Braves vs. Phillies, Game 4: Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | -122 |
| Phillies Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 15 |
| Time | 2:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
On Friday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will battle in Game 4 of the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park. In Game 1, the Phillies’ offense tagged Max Fried for six runs in the first four innings en route to a 7-6 victory. In Game 2, Philadelphia was shutout in a 3-0 defeat, but rebounded for a dominating 9-1 victory in Game 3. Today, the Phillies will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard as they look to punch their ticket to the League Championship Series. Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the hill, with the hope of sending the series back to Truist Park for a win-or-go-home Game 5. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair in this one, pricing Atlanta as slight -122 road favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 4of the National League Divisions Series.
Atlanta Braves
Across his final 14 regular season starts, Charlie Morton delivered a 4.50 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and a 1.24 WHIP. In that span, he was primarily hit-hard on the road, finishing 2022 with a 5.09 FIP, 23.6 strikeout percentage, 9.0 percent walk rate, and a 1.39 WHIP in outings away from Truist Park this summer compared to a 3.47 FIP, 32.8 strikeout percentage, 8.3 percent walk rate, and a 1.08 WHIP at home. Morton also exhibited stark righty/lefty splits this season, with a 5.11 FIP and a 1.23 WHIP against left-handed batters compared to a 3.41 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP against right-handed batters. On Saturday, Morton will likely only see four left-handed hitters – Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott. If Morton can manage to limit the damage by these individuals, he has an opportunity to pitch well in a key situation for the Braves.
Atlanta struggled mightily down the stretch against southpaws, but remained strong against right-handed pitching – ranking 5th in OPS, 1st in ISO, and 5th in HardHit percentage over the final 30 days of the regular season. Despite scoring only one run on Friday, the Braves managed to have seven baserunners against Aaron Nola in his 6.0 innings of work. Poor execution with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) ultimately led to a poor offensive output in a blowout loss. If this group can improve upon a 1-for-9 performance with RISP on Saturday, they should be able to have no shortage of runs on the scoreboard by the end of the game.
Atlanta has, arguably, the best bullpen of any team left playing baseball this October. On Friday, Manager Brian Snitker’s high-leverage relievers never made their way into the contest, due to the large deficit his team was facing. In last fall’s 16-game run to a World Series title, Manager Brian Snitker used Tyler Matzek in 13 games, Luke Jackson in 11 games, and Will Smith in 11 games out of the arm barn. Simply, Snitker will not be shy with his usage of Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, and Collin McHugh on Saturday with the season on the line. Atlanta’s relief corps ranked 5th in FIP, 4th in WHIP, and 5th in strikeout percentage during the second-half of the season. Expect this unit to be called upon at the earliest sign of trouble for Morton.
Philadelphia Phillies
In nine turns through the rotation after the trade deadline this year, Noah Syndergaard had a 4.12 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 13.7 strikeout percentage, 4.0 percent walk rate, and a 1.32 WHIP. These numbers were compiled against the Washington Nationals (three starts), Miami Marlins (two starts), Cincinnati Reds (two starts), Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, and Toronto Blue Jays. Entering play in Game 4, Syndergaard has not appeared in live action in 13 days. Facing a talented Atlanta lineup, the veteran right-hander is vulnerable.
Philadelphia hit right-handed pitching better than almost any other team in the league during the month of September. Across the final 30 days of the regular season, the Phillies’ offense ranked 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 12th in walk rate, and 8th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. In that stretch, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Brandon Marsh, Bryce Harper, Bryston Stott, and Rhys Hoskins each posted a .722 OPS or better against right-handed pitching. Schwarber and Realmuto combined for 16 home runs in only 167 such plate appearances. In two games against the Cardinals in the opening round, Philadelphia scored all eight of their runs against right-handers. Yesterday, this offense tagged Spencer Strider for five earned runs in only 2.1 innings of work. Philadelphia should be able to put pressure on Morton in the early portion of this contest.
In their Game 1 victory, the Philadelphia bullpen combined to allow five earned runs in 5.2 innings. Connor Brogdon, Seranthony Dominguez, Zach Eflin, and Andrew Bellatti each tossed at least 17 pitches. Eflin struggled mightily in the 9th inning for the second time in three appearances this fall. Manager Rob Thomson used Jose Alvarado, Brad Hand, and Connor Brogdon each for an inning in Friday’s victory, with none of them tossing more than 15 pitches. Everyone should be available in the latter frames for this arm barn on Saturday. Still, it is worth noting that the Phillies’ arm barn ranked 11th in FIP, 29th in WHIP, 10th in strikeout percentage, 23rd in walk rate, and 28th in left-on-base percentage following the All-Star break. The final nine outs of this game could be an adventure if the Phillies find themselves ahead.
Phillies vs. Braves Pick
After being acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline, Noah Syndergaard made eight starts that lasted longer than 2.0 innings. He allowed at least three earned runs in six of those eight outings, and allowed four or more runs in three of those trips to the hill. In a win-or-go-home situation, the Atlanta Braves should be well-prepared and focused at the plate. Expect a number of quality at-bats from a high-powered offense, and for this group to have a great opportunity to cash their team total – take the over.
PICKS: Atlanta Braves Total Runs o4.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn