Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 23rd
This might be the strangest pitching article I’ve ever written. On a five game slate, there are just two usable pitchers tonight and they’re exactly who you think they are. I’m not going to be telling you anything you don’t know, but perhaps confirming your current thoughts and reaffirming why others probably should not be considered. It’s not even that there are difficult decisions tonight or any close calls. There’s Lester and there’s Harvey and that’s it. There, I just spoiled the entire thing for you. Read on if you are not yet convinced.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | -5.3 | 4.2 | 5.23 | 1.57 | 1.02 | 4.54 | 3.92 | CIN | 88 | 96 | 79 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 1.6 | 5.08 | 5.09 | 1.68 | 1.37 | 4.69 | 4.43 | ARI | 100 | 88 | 106 |
| John Lamb | CIN | -2.7 | 4.38 | 5.11 | 1.06 | 1.02 | 4.74 | 5.04 | SDG | 85 | 117 | 114 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 7.6 | 3.19 | 6.63 | 1.48 | 1 | 3.13 | 3.08 | FLA | 89 | 97 | 119 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -12.4 | 4.41 | 5.41 | 1.81 | 0.92 | 4.3 | 3.75 | ANA | 99 | 97 | 85 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | -5 | 3.53 | 6.24 | 1.24 | 0.96 | 3.8 | 3.61 | ATL | 69 | 77 | 85 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 4.1 | 4.8 | 5.91 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 5.12 | 4.61 | NYM | 99 | 98 | 85 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 2.3 | 4.48 | 5.34 | 1.46 | 0.92 | 4.23 | 5.59 | OAK | 92 | 83 | 54 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 3.3 | 4.02 | 6.02 | 1.01 | 1 | 4.11 | 4.88 | CHC | 112 | 117 | 135 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -5.3 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 1.37 | 3.08 | 4.18 | COL | 103 | 97 | 82 |
Jon Lester has gone at least six innings with seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts. Three of those starts were against the Phillies and Braves, but you can only pitch against the teams on the schedule. All of his numbers and rates are right in line with, if not slightly better than, his last two All Star level seasons and he has the best defense in the league behind him. The Marlins are an average offense with a 34.1 Hard%, but 15.6 K-BB% vs LHP.
Matt Harvey allowed four runs in six innings against these Braves last time out, striking out just five of 27 batters. With an average velocity just below 95 mph in his last two starts and a SwStr below 10% in four of his last six, he’s not as “back” as the Mets would like to fool fans into thinking. His K%, SwStr%, and ERA estimators over the last month match his season rates with the only change being his actual ERA reducing by a run and a half. The Braves are the second worst home offense in baseball (5.7 HR/FB, 26.4 Hard%) and third worst against RHP (6.2 HR/FB, 25.7 Hard%) and Harvey does have the fourth highest weak contact rate in the majors (25.1 Soft%).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Christian Friedrich (.300 BABIP – 78.9 LOB% – 7.7 HR/FB) has walked 11.3% of his batters with a K% about a point below average, striking out more than five just twice. He pitches in a great park, where he’s allowed all three of his HRs in four starts, but has not allowed a ball to leave the park in three road starts in Milwaukee, Arizona, and Colorado. Does that sound realistic? The Reds are a poor offense and not exactly unfavorable (16.9 K-BB% at home, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP), but they have a 16.7 HR/FB at home and a 16.2 HR/FB vs RHP. This is a below average pitcher in maybe a slightly above average spot.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Zack Greinke has gone at least seven innings in six of his last seven starts with at least six strikeouts in five of them. He’s gone at least six innings in every start since his first and would be a fine option in any other park on the road. If he struggled in Arizona though, Colorado should be even worse. The Rockies are an average offense with a run environment that multiplies their offense by well over 30%. They have a 9.4 K-BB%, 15.5 HR/FB, and 18.8 Hard-Soft% at home.
Kendall Graveman has struck out five or fewer in each of his last eight starts and has the worst defense, by far and by every metric, behind him. The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors (16.0% vs RHP). Pitching to contact is rarely a good idea if you have the ability not to, but is a poor outcome magnified when pitching for the A’s.
Wei-Yin Chen has the same league average K-BB% and similar ERA estimators from his American League years. Somehow, he’s allowing more HRs in Miami than he did in Baltimore though (15.3 HR/FB in 2016, 11.6 HR/FB career). His 15 HRs are already more than halfway to his career high of 29. His 37.2 Hard% is well above his career rate (30.3%) and previous career high (32.3%). He has tonight’s toughest matchup outside of Colorado. The Cubs have a double digit walk rate and a HR/FB above 14% both on the road and vs LHP.
Tim Lincecum has one of tonight’s top matchups. Oakland does not take walks and has just a 9.0 HR/FB vs RHP and 2.9 HR/FB over the last week. Lincecum averaged just over 88 mph, up a mile per hour from last year, in his first start, but struck out as many as he walked, just two. He stranded 85.7% of his runners though. He did strike out 19 of 66 AAA batters, but I don’t want to pay over $7K for him though.
Matt Wisler has had a ton of hard contact (20.1 Hard-Soft%) catch up with him, as expected. He’s nearly missing enough bats to be useful and hard contact in the air (0.88 GB/FB) isn’t as terrible in Atlanta. He actually has just an 18.8 LD% and 11.8 HR/FB with a .256 BABIP that has nearly opened a nice gap between his estimators and ERA. With less hard contact though, you’d figure he’d be allowing less than a HR per start (seven over his last three) and he’s only pitched in one power friendly park this season (Philadelphia). The Mets are an average offense. Lots of strikeouts (24.1% on the road, 23.3% vs RHP) with lots of power (16.1 HR/FB, 20.4 Hard-Soft% on the road, 14.8 HR/FB, 17.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). They have a 44.7 Hard% over the last week.
Eddie Butler has not been a good pitcher at home or on the road. He’s not even getting ground balls this year (43.7%). He has a 25.2 LD% with a 26.0 Hard-Soft% and a lot of contact with just a 15.3 K%. If there’s one bright spot, he’s greatly reduced his walk rate (5.1%) this year. The Diamondbacks are an offense that strikes out a lot (24.0% vs RHP, 31.0% over the last week), so it’s a shame Jon Gray isn’t pitching tonight because then we might have something to talk about. Sometimes this season it hasn’t worked out this way, but this game holds both of the worst pitcher matchups on the board tonight.
John Lamb has just a 4.3 K-BB% and might just be the worst pitching choice you could make tonight. He faces an offense tied for the third best wRC+ in baseball against LHP. Yes, I’m talking about the Padres. They have an 18.0 K-BB% on the road and 24.0 K% vs LHP, but also a 16.9 HR/FB against southpaws.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 19.3% | 10.1% | Road | 20.9% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 9.8% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | L2 Years | 12.2% | 9.1% | Home | 13.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| John Lamb | Reds | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.3% | Home | 20.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 14.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.9% | 5.4% | Road | 24.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 5.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.8% | Road | 16.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 23.2% | 5.4% | Road | 21.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 8.3% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 16.1% | 7.5% | Home | 14.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 4.2% |
| Tim Lincecum | Angels | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.2% | Home | 18.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.9% | 5.3% | Home | 18.9% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 4.4% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.2% | 4.8% | Road | 25.1% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 5.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 23.2% | 6.3% | LH | 22.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 22.0% | 7.3% | RH | 24.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 31.0% | 5.7% |
| Padres | Road | 24.7% | 6.7% | LH | 24.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.9% | 10.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 7.3% | LH | 23.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.1% |
| Angels | Home | 16.5% | 8.7% | RH | 16.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 5.0% |
| Braves | Home | 20.7% | 8.2% | RH | 19.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.0% |
| Mets | Road | 24.1% | 7.9% | RH | 23.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.6% | 6.3% | RH | 18.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 14.1% | 5.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.3% | 10.1% | LH | 20.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 17.7% | 13.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.6% | 9.2% | RH | 19.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.2% | 10.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Friedrich | Padres | L2 Years | 31.1% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 2016 | 31.7% | 7.7% | 13.0% | Road | 28.6% | 4.7% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.3% | 18.0% | 15.5% | 2016 | 39.0% | 19.1% | 26.0% | Home | 34.3% | 20.4% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 28.6% | 41.2% |
| John Lamb | Reds | L2 Years | 30.4% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 2016 | 36.7% | 13.0% | 16.4% | Home | 28.4% | 14.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 25.0% | 18.5% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.2% | 8.9% | 5.4% | 2016 | 28.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | Road | 27.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 11.1% | 2.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.2% | 15.7% | 13.0% | 2016 | 31.4% | 19.0% | 14.8% | Road | 27.6% | 20.8% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 11.1% | 14.7% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 2016 | 30.3% | 9.6% | 5.2% | Road | 26.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 2016 | 38.2% | 11.8% | 20.0% | Home | 32.7% | 8.6% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 26.7% | 23.1% |
| Tim Lincecum | Angels | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 2016 | 21.1% | 0.0% | 5.3% | Home | 31.0% | 4.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.9% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 2016 | 37.2% | 15.3% | 23.4% | Home | 31.9% | 12.2% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 26.9% | 38.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.8% | 8.9% | 4.7% | 2016 | 29.2% | 10.4% | 7.8% | Road | 25.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 8.7% | 14.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | Home | 32.3% | 16.7% | 16.2% | LH | 29.5% | 16.2% | 14.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 10.0% | 12.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.0% | 13.4% | 12.2% | RH | 33.2% | 13.2% | 15.0% | L7Days | 29.9% | 21.4% | 14.6% |
| Padres | Road | 33.3% | 13.6% | 16.3% | LH | 31.1% | 16.9% | 14.8% | L7Days | 34.6% | 8.9% | 12.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 29.9% | 11.2% | 8.5% | LH | 34.1% | 13.4% | 12.4% | L7Days | 32.7% | 19.5% | 13.7% |
| Angels | Home | 29.4% | 10.8% | 9.9% | RH | 30.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.2% | 12.5% | 2.4% |
| Braves | Home | 26.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | RH | 25.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 31.1% | 10.9% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Road | 34.3% | 16.1% | 20.4% | RH | 34.7% | 14.8% | 17.3% | L7Days | 44.7% | 11.8% | 27.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | RH | 29.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 30.3% | 2.9% | 13.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.4% | 14.7% | 14.3% | LH | 29.5% | 14.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 26.0% | 20.0% | 4.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.4% | 15.5% | 18.8% | RH | 32.4% | 15.4% | 15.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 19.1% | 8.2% | 2.33 | 21.2% | 9.1% | 2.33 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 15.3% | 7.2% | 2.13 | 13.8% | 6.5% | 2.12 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 14.3% | 7.0% | 2.04 | 16.1% | 6.1% | 2.64 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.8% | 10.4% | 2.48 | 28.8% | 12.6% | 2.29 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 16.8% | 9.3% | 1.81 | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.81 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 19.4% | 10.4% | 1.87 | 19.2% | 9.9% | 1.94 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.4% | 8.2% | 2.12 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 1.92 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 8.3% | 7.1% | 1.17 | 8.3% | 7.1% | 1.17 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 19.2% | 8.4% | 2.29 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.96 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.89 | 19.6% | 11.2% | 1.75 |
The only outlier today has pitched just six innings.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 3.15 | 4.82 | 1.67 | 4.61 | 1.46 | 3.97 | 0.82 | 3.23 | 4.19 | 0.96 | 4.09 | 0.86 | 3.74 | 0.51 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 6.26 | 4.41 | -1.85 | 4.29 | -1.97 | 5.14 | -1.12 | 9 | 4.81 | -4.19 | 4.6 | -4.4 | 6.74 | -2.26 |
| John Lamb | CIN | 4.75 | 5.29 | 0.54 | 5.14 | 0.39 | 5.17 | 0.42 | 4.28 | 5.08 | 0.8 | 4.86 | 0.58 | 5.06 | 0.78 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.06 | 3.33 | 1.27 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 2.97 | 0.91 | 1.24 | 2.7 | 1.46 | 2.65 | 1.41 | 2.13 | 0.89 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.87 | 4.55 | -0.32 | 4.43 | -0.44 | 5.19 | 0.32 | 3.86 | 4.6 | 0.74 | 4.37 | 0.51 | 3.9 | 0.04 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.76 | 4.23 | -0.53 | 4.06 | -0.7 | 3.64 | -1.12 | 3.19 | 4.24 | 1.05 | 4.19 | 1 | 3.57 | 0.38 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 4.23 | 4.56 | 0.33 | 4.78 | 0.55 | 4.62 | 0.39 | 6.83 | 4.59 | -2.24 | 4.56 | -2.27 | 6.34 | -0.49 |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 1.5 | 5.59 | 4.09 | 5.34 | 3.84 | 3.95 | 2.45 | 1.5 | 5.59 | 4.09 | 5.34 | 3.84 | 3.95 | 2.45 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 5.22 | 4.22 | -1 | 4.32 | -0.9 | 4.74 | -0.48 | 6.82 | 4.98 | -1.84 | 5.58 | -1.24 | 6.65 | -0.17 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.54 | 3.81 | 0.27 | 3.74 | 0.2 | 3.42 | -0.12 | 1.7 | 4.02 | 2.32 | 4.21 | 2.51 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
Jon Lester is in line or slightly better with all of his numbers and rates of the past two All Star seasons, as mentioned above, but his ERA is way lower. Part of that can be ascribed to a .268 BABIP, 30 points below his career average, that we won’t even complain about. He has a fine profile and is actually well above his great defense’s allowed BABIP. His 85.6 LOB% is over 10 points above career rate and 7.5 points higher than his previous career high. We’re still talking about an expected ERA around three.
Matt Harvey has a season .329 BABIP with a 25.4 LD%. Although he has one of the lowest exit velocities in the league (88.1 mph) and a 25.1 Soft%, it appears to be the launch angles that get him, though I still can’t figure out where on Baseball Savant to find them. His 65.1 LOB% is over 10 points below his career average (75.9%). Over the last month, his LOB% has normalized with a .230 BABIP.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Friedrich | SDG | 0.305 | 0.300 | -0.005 | 0.161 | 10.3% | 89.0% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.313 | 0.317 | 0.004 | 0.252 | 10.6% | 92.7% |
| John Lamb | CIN | 0.292 | 0.291 | -0.001 | 0.207 | 13.0% | 87.0% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.254 | 0.268 | 0.014 | 0.192 | 13.0% | 87.2% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.307 | 0.316 | 0.009 | 0.207 | 6.3% | 87.3% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.302 | 0.329 | 0.027 | 0.254 | 9.6% | 85.2% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.288 | 0.256 | -0.032 | 0.188 | 5.5% | 90.7% |
| Tim Lincecum | ANA | 0.294 | 0.211 | -0.083 | 0.263 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.302 | 0.303 | 0.001 | 0.221 | 3.1% | 88.7% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.299 | 0.283 | -0.016 | 0.179 | 12.3% | 91.6% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Tiers? We don’t need no stinking tiers today. It’s just two guys, separated a bit by overall rankings, but pretty similar in expected value. To put it into context, on a standard full slate, Lester might be the third best overall pitcher and both he and Harvey would probably be third tier guys.
Jon Lester (1) is today’s top pitcher and highest priced one by a wide margin ($3K on DK, $1.5K on FD). He’s in a marginal spot and having a fantastic year, even if not as good as his ERA suggests. His last month of starts has been even better and one of the best stretches of his career.
Matt Harvey (2) has been a slightly below average pitcher this season and a slightly below average pitcher over the last month. He’s facing one of the worst offenses in baseball though, and is the clear second choice to Lester on FanDuel for $9.5K. On FanDuel, for $3.6K less, he might be the top value. It is true that he has not covered his current cost in either start against Atlanta this season, if that’s a concern.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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