Astros vs. Braves World Series Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Astros vs. Braves Game 4 Odds
| Astros Odds | -104 |
| Braves Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 30 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Saturday evening, the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves will play Game 4 of the 2021 World Series at Truist Park. The Braves erupted for five runs in the first three innings in Game 1 en route to a 6 to 2 victory. The Astros scored five runs in the first two innings of Game 2 on their way to tying up the series. In Game 3, Ian Anderson threw five no-hit innings, and the Atlanta offense scraped across two runs to swing the series back in their favor. This evening, Houston will send Zack Greinke to the hill as they look to even the series. Atlanta will counter with a bullpen game Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing Atlanta as -112 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 4 of the World Series in Atlanta.
Houston Astros
Across 171.0 innings of work during the regular season, Greinke posted a 4.16 ERA, 4.42 xERA, and a 4.71 FIP. However, he was one of the least effective pitchers in baseball over the final two months of the campaign—posting a 6.09 ERA and a 6.15 FIP in his last nine trips to the mound. Consequently, he has only been entrusted with 2.1 innings of work this postseason, during which he has been unimpressive with a 7.71 ERA and an 11.74 FIP. Greinke threw only 21 pitches in his lone appearance during the division series and only 37 pitches in his outing during the American League Championship Series. Thus, he is likely going to serve as more of an elongated opener than a traditional starter in this contest. Greinke could be in for a rough outing this evening, having not pitched in 11 days.
The starter for the Braves tonight is left-handed, but it is likely that Houston sees a healthy mix of both right- and left-handed pitching in Game 4. Facing southpaws this year, the Astros ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 14th in walk-rate, and had the best strikeout percentage of any lineup in the league. Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, ninth in ISO, 11th in walk rate, and had the second-best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in 10 of their 13 postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. The colder weather and the different looks could give this Houston lineup trouble tonight, but expect disciplined at-bats from this group, and for Houston to create at least a few run-scoring opportunities.
Houston’s relief unit has been surprisingly reliable for the most part during this postseason. Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Pressly have formed a dominant foursome at the backend of this bullpen. As the series progresses, the main concern for Manager Dusty Baker is the same concern that his opponent faces—a lack of depth. After forcing the bullpen to cover seven innings in Game 1, Baker was forced to use four relievers in Game 2 after Urquidy was removed after just five innings of work. Luis Garcia lasted only 3.2 innings in Game 3, prompting Baker to use five relievers, including Stanek and Graveman, in a losing effort. Yimi Garcia is likely the only member of the bullpen unavailable for tonight’s contest, but fatigue is increasingly going to become a concern.
Atlanta Braves
Not many people envisioned Dylan Lee starting a World Series game, but here we are. Lee was excellent in AAA this summer with a 1.54 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in 46.2 innings of work. He was less spectacular in a small sample size in the big leagues in 2021—posting a 9.00 ERA, 11.36 xERA, and a 6.67 FIP. Understandably, he has been limited to only 2.2 innings of exposure this postseason, during which he has allowed one earned run and recorded three strikeouts. Against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series, Lee threw 38 pitches in an appearance, so it is possible that Manager Brian Snitker will try to get Lee through the entire Houston lineup once tonight, depending on his efficiency and effectiveness. Similar to Greinke, Lee is a risky option for bettors to trust in this one.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Atlanta ranked sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO, 13th in walk-rate, and 23rd in strikeout percentage. Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, Jorge Solder, and Joc Pederson have all been tremendous this postseason, each posting an OPS of .769 or better. Ozzie Albies saw his bat wake up in Game 1, but has not made much of an impact on this series in Game 2 or Game 3. The Braves have scored five runs or more in four of their last eight games. However, they also have three games in that stretch in which they have scored two runs. This is a volatile offense that is hard for bettors to trust on a nightly basis, but they have a favorable matchup in this one against Greinke.
Manager Brian Snitker has been recklessly aggressive with his top bullpen options this postseason, but it has proved to be a successful strategy to this point. Yet, he might have to be more mindful of his relief unit usage after Charlie Morton exited Game 1 in the third inning with an injury. Tyler Matzek has appeared in 11 of Atlanta’s 13 playoff games. Luke Jackson has been called upon 10 times. Will Smith has made nine trips to the mound. Matzek, Jackson, and Smith appeared yesterday, but this postseason has demonstrated that these three important arms are going to be available, regardless of usage concerns. Expect Snitker to be extremely aggressive with his bullpen in this contest as he seeks a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Braves-Astros Pick
These are two evenly-matched teams and the price on the money line reflects that fact. Instead of playing russian roulette on the side in this game, bettors should instead turn their attention to the total. Similar to the weather conditions from last night—a game that finished with only two total runs, at first pitch this evening, the temperature is forecasted to be in the low-50s. For the second night in a row, conditions are not conducive to hitting the baseball out of the yard. Bettors should consider a small wager on the under in this one, despite the fact that there are two hittable pitchers on the mound to begin this game.
PICKS: Under 9 (-110)
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