Best Home Run Bets Today | Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today on Aug 31
Monday’s home run board on Polymarket is stacked, giving traders a long list of contracts to weigh across the night’s MLB action.
We ranked the top five home run props in each game by implied probability, building out the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today no matter which matchup interests you.
Every matchup below also includes a single best pick, the highest-priced contract on that board, so you know exactly where the market’s confidence is concentrated.
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How We Pick the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today
Every player on these boards comes straight from Polymarket’s home run market for that specific matchup, ranked by the Yes price on the 1+ home run contract.
Our top pick in each game carries the highest implied probability of that hitter going deep, based on where the rest of the market is leaning, which makes it the fastest shortcut to the Best Home Run Bets Today.
Giants vs Braves: Best Home Run Bets Today
Atlanta enters at 82-55 on a hot streak, while San Francisco sits at 56-81 as the road team closing out a lost season.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Matt Olson (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Olson has been Atlanta’s most consistent power threat all year against a first-time opener.
- Rafael Devers (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Devers leads the Giants in homers this season and gives San Francisco its best shot at doing damage.
- Michael Harris II (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Harris has been a steady middle-of-the-order bat for a Braves lineup that’s clicking right now.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Acuña’s price slid five points today, but he remains a threat against an inexperienced arm.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Baldwin has quietly provided pop from the catcher spot for Atlanta all season.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Matt Olson tops this board at 22%, tied with Rafael Devers for the highest price in the matchup. Atlanta’s first baseman gets the edge as our pick given his season-long consistency against a Giants opener making just his fifth career appearance. He’s been the steadier force in the middle of a red-hot Braves lineup.
Padres vs Reds: Best Home Run Bets Today
San Diego (72-65) sends Michael King to the mound against a Cincinnati staff that’s allowed 19 home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Tatis remains San Diego’s top power threat against a Reds staff that’s been bleeding home runs lately.
- Jackson Merrill (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Merrill has emerged as one of the Padres’ most dangerous bats all season.
- JJ Bleday (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Bleday rounds out a Padres lineup that should feast on Cincinnati’s shaky pitching tonight.
- Manny Machado (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): Machado remains a steady power source in the middle of San Diego’s order.
- Eugenio Suárez (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Suárez gives the Padres another legitimate threat further down the lineup.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill are tied at 22%, but Tatis gets our nod as the top pick. San Diego’s star has been the most consistent power threat in this lineup all year, and Cincinnati’s staff has been about as generous as it gets with the long ball lately.
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Mets vs Rays: Best Home Run Bets Today
Tampa Bay (82-54) leads the AL East and sends Ian Seymour to the mound, while a struggling Mets staff (61-76) has allowed 13 home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Junior Caminero (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Caminero has been one of Tampa Bay’s most explosive young bats all season.
- Juan Soto (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Soto gives the Mets their top power threat against a Rays club chasing a fourth straight home win.
- Francisco Lindor (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Lindor gained a point today and continues to anchor the middle of the Mets order.
- Luis Robert Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Robert has developed into a steady power bat for Tampa Bay’s lineup.
- Jonathan Aranda (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 89%): Aranda rounds out a top five that leans mostly toward the home dugout.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Junior Caminero leads this board outright at 22%. Tampa Bay’s young slugger has been one of the most explosive bats in the league all season, and a struggling Mets staff only adds to the appeal.
Mariners vs Red Sox: Best Home Run Bets Today
Seattle (64-73) sends George Kirby to Fenway against Boston’s Payton Tolle (74-63), with the Red Sox having allowed 12 home runs over their last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Abreu tops the board for Boston against a Mariners staff that’s had its own long-ball issues.
- Julio Rodríguez (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Rodríguez remains Seattle’s most dangerous bat even amid a four-game losing streak.
- Randy Arozarena (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 87%): Arozarena’s price slid two points today, but he’s still a threat every time he’s in the box.
- Taylor Ward (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 92%): Ward gives Boston another power option in the middle of the lineup.
- Dominic Canzone (1+ HR: Yes 10%, No 91%): Canzone rounds out a top five that leans slightly toward the home dugout.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Wilyer Abreu sits atop this board at 16%. Boston’s outfielder gets the call as our pick, with Cal Raleigh‘s recent power surge, six homers over his last 10 games, still worth watching even outside the top spot.
Marlins vs Nationals: Best Home Run Bets Today
Miami (69-68) sends Ryan Gusto to the mound against Washington’s Will Dion, who’s making his MLB debut, with the Nationals having allowed 12 home runs over their last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Heriberto Hernández (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Hernández tops this board for Miami against a Nationals rookie making his first career start.
- Kyle Stowers (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 84%): Stowers has been a steady power source for the Marlins all season.
- Abimelec Ortiz (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 87%): Ortiz’s price dropped five points today, but he remains a threat in this lineup.
- CJ Abrams (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Abrams gives Washington its top power option against a Marlins staff that’s been solid lately.
- Daylen Lile (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Lile rounds out a tightly bunched top five on this board.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Heriberto Hernández leads this board at 20%. Miami’s hitter draws the softest matchup of the night, facing a Nationals starter making his MLB debut.
Brewers vs Cubs: Best Home Run Bets Today
Milwaukee (85-52) owns the best record in baseball and sends Kyle Harrison to the mound against Chicago’s Clay Holmes, one of the sharpest pitching matchups on the board.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 77%): Crow-Armstrong has been one of the Cubs’ most dynamic bats all season and leads this board.
- Seiya Suzuki (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Suzuki’s price ticked up a point today, a small sign of positive momentum heading in.
- Jake Bauers (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): Bauers has carved out a productive role in the middle of Chicago’s lineup this year.
- Jackson Chourio (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Chourio remains one of Milwaukee’s most explosive young bats even against a tough lefty.
- Alex Bregman (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Bregman gained a point today and continues to anchor the middle of the Brewers order.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Pete Crow-Armstrong tops this board at 24%, the single highest price of the night to that point. Chicago’s outfielder gets the nod even with two elite arms on the mound in this one.
White Sox vs Astros: Best Home Run Bets Today
Chicago (72-64) leads the AL Central and visits an Astros staff (69-68) that’s allowed 11 home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Munetaka Murakami (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Murakami has developed into a real power threat for the White Sox this season.
- Yordan Alvarez (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Alvarez remains Houston’s most dangerous bat even in a rough recent stretch for the Astros’ pitching staff.
- Colson Montgomery (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Montgomery gained a point today and continues to develop into a real threat for Chicago.
- Miguel Vargas (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 84%): Vargas has been red hot lately, slashing .355/.545/.484 over his last 10 games.
- Christian Walker (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Walker rounds out a top five that leans toward the visiting White Sox tonight.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Munetaka Murakami and Yordan Alvarez are tied at 22%, but Murakami gets the call as our pick. Houston’s leaky staff, a 5.52 ERA over its last 10 games, makes the White Sox side especially appealing.
The board only gets more interesting from here, with plenty of home run value still on the table.
Yankees vs Angels: Best Home Run Bets Today
New York (78-59) just took three of four from Boston, while Los Angeles (52-85) starts rookie Elmer Rodríguez, who carries a 4.70 ERA through his first five career appearances.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Ben Rice (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Rice tops this board against a rookie starter making just his fifth career appearance.
- Mike Trout (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Trout remains a threat every time he steps in the box, even in a lost Angels season.
- Trent Grisham (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 87%): Grisham has provided steady pop from the outfield for New York all year.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 89%): Garcia continues to be one of the lone bright spots in a difficult Angels season.
- Zach Neto (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Neto rounds out a top five that leans slightly toward the home dugout.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Ben Rice tops this board at 18%. New York’s hitter draws the softer matchup here, facing a rookie starter making just his fifth career appearance.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Best Home Run Bets Today
Philadelphia (77-60) sends Aaron Nola to Chase Field against Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt (73-65, 7-1, 3.51 ERA), one of the more reliable arms in the desert this year.
Top 5 Home Run Props
- Kyle Schwarber (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Schwarber has been Philadelphia’s premier power bat all season and leads this board comfortably.
- Bryce Harper (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Harper remains one of the most dangerous middle-of-the-order threats in the league.
- Corbin Carroll (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): Carroll gives Arizona a legitimate top-of-the-order power threat tonight.
- Lars Nootbaar (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 89%): Nootbaar gained two points today, a modest but notable bump for the Diamondbacks outfielder.
- Max Kepler (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 90%): Kepler rounds out a top five that leans heavily toward the Phillies’ lineup tonight.
Best Pick: Best Home Run Prop Today
Kyle Schwarber leads this board comfortably at 22%, well ahead of the next name on the list. Philadelphia’s slugger has been the team’s premier power bat all season, and that consistency makes him the pick here.
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Final Thoughts on the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today
Ballpark and pitching-staff context matter just as much as the raw price tonight, with Coors Field’s altitude giving the Orioles-Rockies board an extra boost across its entire top five.
Leaky pitching staffs in Cincinnati, Houston and New York also stand out as spots where the board’s implied probabilities line up with real recent form, not just name recognition.
Taken together, this board makes for a genuinely deep look at the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today across the exchange.
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