 | 92 | 78 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -0.7 | 3.52 | 6.18 | 45.6% | 1.01 | 3.76 | 3.22 | NYY | 120 | 116 | 114 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 4.1 | 5.23 | 5. | 25.0% | 0.94 | 5.15 | 5.24 | CIN | 91 | 89 | 64 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 1.2 | 4.27 | 5.79 | 50.1% | 1.09 | 4.17 | 3.96 | CLE | 113 | 107 | 165 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.2 | 3.53 | 6.25 | 48.4% | 0.98 | 3.56 | 2.06 | CHW | 90 | 106 | 81 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -5.8 | 4.05 | 5.63 | 61.3% | 0.91 | 4.14 | 6.07 | NYM | 109 | 101 | 99 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | -3.5 | 3.62 | 4.4 | 30.9% | 0.98 | 3.27 | ARI | 80 | 103 | 127 | |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.8 | 3.64 | 6.38 | 61.2% | 1.03 | 3.44 | 4.17 | OAK | 85 | 102 | 87 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.1 | 2.86 | 6.76 | 35.2% | 1.01 | 2.96 | 3.21 | MIL | 97 | 95 | 92 |
| Michael Blazek | MIL | -1.3 | 4.94 | 39.8% | 1.01 | 5.29 | 6.17 | WAS | 113 | 108 | 87 | |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.2 | 5.11 | 4.98 | 49.7% | 0.98 | 5.1 | 6.32 | CHC | 95 | 91 | 94 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 7.4 | 4.88 | 4.68 | 37.6% | 0.94 | 6.09 | 3.95 | MIA | 87 | 96 | 131 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -12.2 | 4.1 | 5.84 | 45.0% | 1.03 | 4.05 | 5.05 | TOR | 91 | 94 | 83 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0 | 4.23 | 5.71 | 46.7% | 1.09 | 3.92 | 6.11 | ANA | 83 | 93 | 116 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -5.3 | 3.97 | 5.67 | 53.2% | 0.98 | 3.31 | 2.83 | STL | 105 | 99 | 122 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | -1.4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.91 | SDG | 90 | 86 | 114 |
Chris Archer has the top strikeout rate on the slate (29.3%) and has at least eight Ks in each of his last four starts, pushing his K-BB up to 21.6% on the season. He’s had some issues with hard contact (88.8 mph aEV), which has shown up more in his .326 BABIP than a 10.9 HR/FB. He’s in a difficult spot at Yankee Stadium, against an offense with a 20.0 HR/FB at home.
Jon Lester tied a season high with 10 strikeouts last time out (third time), going eight innings for the first time. He’s bounced back nicely after a couple of beatings to start the month and while his walk rate is up a bit, his 24.9 K% is within 0.1 point of where its’ been each of the previous three seasons. His 50.5 GB% ties a season high, while his 27 Hard% is less than a point removed from his career rate as well. His 84.9 mph aEV and 27% 95+ mph EV are best on the board (full day). He’s the unquestioned anchor of this pitching staff this year. While the White Sox have been above average against LHP, they don’t walk (6.8%) and just traded one of their top RH bats. Their hard contact rate is below 30% at home, vs LHP and over the last week (26.3%).
Luke Weaver arrived in the league with a 19.8 K-BB% through 36.1 innings, but seven HRs and a .386 BABIP shot his ERA above five and more than two runs above his non-FIP estimators. While he had an outrageous 36.6 LD%, his hard hit rate was just 32.4%. He’s generated a 21.7 K-BB% through 13 AAA starts this season without BABIP or HR issues. One area of concern is that he’s failed to go more than five innings in seven of his last nine AAA starts. The Diamondbacks drop off sharply on the road (24.4 K%, 10.6 Hard-Soft%), but have recently upgraded their lineup with a bat that has shown proficiency in difficult parks before.
Zack Godley has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over his last 11.2 innings, but while striking out 19 of 53 batters. It seems he’s abandoned ground balls (34.5% last two starts) and while daily fantasy players will always take the strikeout increase, it hasn’t really worked out too well for him. His 14.9 SwStr% is tops on the slate, while his ground ball rate remains well above average (55.8% for the season) with just an 85 mph aEV and 4.3% Barrels/BBE. He gets a park upgrade in a neutral spot in St Louis tonight.
Chris Flexen was just an “other of note” among Mets prospects via Fangraphs this pre-season, but Baseball America has him 10th in the organization in their mid-season update after the 23 year-old has dominated in his first taste of AA. The Mets don’t normally aggressively promote guys like this, so even if it’s just a spot start, something must have caught their eye and maybe that’s a 24.0 K-BB% in seven starts since being promoted from high A ball with a fastball that sits low to mid-90s. He has all the secondaries (slider, curve, change) with a slider that has improved by bounds this year. He debuts in one of the top spots on the board in San Diego (25.5 K%, 7.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
C.C. Sabathia (.272 – 76.9% – 11.1) has a low BABIP and HR/FB with a slightly high LOB%, but no single number that’s too far out of line to go with his below average 9.6 K-BB%. He’s walked 11 with just nine strikeouts over his last three starts. The Rays strike out more than a quarter of the time with less power (12.4 HR/FB) vs LHP.
Mike Pelfrey (.269 – 72.4% – 13.3) also has a low BABIP, the lowest of his career, but for all their other faults, the defense has actually been decent, though 11.4% of his runs have been unearned. As we know now though, errors are only a small part of defense. While he keeps the ball on the ground and manages contact well enough to avoid being hammered in a way that’s useful to daily fantasy players attacking him a lot of times, his 3.8 K-BB% is useless.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Luis Perdomo has the top ground ball rate among pitchers with at least 90 innings (65.3%), but has been missing very few bats over the last month. Further, his ground ball rate is 14 points higher vs RHBs, while the Mets can field a lineup with very few RH bats.
Robert Stephenson has a 19.9 K-BB% in 40 AAA innings this season, but just a 9.6 K-BB% in 30 major league innings (mostly in relief) to go along with his 7.1 K-BB% in 37 innings last year. He struck out five of 25 Marlins in his first major league start of the season last week, but allowed two HRs. His major league hard hit rate now stands at 40.6%. His 89.9 mph aEV and 42.7% 95+ mph EV this year are worst on the board.
Chris O’Grady has allowed exactly three runs in each of his three starts with a high of 5.1 innings, while walking six in his most recent. Ten percent of his batted balls have been barrels with an 88.8 mph aEV.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.1% | Home | 20.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.2% | Road | 25.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 10.9% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 24.2% | 15.2% | Home | 27.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 18.6% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.3% | Road | 18.0% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 6.6% | Road | 24.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 2.0% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.6% | Home | 15.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 26.3% | 7.3% | Home | 26.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.6% | Home | 19.2% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 32.8% | 6.0% | Home | 34.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 38.0% | 12.0% |
| Michael Blazek | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.6% | 11.5% | Road | 18.4% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.5% | 8.4% | Home | 12.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 17.5% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 19.9% | 11.7% | Road | 16.8% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.9% | 7.2% | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 7.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.5% | Home | 22.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 21.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.8% | 8.5% | Road | 22.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 7.6% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 25.2% | 8.5% | LH | 26.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.5% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 10.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.7% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 7.4% | LH | 21.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.0% |
| Indians | Home | 18.5% | 10.1% | RH | 19.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.7% | 13.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 22.6% | 7.5% | LH | 21.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.8% |
| Mets | Road | 20.3% | 8.8% | RH | 18.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.4% | 8.4% | RH | 22.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 28.2% | 13.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.4% | 9.0% | RH | 25.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.9% | 9.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.7% | 8.7% | RH | 25.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.6% | 9.4% | RH | 19.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 25.0% | 6.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.5% | 9.7% | RH | 21.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.6% | 7.8% | RH | 20.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.5% | 8.7% | LH | 21.5% | 11.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.5% |
| Angels | Road | 21.3% | 8.6% | RH | 20.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 6.2% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.0% | 9.7% | RH | 21.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.8% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 8.2% | RH | 25.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.4% | 4.3% | 2017 | 32.3% | 11.1% | 10.9% | Home | 28.7% | 15.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -23.3% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 36.0% | 13.1% | 19.4% | 2017 | 38.0% | 10.9% | 21.7% | Road | 33.3% | 17.4% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 7.1% | 20.7% |
| Chris O’Grady | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.5% | 10.0% | 22.5% | 2017 | 32.5% | 10.0% | 22.5% | Home | 42.9% | 11.1% | 42.9% | L14 Days | 47.8% | 18.2% | 47.8% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.9% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 2017 | 37.1% | 16.5% | 21.5% | Road | 34.0% | 15.7% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 2017 | 27.0% | 16.8% | 5.0% | Road | 26.7% | 14.6% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 33.3% | 12.1% |
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.3% | 20.2% | 16.1% | 2017 | 32.1% | 17.5% | 14.2% | Home | 33.3% | 16.9% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 13.9% |
| Luke Weaver | Cardinals | L2 Years | 32.5% | 19.4% | 15.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% | Home | 21.4% | 20.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.2% | 16.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 29.5% | 16.9% | 7.6% | Home | 31.5% | 13.1% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -5.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 2017 | 27.7% | 11.6% | 7.2% | Home | 25.6% | 10.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 44.0% | 30.0% | 32.0% |
| Michael Blazek | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 2017 | 31.6% | 0.0% | 10.5% | Road | 23.5% | 7.1% | -3.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.5% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 2017 | 28.9% | 13.3% | 5.6% | Home | 31.9% | 19.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Robert Stephenson | Reds | L2 Years | 40.6% | 21.2% | 25.0% | 2017 | 43.8% | 24.3% | 30.3% | Road | 42.2% | 30.3% | 31.4% | L14 Days | 61.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 33.7% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 2017 | 33.9% | 8.7% | 17.3% | Road | 34.8% | 13.4% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 4.5% | 14.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 2017 | 37.1% | 16.1% | 23.4% | Home | 34.2% | 16.6% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.4% | 16.4% | 11.8% | 2017 | 29.3% | 12.5% | 8.1% | Road | 24.4% | 13.7% | -2.3% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 25.0% | 3.4% |
| Chris Flexen | Mets | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Road | 33.7% | 16.7% | 14.8% | LH | 34.9% | 12.4% | 14.5% | L7Days | 32.8% | 15.0% | 11.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.6% | 20.0% | 9.7% | RH | 31.7% | 16.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 31.8% | 15.0% | 13.0% |
| Reds | Road | 30.3% | 13.7% | 11.2% | LH | 27.9% | 14.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 30.6% | 14.8% | 7.5% |
| Indians | Home | 31.4% | 12.7% | 13.9% | RH | 33.9% | 12.0% | 17.3% | L7Days | 34.7% | 16.4% | 17.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 12.9% | 7.5% | LH | 28.5% | 13.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 26.3% | 11.4% | 8.3% |
| Mets | Road | 36.5% | 15.4% | 19.0% | RH | 35.0% | 13.2% | 17.8% | L7Days | 34.6% | 13.9% | 17.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.2% | 13.8% | 10.6% | RH | 36.0% | 15.2% | 18.8% | L7Days | 38.2% | 24.5% | 21.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.6% | 12.7% | 15.4% | RH | 33.3% | 15.2% | 16.3% | L7Days | 27.5% | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.3% | 18.0% | 11.7% | RH | 33.7% | 19.4% | 14.5% | L7Days | 33.3% | 14.5% | 17.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.9% | 13.8% | 15.4% | RH | 31.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | L7Days | 31.3% | 8.9% | 14.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 29.8% | 14.8% | 10.7% | RH | 30.9% | 14.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 35.4% | 10.4% | 20.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.5% | 15.3% | 9.5% | RH | 31.9% | 15.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 36.8% | 18.2% | 20.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.5% | 14.0% | 9.2% | LH | 30.3% | 12.1% | 12.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 15.9% | 8.0% |
| Angels | Road | 32.7% | 11.4% | 13.2% | RH | 30.9% | 13.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 34.3% | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.1% | 12.8% | 12.5% | RH | 31.5% | 13.4% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.0% | 16.4% | 6.1% |
| Padres | Home | 28.9% | 13.0% | 7.2% | RH | 28.8% | 13.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 34.0% | 13.8% | 19.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.17 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 1.90 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 29.3% | 13.5% | 2.17 | 29.7% | 15.0% | 1.98 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 24.2% | 6.9% | 3.51 | 24.2% | 6.9% | 3.51 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 19.0% | 9.4% | 2.02 | 16.0% | 8.3% | 1.93 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.9% | 11.3% | 2.20 | 26.4% | 12.4% | 2.13 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 18.1% | 9.2% | 1.97 | 13.3% | 7.1% | 1.87 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 16.7% | 3.7% | 4.51 | 16.7% | 3.7% | 4.51 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.00 | 21.5% | 10.0% | 2.15 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.8% | 16.1% | 2.22 | 37.3% | 16.2% | 2.30 |
| Michael Blazek | MIL | 13.6% | 8.1% | 1.68 | 13.6% | 8.1% | 1.68 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 15.1% | 6.5% | 2.32 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 2.39 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 21.9% | 12.2% | 1.80 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 1.54 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.82 | 15.8% | 8.4% | 1.88 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 25.7% | 8.4% | 3.06 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 3.33 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 26.2% | 14.6% | 1.79 | 31.7% | 15.9% | 1.99 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM |
The one large sample size outlier is on the day slate.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.44 | 4.68 | 1.24 | 4.49 | 1.05 | 4.18 | 0.74 | 4.69 | 1.25 | 3.29 | 6.58 | 3.29 | 6.29 | 3 | 4.46 | 1.17 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 3.77 | 3.49 | -0.28 | 3.42 | -0.35 | 3.09 | -0.68 | 2.50 | -1.27 | 3.41 | 3.49 | 0.08 | 3.44 | 0.03 | 3.74 | 0.33 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 5.4 | 5.23 | -0.17 | 5.39 | -0.01 | 4.74 | -0.66 | 7.84 | 2.44 | 5.4 | 5.23 | -0.17 | 5.39 | -0.01 | 4.74 | -0.66 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.38 | 4.36 | -0.02 | 4.25 | -0.13 | 4.6 | 0.22 | 4.17 | -0.21 | 4.4 | 4.86 | 0.46 | 4.73 | 0.33 | 4.92 | 0.52 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.95 | 3.79 | -0.16 | 3.53 | -0.42 | 3.87 | -0.08 | 3.19 | -0.76 | 4.39 | 3.35 | -1.04 | 2.98 | -1.41 | 4.42 | 0.03 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.71 | 4.08 | -0.63 | 4 | -0.71 | 4.31 | -0.4 | 5.29 | 0.58 | 5.3 | 4.35 | -0.95 | 4.32 | -0.98 | 3.68 | -1.62 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 0 | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.59 | 4.59 | 2.81 | 2.81 | 6.38 | 6.38 | 0 | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.59 | 4.59 | 2.81 | 2.81 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.98 | 3.75 | 0.77 | 3.54 | 0.56 | 3.79 | 0.81 | 3.31 | 0.33 | 1.06 | 3.8 | 2.74 | 3.44 | 2.38 | 2.76 | 1.7 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.26 | 2.72 | 0.46 | 3.06 | 0.8 | 2.79 | 0.53 | 1.96 | -0.30 | 2.84 | 2.7 | -0.14 | 2.92 | 0.08 | 2.77 | -0.07 |
| Michael Blazek | MIL | 0 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 6.31 | 6.31 | 0 | 4.14 | 4.14 | 3.89 | 3.89 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 4.46 | 5.45 | 0.99 | 5.38 | 0.92 | 5.32 | 0.86 | 4.93 | 0.47 | 6.87 | 5.93 | -0.94 | 5.77 | -1.1 | 6.85 | -0.02 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 8.1 | 4.61 | -3.49 | 5.01 | -3.09 | 6.71 | -1.39 | 6.15 | -1.95 | 8.44 | 3.95 | -4.49 | 3.73 | -4.71 | 7.27 | -1.17 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 3.82 | 4.2 | 0.38 | 4.18 | 0.36 | 3.55 | -0.27 | 3.60 | -0.22 | 3.31 | 4.94 | 1.63 | 4.94 | 1.63 | 3.6 | 0.29 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.58 | 4.01 | -1.57 | 3.78 | -1.8 | 4.05 | -1.53 | 4.52 | -1.06 | 5.82 | 4.79 | -1.03 | 4.44 | -1.38 | 3.73 | -2.09 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 3.32 | 3.55 | 0.23 | 3.2 | -0.12 | 3.11 | -0.21 | 2.83 | -0.49 | 5.18 | 3.23 | -1.95 | 3.12 | -2.06 | 2.94 | -2.24 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM |
None of our choices today are very far separated from their estimators, though DRA really likes Chris Archer.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.290 | 0.272 | -0.018 | 50.2% | 0.188 | 3.7% | 88.4% | 86.2 | 4.50% | 31.60% | 266 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.284 | 0.326 | 0.042 | 41.4% | 0.22 | 10.9% | 81.4% | 88.8 | 5.40% | 38.90% | 355 |
| Chris O’Grady | MIA | 0.293 | 0.316 | 0.023 | 25.0% | 0.25 | 10.0% | 87.1% | 88.8 | 10.00% | 32.50% | 40 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.285 | 0.299 | 0.014 | 49.7% | 0.191 | 6.4% | 86.8% | 87.5 | 6.80% | 34.30% | 353 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.283 | 0.299 | 0.016 | 50.5% | 0.192 | 6.9% | 83.8% | 84.9 | 5.00% | 27.00% | 341 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.307 | 0.343 | 0.036 | 65.3% | 0.149 | 8.8% | 90.7% | 86.9 | 4.80% | 35.20% | 290 |
| Luke Weaver | STL | 0.294 | 0.333 | 0.039 | 33.3% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 95.0% | ||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.308 | 0.001 | 62.4% | 0.166 | 3.9% | 89.0% | 88.1 | 5.90% | 37.30% | 370 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.293 | 0.237 | -0.056 | 37.1% | 0.167 | 13.8% | 79.0% | 86 | 5.90% | 31.00% | 303 |
| Michael Blazek | MIL | 0.300 | 0.263 | -0.037 | 36.8% | 0.316 | 33.3% | 89.3% | ||||
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | 0.288 | 0.269 | -0.019 | 49.6% | 0.169 | 7.2% | 90.0% | 87.2 | 6.40% | 34.90% | 249 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | 0.293 | 0.368 | 0.075 | 41.5% | 0.191 | 8.1% | 84.1% | 89.9 | 12.50% | 42.70% | 96 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.004 | 46.2% | 0.185 | 3.9% | 85.1% | 89 | 5.10% | 40.00% | 295 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.303 | 0.348 | 0.045 | 46.5% | 0.216 | 9.2% | 88.4% | 89.8 | 9.70% | 41.70% | 278 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.294 | 0.257 | -0.037 | 55.8% | 0.198 | 8.3% | 87.4% | 85 | 4.30% | 35.10% | 208 |
| Chris Flexen | NYM | 0.320 |
Chris Archer has had a BABIP in the .290s almost every season of his career and a .293 rate. This year, his hard contact is showing up more in his BABIP than HR rate. Hard contact doesn’t always correlate strongly with BABIP and the line drive rate is not particularly elevated. Hard contact issues for him have sometimes shown up in his HR rate, while his 38 Hard% this season is career high by 5.2 points.
Zack Godley has an average profile, but generates lots of weak ground balls (or at least he had been prior to his last two starts). The guess is that his BABIP will increase at least a bit.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Zack Godley (3) has something funky going on in his last two starts, whether it’s been a conscious shift to value strikeout over ground balls or not, it has done that, but not with favorable overall results. We’re getting one of the top SwStr rates in baseball with a park upgrade for less than $9K tonight though, so let’s hope he figures out how to prevent runs again. If not, the strikeouts should give him a high floor.
Value Tier Two
Jon Lester (1) has a career high 11.1 SwStr% to go along with an above average strikeout rate and contact management that have been incredibly consistent for several seasons. The White Sox are above average against LHP, but that’s been fading for a while now, while their without two key bats who made them so (Frazier, A.Gacria). This should be a favorable spot and where you go if you want “safe” tonight.
Value Tier Three
Chris Archer (2) is the top strikeout arm on the slate and he’s certainly been accumulating a lot of them in recent starts, but is in the worst spot on the slate.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Luke Weaver is interesting, but concerning. He’s shown remarkable upside in a near 20 K-BB% in his big league debut last season and has continued that work at AAA this season while not experiencing the same contact problems. He’s in what might be a decent spot today, hosting the Diamondbacks, at a low price, but I’m unsure why he’s been limited in most of his recent starts.
Chris Flexen – Full disclosure, I am a Mets fan, so call me a homer or maybe I happen to have more insight into their prospects. That an organization that refuses to promote perhaps the top prospect in baseball would pluck from AA after just seven starts says something and it’s tough to find a better debut spot. Give the Padres, who strike out a quarter of the time, and a first time unseen bonus, where the opposing team may not have much information on him and I think he’s worth a shot. Oh…and he’s gone six innings in all of his seven AA starts (seven innings or more in each of his last three.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window