ALCS Game 2 Preview: Red Sox vs. Astros Odds & Prediction
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Game 2 of the ALCS, breaks down Red Sox vs. Astros odds and delivers his own prediction (and free pick!) for Saturday, October 16, 2021.
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +102 |
| Astros Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 16 |
| Time | 4:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Saturday afternoon, the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros will battle in the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park. Houston scored four runs last night off of Boston’s bullpen to secure a come-from-behind Game 1 victory. In Game 2, the Red Sox will send Nathan Eovaldi to the hill as they look to even up the series. He will be opposed by Luis Garcia. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Astros taking a commanding 2-0 series lead, pricing Houston as -120 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the ALCS.
Read more: Red Sox vs. Astros Series Preview
Boston Red Sox (+102)
Eovaldi was excellent for the Red Sox during the regular season with a 3.75 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 2.79 FIP across 182.1 innings of work. Though Eovaldi was at his best when pitching at Fenway Park, he was still strong on the road where he delivered a 3.39 FIP in 2021. In two postseason starts this October, he has been outstanding, allowing only two earned runs in 10.1 innings. He has sixteen strikeouts against only one walk during that span. Eovaldi has a tough assignment against a strong Houston lineup on Friday, but he should nonetheless be able to keep the Red Sox competitive in this contest.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Boston ranked second in OPS, second in ISO, 19th in walk rate, and 17th in strikeout percentage. The Red Sox are a heavy right-handed hitting lineup, but Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo are capable of plenty of damage as the primary left-handed hitters in this offense. In three games against right-handed starting pitching this October, the Red Sox are undefeated, averaging six runs per game.
It was less than ideal for Manager Alex Cora to burn through seven relief pitchers in yesterday’s loss, but none of those seven arms threw more than 18 pitches. Thus, everyone should be available if needed again in Game 2. Considering that Boston had a few days off prior to this series, Cora’s aggressive bullpen management is unlikely to become a concern until at least Game 3. More concerning is the lack of run-prevention from this unit, as they continue to blow late-inning leads.
Houston Astros (-139)
Garcia had a 3.30 ERA, 3.98 xERA, and a 3.63 FIP for the Astros in 155.1 innings of work during the regular season. He was significantly better at Minute Maid Park than he was when pitching on the road. Pitching at home, Garcia posted a 2.97 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, 28.8 strikeout percentage, and a 6.1 percent walk rate. In his only start of the division series against the Chicago White Sox, Garcia was tagged for five earned runs in only 2.2 innings, but that outing was on the road. Bettors should expect a better performance from Garcia on Saturday afternoon, despite the fact that he is facing a dangerous Boston lineup.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s game preview, Houston’s path to victory does not solely rely on their starting pitcher. Against right-handed pitching during the regular season, Houston’s lineup ranked fourth in OPS, ninth in ISO, 11th in walk rate, and had the second-best strikeout percentage of any team in the league. In the division series, Houston scored 12 runs against Lance Lynn, Lucas Gioltio, and Dylan Cease—all right-handed pitchers—and chased each of those starters from the game before they completed five innings. The Astros are one of the best hitting teams in Major League Baseball. Houston is likely to generate a number of run-scoring opportunities once again in Game 2 against Eovaldi.
Similar to Boston, Houston has significant question marks in their bullpen. Manager Dusty Baker has two fantastic options at the backend of his bullpen with Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly, but Phil Maton, Yimi Garcia, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley are far from elite options to bridge the gap from the starter to the latter frames. Still, this unit performed admirably yesterday—allowing only one earned run in 6.1 innings after Framber Valdez was chased from the contest in the third inning. Cristian Javier is unlikely to be used today after tossing 28 pitches in yesterday’s victory, but each of the other six relievers who appeared in Game 1 should be good to go again today. Houston did not play Wednesday or Thursday this week, so there are no usage concerns for Saturday’s action.
Game 2 Picks
These are two evenly matched teams with elite offenses and suspect pitching staffs. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Minute Maid Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league in day games—ranking fifth in offensive production out of 30 stadiums. Eovaldi and Garcia are good, but not great starting pitchers. Both bullpens are vulnerable. Bettors should expect a high-scoring affair for the second day in a row. Take the over.
PICKS: Over 8 (-145)
Image Credit: Imagn